THERE IS NO SEVERE STORMS FORECAST IN THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE. STORM PREDICITION CENTER FOR DAILY UPDATES. THERE ARE SOME AREAS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE ARE SOME AREAS WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FORECAST MAPS FROM WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BELOW.
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SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
DAY1
DAY 5 A (SLIGHT RISK)
ANIMATED MAPS
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
WPC NATIONAL FORECAST MAP
NATIONAL RADAR MAP
GEFS ENSEMBLE MODEL
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STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUES (PDS) TORNADO WATCH #572
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Mesoscale Discussion 1978 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022 Areas affected...northern LA...extreme southeast Arkansas and into central MS Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 291720Z - 291945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A PDS tornado watch will be needed by 19z/1pm CT for portions of northern Louisiana, extreme southeast Arkansas and into central Mississippi. Tornadoes, a couple potentially long-track and strong, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible into the evening hours. DISCUSSION...Rich Gulf boundary-layer moisture continues to rapidly return northward across the Lower MS Valley vicinity. Surface dewpoints near 65 F have developed as far north as south-central MS and northern LA late this morning. Meanwhile, the marine warm front, roughly delineating 70 F dewpoints, extends west-to east from southeast TX through central LA into southern MS. Moisture should continue to rapidly increase across northern LA into far southeast AR and MS through the afternoon. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will continue to overspread the region, aiding in MLCAPE increasing to 1000-2000 J/kg by mid-afternoon. Breaks in cloud cover across northeast LA into central MS will further aid in destabilization as greater heating occurs within these cloud breaks. Strong vertical shear, with effective shear magnitudes greater than 45 kt is already in place across the region. Regional VWPs and profilers already show enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs with 0-1 km SRH values greater than 250 m2/s. Large-scale ascent will remain modest across the region, resulting in a large warm sector supporting discrete supercells. One or more bands of supercells will be possible within low-level confluence zones. A particular dangerous situation is expected to develop across northeast LA into central MS through this evening as multiple supercells track across the area. Tornadoes, a couple strong and long-track, will be possible, in addition to large hail (scattered 2+ inch) and damaging gusts. ..Leitman/Hart.. 11/29/2022
ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 290533
ALZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-291800-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022
...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley later today and tonight...
* LOCATIONS...
Mississippi
Northeast Louisiana
Southeast Arkansas
Far Western Alabama
Far Southwest Tennessee
* HAZARDS...
Several tornadoes, a few intense
Scattered large hail, some baseball size
Isolated damaging winds
* SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, very large
hail, and a few severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon
into the overnight period across parts of the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southeast. A few strong
tornadoes will be possible.
Preparedness actions...
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
&&
..Squitieri.. 11/29/2022
Severe Weather Outlook
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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THE TROPICS REMAIN QUIET AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE END OF THE 2022 HURRICANE SEASON.
THE EURO MODEL DOES NOT SEE MUCH TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, BUT THE GFS SHOWS A BIT OF ACTIVITY OVER THE BAHAMAS ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. NONE OF THAT ACTIVITY WOULD AFFECT THE U.S. MAINLAND.
DECEMBER IS NOT IMMUNE FROM TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, SO ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE AFTER THE END OF THE SEASON. USUALLY THOSE STORMS THAT FORM IN DECEMBER ARE OUT AT SEA STORMS AND ARE USUALLY WEAKER SYSTEMS, SO NO WORRIES ENJOY THE HOLIDAYS.
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000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251738
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM PST Fri Nov 25 2022
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Beven
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NO TORNADO RISK FORECAST ONLY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2022
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
today through tonight.
...Synopsis...
Within a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific,
models indicate that there will be further amplification within the
flow across western North America through this period. This likely
will include building mid-level ridging across and inland of the
U.S./British Columbia Pacific coast, and digging mid-level troughing
within split downstream branches near and east of the Rockies. It
still appears that the more amplified of these perturbations will
evolve in the southern branch, and include a developing mid-level
low near the Colorado into New Mexico Rockies later today through
tonight.
