...STORM INVESTIGATION 99L DEC 07, 2022...

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for 
subtropical development over the central Atlantic.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A large non-tropical area of low pressure located over the central 
subtropical Atlantic about 900 miles northeast of the northern 
Leeward Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and 
thunderstorms. This activity has become somewhat better organized 
this morning, though frontal features remain attached to the low.  
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development 
and a subtropical or tropical storm could form within the next day 
or so.  By Friday, the low will move northeastward over cooler 
waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting the chance 
for additional subtropical or tropical development of the system.  
Additional information on this low, including warnings, can be found 
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  The 
next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued 
by 9 PM EST Wednesday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Papin

 

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK...

 

STORM PREDICITION CENTER

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAYS 1

(CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS) AND (MARGINAL RISK)

DAY 1 HAIL OUTLOOK LESS THAN 5% ALL AREAS

DAY 1 TORNADO OUTLOOK

(2% RISK)

DAY 1 DAMAGING WIND OUTLOOK 

(5% RISK)

DAY 2 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK

(CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS)

SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK DAY 3

(CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS)

DAY 7 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK 

(SLIGHT RISK 15%)

THUNDERSTORM OUTOOK ANIMATION

WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

(MARGINAL AND A SLIGHT RISK)

NATIONAL FORECAST CHARTS ANIMATED

...INVEST 99L FORECAST TO BECOME A SUB-TROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...

 

INVEST 99L WILL BE MOVING INTO A COOLER WATERS BUT MOST OF THE MODELS STILL INSIST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A SUB-TROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST .

EURO AND GFS ARE HINTING THAT 99L COULD BECOME A HURRICANE.  THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS NOT A THREAT TO THE U.S..

RTW

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
845 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for 
subtropical development this week over the central Atlantic.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A large area of low pressure located over the central subtropical 
Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands 
continues to produce a broad area of showers and thunderstorms.  
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development 
and a subtropical or tropical storm could form in the next couple of 
days. By Thursday night or Friday, the low will move northeastward 
over cooler waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting 
subtropical or tropical development of the system.  Additional 
information on this low, including warnings, can be found in High 
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  The next 
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 
PM EST tonight, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK AND NATIONAL FORECAST ANIMATION...

 

EXCESSIVE RAINFLL OUTLOOK DAYS 1-3 ANIMATION AND NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST MAP.

RTW

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK DAYS 1-3

NATIOANL FORECAST MAP

...MONITORING A DISTURBANCE IN THE ATLANTIC THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE COMING DAYS...

 

A DISTURBANCE IN THE ATLANTIC THAT MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS AND LIGHTNING.  

THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MEANDERS IN THIS AREA DURING A DAY OR SO, BEFORE IT MAKES A COMPLETE COUNTER CLOCKWISE LOOP, AND BEGINS A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST.  

BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO MODEL ARE FORECASTING A LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM AS IT TRACKIS NORTHEAST IN THE COMING DAYS.  HIGH SEAS AND LARGE SWELLS WILL BE A PROBLEM FOR THE SHIPPING LANES. 

THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AND WILL NOT BE A THREAT TO THE U.S. EAST COAST, BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, OR THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.  HOWEVER, THE AZORES ISLANDS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY, S IT WILL HAVE A LARGE WIND FIELD RADIUS..

RTW

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
900 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential 
for subtropical development this week over the central Atlantic.

1. A large area of low pressure located over the central subtropical 
Atlantic about 750 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands 
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some 
subtropical characteristics while it drifts northeastward during the 
next few days.  By Thursday night or Friday, however, the low is 
expected to move over cooler waters, ending its chances of becoming 
a subtropical cyclone.  Additional information on this system, 
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued 
by the National Weather Service.  The next Special Tropical Weather 
Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EST today or 
earlier.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Cangialosi/Pasch

A LOOK AT WHAT EURO SUGGEST IT WILL LOOK LIKE BY THIS SATURDAY.

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REMAINS QUIET FOR NOW...

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.MARGINAL RISK FOR FOR THUNDERSTORMS DAY 1-2

RTW

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK 

MARGINAL RISK

DAY 2 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK 

MARGINAL RISK

DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK 

MARGINAL/ SLIGHT RISK

 

...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...

ACCORDING TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER THE NEXT THREE DAYS SHOULD BE SEVERE STORM FREE.  ALTHOUGH DAY 1-2 DOES HAVE A CHANCE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS MAGINAL RISK AREAS IS EXPECTED, HOWEVER, WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS SOME CELLS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH OR HIGHER, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING COULD OCCUR.

WINTER WEATHER MOVES EAST FROM THE PACIFIC AND A COMBINATION OF MIX PRECITIATION  ICE, SLEET TURNING TO SNOW.  SEE BELOW MAPS FOR THE LATEST AND STAY TUNED TO STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER  FOR UPDATES.

RTW

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK

DAY 2

Surface Fronts and Sea-Level Pressures

FRIDAY-MONDAY MAP ANIMATION

National Forecast Chart

FRIDAY-MONDAY MAP ANIMATION

GEFS MODEL ENSEMBLE 00Z ANIMATION