Thursday, January 12, 2023

BUSY SEVERE STORM DAY FOR THE SOUHEAST U.S., STAY ALERT SET NOAA WEATHER RADIO ON ALERT!

 THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEED TO BE READY FOR SEVERE WEATHER STORMS TODAY:

ENHANCED RISK:  Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Sandy Springs, GA...

SLIGHT RISK: Charlotte, NC...Nashville, TN...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Knoxville, TN...Huntsville, AL...

MARGINAL RISK:  New Orleans, LA...Louisville, KY...Greensboro, NC...Baton Rouge, LA...Winston-Salem, NC...



TORNADO WATCH #0017

FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 17
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   655 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northern and central Alabama
     Central and eastern Mississippi
     Exreme southern middle Tennessee

   * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 655 AM until
     100 PM CST.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 75 mph possible
     Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A broken band of pre-frontal storms will increase in
   intensity through the day while spreading eastward from Mississippi
   into Alabama.  The more intense supercells could produce tornadoes,
   including a strong tornado or two, along with isolated large hail. 
   The threat for damaging winds up to 75 mph will increase through the
   day as some upscale growth occurs and bowing segments evolve through
   the day.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Huntsville AL to
   45 miles west of Pine Belt MS. For a complete depiction of the watch
   see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.





Wednesday, January 11, 2023

DAY 2 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK SLIGHT RISK, STAY UP TO DATE WITH STORM PREDICTION CENTER UPDATES!

STORM PREDICTION CENTER CALLING FOR A SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Huntsville, AL...

Charlotte, NC...Nashville, TN...New Orleans, LA...Louisville, KY...Lexington-Fayette, KY...

DAY 2 TORNADO OUTLOOK FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

2% ...Charlotte, NC...Nashville, TN...Atlanta, GA...Louisville, KY...Lexington-Fayette, KY...


DAY 2 DAMAGING WIND OUTLOOK FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

15% ...Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Huntsville, AL...

5% ...Charlotte, NC...Nashville, TN...New Orleans, LA...Louisville, KY...Lexington-Fayette, KY...





 

A LOOK AT WEEKEND TEMPS..COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTHWARD, BUT THE CANADIAN MODEL OVER DOING IT!

LOOKING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF 40S FOR THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON SUNDAY MORNING.  THE ONLY OUTLIAR MODEL IS THE CANADIAN MODEL WHICH SHOWS 32 DEGREES FOR BROWARD AND A SMALL AREA OF NORTHERN MIAMI DADE.  THAT TO ME IS INCORRECT FOR A 12Z MODEL RUN ON SUNDAY.

I SAY IN THE 40S IN THE MORNING SUNDAY 60S-50S AROUND NOON TIME.  

RTW

REMEMBER THESE ARE LONG RANGE FORECAST AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.  STAY TUNED FOR DAILY UPDATES.

EUROPEAN 2-METER TEMP MODEL

AMERICAN 2-METER TEMP MODEL


CANADIAN 2-METER TEMP MODEL (TO BULISH OVER DOING IT)


DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK MARGINAL RISK

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DAY (MARGINAL RISK) FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.

Evansville, IN...Clarksville, TN...Jonesboro, AR...Owensboro, KY...Conway, AR...


MARGINAL RISK

DAY 1 HAIL OUTLOOK 5%


DAY 1 TORNADO OUTLOOK 2%

DAY 1 DAMAGING WIND OUTLOOK 





Tuesday, January 10, 2023

LOOKS LIKE MORE COLD AIR FOR FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND

SEEMS LIKE MORE COLD AIR FORM THE ARCTIC MOVING SOUTH FOR THIS WEEKEND.  MAYBE NOT AS EXTREME AS IT WAS IN DECEMBER 2022 BUT YOU WILL FEEL IT.

REMEMBER THESE ARE LONG RANGE FORECAST AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.  STAY TUNED FOR DAILY UPDATES.




SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR DAYS 1-3 ALSO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

 


THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE FOLLOWING AREAS TODAY:

Los Angeles, CA...San Diego, CA...San Jose, CA...Las Vegas, NV...Long Beach, CA...

DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY 2% FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

Los Angeles, CA...Long Beach, CA...Fresno, CA...Santa Ana, CA...Anaheim, CA...

DAY 1 DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY 5% FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

Los Angeles, CA...San Diego, CA...San Jose, CA...Las Vegas, NV...Long Beach, CA...

DAY 2 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK MARGINAL RISK FOR THE 

FOLLOWING AREAS:

Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...Tyler, TX...

DAY 2 TORNADO PROBABILITY 2% FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Tyler, TX...Fort Smith, AR...

DAY 2 DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY 5% FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...Tyler, TX...


DAY 2 HAIL PROBABILITY 5% FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

Shreveport, LA...Tyler, TX...Fort Smith, AR...College Station, TX...Longview, TX...

DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:
Slight Risk: Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Huntsville, AL...

Nashville, TN...New Orleans, LA...Louisville, KY...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Baton Rouge, LA...

DAY 3 PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS
Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Huntsville, AL...
Nashville, TN...New Orleans, LA...Louisville, KY...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Baton Rouge, LA...

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ANIMATED) DAYS 1-3

NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST CHARTS (ANIMATED) DAYS 1-3




Monday, January 9, 2023

...DAY 1-4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK... ...DAY 1-3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK... ...FRONT ANALYSIS CHARTS... AND NATIONAL FORECAST CHARTS...

 


PARADE OF PACIFIC STORMS CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO CALIFORNIA AND SPREADING SNOW EAST AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE COUNTRY. 

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA, TEXAS LOUISIANA, AND MISSISSIPPI.

FOR THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION UPDATES CLICK ON THIS LINK CLICK (HERE)

FOR THE LATEST WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER UPDATES CLICK (HERE)

RISK AREAS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
MARGINAL Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...Tyler, TX...

DAY 3 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK

DAY 3 SEVERE STORM PROBABILITY
Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...
Tyler, TX...

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK 
MARGINAL RISK FOR THE FOLOWING AREAS:
San Jose, CA...San Francisco, CA...Oakland, CA...Salinas, CA...
Sunnyvale, CA...

DAY 1 TORNADO PROABILITY
FOLLOWING RISK AREA 2%
San Jose, CA...San Francisco, CA...Oakland, CA...Salinas, CA...Sunnyvale, CA...

DAY 1 DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY
FOLLOWING 2% RISK AREAS:
San Jose, CA...San Francisco, CA...Oakland, CA...Salinas, CA...Sunnyvale, CA...

DAY 2 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK
MARGINAL RISK FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:
Los Angeles, CA...San Diego, CA...Long Beach, CA...Santa Ana, CA...Anaheim, CA...


DAY 4 A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
15% SLIGHT RISK FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:
Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Sandy Springs, GA...

DAYS 1-3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK




FRONT ANALYSIS CHARTS (ANIMATED)

NATIONAL FORECAST CHARTS DAYS 1-3