Friday, September 14, 2018

FLORENCE A LIFE THREATENING FLOOD THREAT AND TORNADO THREAT 9/14/18 1128 AM EDT

920 
WTNT31 KNHC 141440
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  61
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLORENCE JUST INLAND NEAR CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES AND HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS
CONTINUE...
...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 78.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued north of Duck,
North Carolina, including the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point
Comfort.

The Hurricane Warning has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning
from Duck, North Carolina, south to Bogue Inlet, including the
Albemarle Sound.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Bogue Inlet North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* Bogue Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle Sound

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 78.0 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h).  A slow
westward to west-southwestward motion is expected today through
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move
further inland across extreme southeastern North Carolina and
extreme eastern South Carolina today and Saturday.  Florence will
then move generally northward across the western Carolinas and the
central Appalachian Mountains early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual weakening is forecast later today and tonight.
Significant weakening is expected over the weekend and into early
next week while Florence moves farther inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).  A wind gust to 75 mph (120 km/h) was recently
reported at the National Ocean Service station in Wrightsville
Beach, and a 72 mph (116 km/h) was recently reported at a
Weatherflow site just north of Cape Fear at Federal Point.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC...7-11 ft, with locally higher
amounts in the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to Duck NC...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South
Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals
of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash
flooding and prolonged significant river flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding.

Rainfall totals exceeding 14 inches thus far have been reported at
several locations across southeastern North Carolina.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
today.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



ISAAC UPDATE 9/14/18 1114 AM EDT

803 
WTNT34 KNHC 141431
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Isaac Advisory Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

...BANDS OF RAIN FROM ISAAC CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 67.3W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Isaac
was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 67.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days.  A turn to the west-northwest is possible
early next week if Isaac survives.  On the forecast track, Isaac
will move over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Isaac is forecast to gradually weaken over the next few days, and
could degenerate into a tropical wave at any time.  A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate the
depression.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Isaac is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to
3 inches with isolated maximum totals of up to 5 inches across
southeast Puerto Rico.  Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with
maximum amounts of 3 inches are possible across the remainder of
Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Leeward Islands and the
northern Windward Islands.  Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches are possible across the south-
central portion of the Dominican Republic, southwest Haiti and
Jamaica. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake




FLORENCE CONTINUES TO DRENCH THE CAROLINAS 9/14/18 1038 PM EDT


DANGEROUS FLORENCE HEADING TOWARD THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...






Sorry I am updating all this from my cell phone.  I don't have a laptop today and I'm still dealing with isp problems with WiFi at work which prevents me from updating website from work.  It's beenb a rough week thus far with doctors appointnent and these connection problems.  I'll continue to update from home but with family and all it's not easy.  So I will update here every so often to keep those of you who follow up to date on the tropics.  RTW

Thursday, September 13, 2018

FLORENCE 11 PM UPDATE

FLORENCE ADVISORY ISSUED BY NHC
487 
WTNT31 KNHC 140258
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  59
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...THREAT OF FRESHWATER FLOODING WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 76.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued north of Duck North
Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to Cape Charles Light Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane
Florence was located by NOAA Doppler radar and an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 76.8
West.  Florence is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h).
A turn toward the west-northwest and west at a slow forward speed
is expected through Friday, followed by a slow west-southwestward
motion Friday night and Saturday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Florence is expected to move inland across extreme
southeastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina
Friday and Saturday.  Florence will then recurve across the western
Carolinas and the central Appalachian Mountains early next week.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft, coastal surface
observations, and NOAA Doppler radar indicate that maximum sustained
winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts.  Little change
in strength is expected before Florence moves inland on Friday.
More significant weakening is expected over the weekend and into
early next week while Florence moves farther inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).  A Weatherflow station at Fort Macon, North
Carolina recently reported a sustained wind of 77 mph (124 km/h)
with a gust to 100 mph (161 km/h).

A storm surge of 10 feet above normal levels was reported by the
National Weather Service office in Morehead City, North Carolina,
at the Cherry Branch Ferry Terminal on the Neuse River, courtesy of
the North Carolina Department of Transportation.

