..TROPICAL STORM BERYL 400 PM UPDATE JULY 5, 2024..

 

Intensity models continue to suggest a stronger hurricane making landfall anywhere from Corpus Christy, Texas, northward. There has been a northward pull to Beryl this afternoon, and the track seems to be a bit north of most of the consensus mean models. So those models suggesting a Mexican landfall are the weak tracks. 

The upper-level trough in the Southern Gulf that has been inducing southerly shear will track west over Mexico and allow conditions to become more favorable for Beryl to regain strength as she tracks west-northwest to northwest toward the Texas coast. 

Intensity is difficult to forecast, so I would prepare as if there were a major storm coming your way. It's better to be safe than sorry. Stay tuned to the local media and the National Hurricane Center for the latest on Beryl. 

RTW

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST... ...CENTER OF BERYL EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...

4:00 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 Location: 21.2°N 89.2°W Moving: WNW at 15 mph Min pressure: 989 mb Max sustained: 65 mph

American Model

German Model

Euro Model

Intensity Models

I hate to see this, but Beryl is looking like a tropical cyclone again. Getting ready to move off the northwest coast of Yucatan.

On this track, it places Beryl in very warm Gulf waters for development. She is spinning up rather nicely, and I'm not liking the looks of that. 

Get ready, Texas-tenacious Beryl is coming for an unwanted visit!