Farther downstream, as a deep mid-level low continues to form while
redeveloping across and southeast of the Canadian Maritimes, it
appears that the persistent confluent mid-level regime across the
eastern U.S. may become more focused across and just east of the
Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath this regime, models indicate that cold
surface ridging will be maintained and reinforced across the
Atlantic Seaboard. As some erosion of this ridging commences across
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico into portions of the southern Great
Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, it appears that more prominent
surface ridging, developing across the Intermountain West and
Rockies, will begin to build into the Great Plains. And, surface
cyclogenesis will remain suppressed within weak surface troughing to
the lee of the southern Rockies.
...Southern Great Plains vicinity...
On the southwestern periphery of the eastern surface ridging, modest
low-level moisture return is already underway across and
north-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley. A gradual
moistening likely will continue within a narrow plume on the eastern
periphery of a low-level jet (roughly 30+ kt around 850 mb),
north-northeastward toward the Ozark Plateau through daybreak
Thursday. However, this is occurring above an initially cold/stable
surface-based layer. While there probably will be some modification
of this air mass today through tonight, low cloud cover and
precipitation will contribute to the maintenance of a substantive
low-level/near-surface inversion layer across most areas north of
the middle Texas coastal plain. Weak boundary-layer destabilization
appears possible overnight across the coastal plain, but this seems
likely to remain capped beneath warming layers aloft.
North of a College Station/Temple line into areas near/northwest of
the Ark-La-Tex, strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent is
expected to support increasing thunderstorm development late this
evening into the overnight hours. Modest to weak elevated
instability and shear (within the relevant potential convective
layer) likely will minimize the risk for severe weather.
..Kerr/Thornton.. 11/23/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1707Z (12:07PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIMEDAY 2 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR TORNADO SEE NEXT PROBABILITY GRAHPHICS
SPC AC 230508 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2022 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening across the Middle and Upper Texas Coast vicinity into southwest Louisiana. Locally damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible. ...Middle and Upper TX Coast/Southeast TX/Southwest LA... A positive-tilt large-scale upper trough will extend from the northern Plains to the southern Rockies early Thursday. Forecast guidance continues to vary with the eastward evolution of the southern branch of the trough over the southern Plains. Guidance has generally trended toward a cut-off upper low developing over the southern High Plains, and only shifting slightly eastward by Friday morning, though the deterministic GFS in particular is now maintaining an open wave and somewhat more progressive trough compared to earlier runs. Nevertheless, ensemble guidance still is indicating preference toward a cut-off upper low developing, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper level flow over southern/eastern TX and the lower MS Valley vicinity. At the surface, a trough will extend from western OK into central TX, while a cold front shifts southeast across TX/OK/AR through the period. Uncertainty still remains regarding surface cyclogenesis across TX into the central Gulf coast. The expectation is that only modest surface cyclogenesis will occur, limiting rich boundary-layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to the Middle/Upper TX Coasts/southeast TX and coastal Louisiana. While the surface cold front shifts southeast through the period, a warm front is expected to remain just offshore from the LA coast. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing Thursday morning, limiting destabilization despite mid/upper 60s F dewpoints. A few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon/evening ahead of the cold front as forcing for ascent increases. Low-level winds will remain modest, generally less than 25 kt through around 3km. However, vertically veering wind profiles, with moderate to strong mid/upper level flow will support 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes. This will aid in updraft organization, though longevity/intensity of organized cells may be tempered by poor thermodynamics. As a result, will maintain a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk primarily for a few damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado. ..Leitman.. 11/23/2022 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1715Z (12:15PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 2 TORNADO PROBABILITY
DAY 2 DAMAGING WIND OUTLOOKTHERE IS NO CHANCE FOR DAMAGING HAIL EXPECTED!WPC DAY 1-3 NATIONAL FORECAST CHARTS ANIMATIONDAY 1-3 SNOWFALL PROBABILITY GREATER THAN 4 INCHES
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094 ABNT20 KNHC 231112 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Brown
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