The minimum central pressure reported by the aircraft is 956 mb
(28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC...7-11 ft, with locally higher
amounts in the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to Duck NC...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South
Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall will
produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are occuring over portions of the coast
of North Carolina and are expected to spread across portions of
southeastern North Carolina and eastern South Carolina through
Friday.   Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread inland
across the remainder of the warning area through Saturday.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible in eastern and
southeastern North Carolina through Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg 




 


FLORENCE 5PM EDT SEPT 13, 2018 UPDATE


FLORENCE PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY NHC
923 
WTNT21 KNHC 132032
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  58
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062018
2100 UTC THU SEP 13 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N  76.2W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
50 KT.......100NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT.......170NE 150SE 110SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 200SE 180SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N  76.2W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N  76.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 34.1N  77.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.2N  78.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  35NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 100SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.9N  79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 33.8N  79.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 140SE  90SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.8N  82.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 37.9N  82.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 42.7N  76.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N  76.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
------------------------------------------------------------------












 

STILL NO FIX TO MY SITE BBUILDER NOT LOADING! 0300 PM EDT SEPT 13, 2018

Sorry folks I been back and forth with tech support and they are putting the blame on my ISP provider at work.  I will have to check when i get home later to see if it is here at work.  So in the mean time I will continue to update the storm stuff here on the blog.  I apologize for the inconvenience this may cause you.

RTW

FLORENCE UPDATE SEPT 13, 2018 1149 AM EDT

FLORENCE PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY NHC
043 
WTNT31 KNHC 131444
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  57
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...HEAVY RAINBANDS WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS
THE OUTER BANKS AND COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 75.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to Cape Charles Light Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
nearing completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), data from an Air Force Reserve Unit
Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars from
indicate that Florence was located near latitude 33.4 North,
longitude 75.5 West.  Florence is moving toward the northwest near
10 mph (17 km/h).  This general motion, accompanied by a further
decrease in forward speed, is expected to continue through today. A
turn to the west-northwest and west at an even slower forward speed
is expected tonight and Friday, and a slow west-southwestward motion
is forecast Friday night and Saturday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Florence will approach the coasts of North and South
Carolina later today, then move near or over the coast of southern
North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina in the hurricane
warning area tonight and Friday. A slow motion across portions of
eastern South Carolina is forecast Friday night through Saturday
night.

Data from the aircraft and Doppler weather radars indicate that
maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the
center reaches the coast, with weakening expected after the center
moves inland.

Florence is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). NOAA Buoy 41025,
located near Diamond Shoals, North Carolina, recently reported a
sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft
is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina...20 to
30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall will produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...6 to 12 inches, isolated 24 inches.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area this evening or early Friday.  Tropical
storm conditions are already moving onshore within the warning
area.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
through Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
--------------------------------------------------------------------







 

HERE WE GO AGAIN SITE BUILDER NOT LOADING!

Sorry folks I was trying to load my site builder and it say it failed to load once again.  I checked what caused that problem the last time which was a conflict with the new SSL certificate BS they added to my site and third party website. That is not the problem this time so I had to send tech support an email hope to have it resolved soon.  I will keep you all updated as soon as I hear from them.

My apologies for the inconvenience this may cause!

Ralph's Tropical Weather

FLORENCE STRUGGLING WITH DRY AIR AND WIND SHEAR SEPT 12, 2018...1129 PM EDT


FLORENCE PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY NHC
993 
WTNT31 KNHC 130248
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  55
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

...FLORENCE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL STILL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 73.7W
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM ESE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 73.7 West. Florence is
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, is
expected to continue through Thursday.  A turn to the west-northwest
and west at an even slower forward speed is expected Thursday
night and Friday, and a slow west-southwestward motion is forecast
Friday night and Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Florence will approach the coasts of North and South Carolina on
Thursday, then move near or over the coast of southern North
Carolina and eastern South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on
Thursday night and Friday.  A slow motion over eastern South
Carolina is forecast Friday night and Saturday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph
(175 km/h) with higher gusts.  Florence is now a category 2
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind scale.  Little
change in strength is expected before the center reaches the coast,
with weakening expected after the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Coastal North Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This
rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina...5 to 10
inches, isolated 20 inches.
Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states...3 to 6
inches, isolated 12 inches.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area late Thursday or Friday.  Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
through Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
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