MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST JULY 9, 2017 0652 PM

Tonight Jul 9, 2017

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 93°F. East wind to 7 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Monday Jul 10

Partly cloudy with scattered showers during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F-104°F. East southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 93°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Tuesday Jul 11

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F-104°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Jul 12

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 97°F. East northeast wind 7 to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 93°F. East northeast wind to 12 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Jul 13

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 99°F-104°F. Northeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the Night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 90°F. East wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday Jul 14

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 97°-102°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East southeast wind to 8 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday Jul 15

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 97°F-102°F. Southeast wind to 8 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 90°F. East southeast wind to 6 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI FLORIDA 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 9, 2017 0609 PM

The tropics remain quiet will continue to monitor the Atlantic for development next week.  The wave associated the remnants of tropical depression four that continues to interact with a mid to upper level low near 27° North Longitude and 57° West latitude will continue to track west-northwest toward the Bahamas and Southern Florida this week.  If these showers and storms continue they will spread across the Bahamas Monday thru Wednesday and move across Florida and Thursday maybe Friday.  Showers and thunderstorms and squally conditions can be expected as this system moves across the area.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 8, 2017 0859 PM EDT

Tropical wave associated with the remnants of TD Four that have been flaring up thunderstorms to the north of the waves access.  This is most likely due to the interaction with a mid to upper level low near 30° North Longitude and 57° West Latitude.  The thunderstorm associated with this wave will pass north of the northern Leeward Islands Sunday evening and there could be some squally conditions moving through the northern Islands if the showers and storms expand southward.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 8, 2017 0259 PM EDT

Monitoring the coast of Africa for possible development next week.  The remnants of TD FOUR remain disorganized as it tracks west to a west-northwest.  This system could bring showers and storms along with squally conditions to the Northern Leeward Islands this evening as the wave passes to the north.  The east Bahamas will see their share of showers, storms in squalls on Monday.  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 

UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST

Today Jul 8, 2017

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F-104°F. Southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 79°F. East southeast wind to 7 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday Jul 9

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F-104°. East southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday Jul 10

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday Jul 11

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 95°F. East wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 90°F. East wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Jul 12

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 95°F. East northeast wind 8 to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East northeast wind to 12 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Jul 13

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 93°F. East wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 90°F. East wind to 12 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Friday Jul 14

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 93°F. East northeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 8, 2017 0100 PM EDT

Other than the remnant low of tropical depression four the tropics remain quiet for now.  I will continue to monitor whats left of Four as the remnants will pass over the Southern half of Florida next week.  I will also be monitoring off the African coast for development next week.  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

DEPRESSION DEGENERATES TO AN OPEN WAVE LAST POST ON THIS SYSTEM

JULY 7, 2017 0500 PM EDT

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DEGENERATES INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE ONCE AGAIN.  DRY AIR AND FAST FORWARD MOTION DID THIS SYSTEM IN.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST POST ON THIS WEATHER SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 7, 2017 1215 PM EDT

Tropical Wave # 1 west of the African Coast has a lot of dry air and Sahara dust intruding into the surrounding of this wave.  This minimizes the development of thunderstorms along the northern axis of the wave.  However there seems to be some thunderstorms along the southern axis of the wave at present.

Tropical Wave # 2 over the East Caribbean is also encountering dry air, Sahara dust and wind shear.  The likelihood of development is not likely at this. time

Tropical Wave# 3 is is encountering wind shear and this wave is moving over the Yucatan.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next couple of days.  I will be monitoring to coast of Africa next week for another possible strong wave.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 JULY 7, 2017 1051 AM EDT

Tropical Depression 4 is still moving too fast and is presently still moving through dry air.  Neither of these conditions are favorable for this system to continue to develop.  More than likely this system will have to be downgraded to an open wave as it continues to track toward the west-northwest.

I am working on the Tropical Weather Outlook maps and should have it posted here within an hour or so.  Sorry for the inconvenience its just me doing all this.
 RTW

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 UPDATE JULY 6 2017 0500 PM EDT

As of 0500 PM EDT Tropical Depression Four remains disorganized as it tracks through dry air and speeds across the Atlantic near 23 mph forward speed.  This speed for tropical cyclone does not help in the development process and the storm produces its own wind shear of over the cloud structure.

The depression is tracking almost due west, however, according to 18z model XTRP the direction of travel is west of due north while the Invest previous and present track is directly westward.

Not much change is expected unless it slows down but that does not look likely, as a 1029 mb High pressure system near 35° N. Long. and 35° W. Lat. is helping to steer this system quickly across the Central Atlantic.

Remember what I mentioned yesterday a weak system always tends to track west to west-northwest. A tropical cyclones path are governed by trough and low pressure weakening the High pressures ridge.  As the High pressure ridge is weaken it opens a passage way for a well organized tropical cyclone to move into.  However, in the case of an Andrew storm the High pressure got stronger and the ridge built westward over the cyclone strengthening it and turning it westward.  There was no strong low pressure system or trough to prevent that westward track.  So this depression could remain on the westward or west-northwest track until it weakens further and dissipates.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 6, 2017 0416 PM EDT

Other than weak tropical depression four the tropical Atlantic remains quiet for now.  Sahara dust and dry air over off the African coast affecting wave number one and wave number three is also being affected by dry and African dust that has made its way toward the Lesser Antilles.  This dry air limits the development of thunderstorms along these waves axis.  Some wind shear is also present over the west Caribbean that is also affecting tropical wave number 4.  Elsewhere all remains quiet.

I will have an update on TD Four as soon as the data is released.

RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 6, 2017 1100 AM EDT

RTW:  Ralph's Tropical Weather
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR LOOKING ILL DEFINE THIS MORNING.  MOST OF THE CONVECTION (THUNDERSTORMS) HAVE DIMINISHED.  

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING THROUGH DRY AIR AND IS PRESENTLY MOVING TO FAST 21 MPH FORWARD SPEED.  

THIS PRODUCES SHEAR OVER THE THUNDERSTORMS AND THEY BEGIN TO LOSE THEIR INTENSITY.  ON VISIBLE SATELLITE YOU CAN SEE FEATHERING OF THE CLOUD SURROUNDING THE DEPRESSION.  THAT IS WIND SHEAR OVER THE STORM.

IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IT MAY HAVE TO BE DOWNGRADED TO AN OPEN WAVE AGAIN...RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 

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