000
WTPZ33 KNHC 221444
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018
...VICENTE LOOKING LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...
...STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 100.8W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Vicente.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 100.8 West. Vicente is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a turn
to the northwest is expected today followed by a turn to the
north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Vicente is expected to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico
on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Vicente is expected to become a tropical
depression by tonight or Tuesday. The cyclone's circulation is
expected to dissipate near the southwestern coast of Mexico by
Wednesday.
Vicente is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants are expected to produce 3 to 6
inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches through Wednesday
over portions of Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico.
This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides within mountainous terrain.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Latto
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 221446
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018
...WILLA BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 107.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 107.2 West. Willa is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue today. Willa is forecast to accelerate toward
the north-northeast and move over or very near the Islas Marias
early Tuesday and make landfall along the southwestern coast of
mainland Mexico in the hurricane warning area Tuesday afternoon or
evening.
Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Willa is a
category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some strengthening is still possible today. Slight weakening is
forecast to begin on Tuesday, but Willa is expected to be an
extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of
Mexico.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday
night, especially near and to the south of where the center of Willa
makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.
Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to
4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua,
and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area beginning Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions expected by Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight
and Tuesday.
SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.
$$
Forecaster Brown
