...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REMAINS QUIET FOR NOW...

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.MARGINAL RISK FOR FOR THUNDERSTORMS DAY 1-2

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DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK 

MARGINAL RISK

DAY 2 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK 

MARGINAL RISK

DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK 

MARGINAL/ SLIGHT RISK

 

...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...

ACCORDING TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER THE NEXT THREE DAYS SHOULD BE SEVERE STORM FREE.  ALTHOUGH DAY 1-2 DOES HAVE A CHANCE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS MAGINAL RISK AREAS IS EXPECTED, HOWEVER, WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS SOME CELLS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH OR HIGHER, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING COULD OCCUR.

WINTER WEATHER MOVES EAST FROM THE PACIFIC AND A COMBINATION OF MIX PRECITIATION  ICE, SLEET TURNING TO SNOW.  SEE BELOW MAPS FOR THE LATEST AND STAY TUNED TO STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER  FOR UPDATES.

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DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK

DAY 2

Surface Fronts and Sea-Level Pressures

FRIDAY-MONDAY MAP ANIMATION

National Forecast Chart

FRIDAY-MONDAY MAP ANIMATION

GEFS MODEL ENSEMBLE 00Z ANIMATION

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK...

 

THERE IS NO SEVERE STORMS FORECAST IN THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE.  STORM PREDICITION CENTER FOR DAILY UPDATES.  THERE ARE SOME AREAS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 

THERE ARE SOME AREAS WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FORECAST MAPS FROM WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BELOW.

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SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

DAY1 

DAY 2

DAY3

DAY 5 A (SLIGHT RISK)

ANIMATED MAPS

CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

WPC NATIONAL FORECAST MAP 

NATIONAL RADAR MAP

GEFS ENSEMBLE MODEL

...Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch 572...

 

STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUES  (PDS) TORNADO WATCH #572

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood High High Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind High Low Severe Hail 2"+ Hail Moderate Moderate SEL2 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 572 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Arkansas Northern and Central Louisiana Central Mississippi * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1210 PM until 700 PM CST. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Supercells are expected to develop this afternoon and track northeastward across much of northeast Louisiana and central Mississippi. Parameters appear favorable for strong and long-tracked tornadoes this afternoon and early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles north of Fort Polk LA to 55 miles south of Tupelo MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart

NOAA / National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction Storm Prediction Center 120 David L. Boren Blvd. Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A. spc.feedback@noaa.gov Page last modified: November 29, 2022	Disclaimer Information Quality Help Glossary	Privacy Policy Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) About Us Career Opportunities

...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION (PDS) IS SETTING UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1978
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1120 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

   Areas affected...northern LA...extreme southeast Arkansas and into
   central MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 291720Z - 291945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A PDS tornado watch will be needed by 19z/1pm CT for
   portions of northern Louisiana, extreme southeast Arkansas and into
   central Mississippi. Tornadoes, a couple potentially long-track and
   strong, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible into the
   evening hours.

   DISCUSSION...Rich Gulf boundary-layer moisture continues to rapidly
   return northward across the Lower MS Valley vicinity. Surface
   dewpoints near 65 F have developed as far north as south-central MS
   and northern LA late this morning. Meanwhile, the marine warm front,
   roughly delineating 70 F dewpoints, extends west-to east from
   southeast TX through central LA into southern MS. Moisture should
   continue to rapidly increase across northern LA into far southeast
   AR and MS through the afternoon. A plume of steep midlevel lapse
   rates will continue to overspread the region, aiding in MLCAPE
   increasing to 1000-2000 J/kg by mid-afternoon. Breaks in cloud cover
   across northeast LA into central MS will further aid in
   destabilization as greater heating occurs within these cloud breaks.

   Strong vertical shear, with effective shear magnitudes greater than
   45 kt is already in place across the region. Regional VWPs and
   profilers already show enlarged, favorably curved low-level
   hodographs with 0-1 km SRH values greater than 250 m2/s. Large-scale
   ascent will remain modest across the region, resulting in a large
   warm sector supporting discrete supercells. One or more bands of
   supercells will be possible within low-level confluence zones. 

   A particular dangerous situation is expected to develop across
   northeast LA into central MS through this evening as multiple
   supercells track across the area. Tornadoes, a couple strong and
   long-track, will be possible, in addition to large hail (scattered
   2+ inch) and damaging gusts.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 11/29/2022

...TODAYS SEVERE WEATHER COVERS A LARGE AREA...

 

MODERATE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR A PORTION OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.  A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR TORNADO IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA AS WELL.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES.

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ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
   WOUS40 KWNS 290533
   ALZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-291800-

   PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1133 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022

   ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Mississippi
   Valley later today and tonight...

   * LOCATIONS...
     Mississippi
     Northeast Louisiana
     Southeast Arkansas
     Far Western Alabama
     Far Southwest Tennessee

   * HAZARDS...
     Several tornadoes, a few intense
     Scattered large hail, some baseball size
     Isolated damaging winds

   * SUMMARY...
     Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, very large
     hail, and a few severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon
     into the overnight period across parts of the lower to mid
     Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southeast. A few strong
     tornadoes will be possible.

   Preparedness actions...

   Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
   of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, 
   weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
   watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
   during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
   your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
   interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

   &&

   ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2022

Severe Weather Outlook

Tornado Probability Outlook (Significant Threat in the black hatched line area)

Damaging Wind Probability Outlook

Hail Probability (Significant Hail threat in the black line hatched area)

...TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 28, 2022...

 

THE TROPICS REMAIN QUIET.  NO THREAT TO THE U.S.

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. 

$$
Forecaster Pasch

...TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 25, 2022...

 

HOPE YOU ALL HAD A WONDERFUL THANKSGIVING!

THE TROPICS REMAIN QUIET AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE END OF THE 2022 HURRICANE SEASON.  

THE EURO MODEL DOES NOT SEE MUCH TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, BUT THE GFS SHOWS A BIT OF ACTIVITY OVER THE BAHAMAS ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.  NONE OF THAT ACTIVITY WOULD AFFECT THE U.S. MAINLAND.  

DECEMBER IS NOT IMMUNE FROM TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, SO ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE AFTER THE END OF THE SEASON.  USUALLY THOSE STORMS THAT FORM IN DECEMBER ARE OUT AT SEA STORMS AND ARE USUALLY WEAKER SYSTEMS, SO NO WORRIES ENJOY THE HOLIDAYS.

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000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251738
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM PST Fri Nov 25 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven