Thursday, September 14, 2017
STORM INVESTIGATION 97L
SORRY OUT FROM WORK TODAY LOWER BACK PAIN HERE IS JOSE UPDATE
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 ...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM JOSE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 67.3W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 67.3 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a turn to the northwest on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast to begin on Friday, and Jose will likely become a hurricane again by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the Southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Wednesday, September 13, 2017
...JOSE A BIT STRONGER AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD...1044 PM EDT SEPT 13, 2017
000 WTNT32 KNHC 140240 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2017 ...JOSE NOW MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AND A BIT STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 66.0W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 66.0 West. Jose is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the west- northwest and then toward the northwest is expected during the next 48 hours, along with an increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Jose could become a tropical storm in the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the Southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
JOSE UPDATE SEPT 13, 2017
000 WTNT32 KNHC 131439 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2017 ...JOSE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 65.6W ABOUT 510 MI...815 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 65.6 West. Jose is moving toward the southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), but it is expected to make a slow clockwise loop during the next couple of days, moving west-northwestward by late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
FLORIDA CAN RELAX JOSE IS NOT A THREAT FOR THE STATE...RTW
Tuesday, September 12, 2017
HURRICANE JOSE UPDATE 0500 PM EDT 9/12/17
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 ...JOSE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 67.4W ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 67.4 West. Jose is moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn to the southeast and south at a slow forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Jose will remain well to the east-northeast of the Bahamas through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
FINALLY HAD A CHANCE TO UPDATE MY WEBSITE 0353 PM EDT SEPT 12, 2017
JOSE UPDATE FROM WORK NO ELECTRICTY AT HOME FOR UPDATES 1258 PM EDT 9/12/2017
This is due to the jet stream being very active to help push cold fronts across the U.S. and turn these storms out to sea like previous years.
Could Jose come toward the east coast? Anything is possible if high pressure decides to strengthen over Jose and steers it back toward the west.
The good new is that, Jose has been meandering in the same general area and this has caused cooling of the sea surface temps. This has helped to weaken the cyclone to a Cat 1 from a Cat 4. However, I been seeing on satellite very cold cloud tops near the center of circulation which is an indication that Jose is holding strong as a Cat 1. I will keep you posted on the progress of Jose... RTW
...JOSE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
000 WTNT32 KNHC 121446 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 ...JOSE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 68.3W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 68.3 West. Jose is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a turn to the southeast and south at a slow forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Jose will remain well to the east-northeast of the Bahamas through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is forecast, and Jose could become a tropical storm by tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Monday, September 11, 2017
NO BLOG OR WEBSITE UPDATES DUE TO HURRICANE POWER OUTAGE
RTW
NOW THAT IRMA IS ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA WE WATCH JOSE
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2017 ...JOSE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 68.1W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 68.1 West. Jose is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue overnight, followed by a reduction in forward speed and a turn toward the north on Monday. Jose is then forecast to move slowly toward the east and southeast on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jose will affect portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to produce high surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Birchard
Sunday, September 10, 2017
IRMA'S WIND FIELD EXPANDS NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
000 WTNT31 KNHC 110243 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 ...IRMA PRODUCING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 81.9W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF SARASOTA FLORIDA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SE OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning from Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach, as well as for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet * North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the Ochlockonee River * Florida Keys * Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of Jupiter Inlet to Fernandina Beach * North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass * Lake Okeechobee A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach * Florida Keys * Florida Bay * West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bimini and Grand Bahama A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located by NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 81.9 West. Irma is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and then northwest at a faster forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Irma will continue to move over the western Florida peninsula through Monday morning and then into the southeastern United States late Monday and Tuesday. Doppler radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Irma is expected to become a tropical storm over far northern Florida or southern Georgia on Monday. Irma has a very large wind field. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center, and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Sable to Captiva...4 to 6 ft Captiva to Anna Maria Island...3 to 5 ft North Miami Beach to Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys...3 to 5 ft Anna Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...3 to 5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are continuing across portions of the central Florida peninsula. Winds affecting the upper floors of high-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near ground level. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys through Monday morning. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning areas through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area in the Northwestern Bahamas overnight. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Wednesday: Western Bahamas...Additional 2 to 4 inches. The Florida Keys...Additional 1 inch possible with storm total amounts from 15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. Western Florida peninsula...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Eastern Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 12 inches, isolated 16 inches. The rest of Georgia, the eastern Florida Panhandle, southern and western South Carolina, and western North Carolina...3 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Southern Tennessee, northern Mississippi and much of Alabama...2 to 5 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across northeast Florida and southeast portions of Georgia and South Carolina through Monday night. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
IRMA UPDATE ISSUED 0500 PM EDT SEPT 10, 2017
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 ...IRMA NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGES EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE EYE PASSAGE ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 81.8W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF NAPLES FLORIDA ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet * North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the Ochlockonee River * Florida Keys * Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian Pass * Florida Keys * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bimini and Grand Bahama A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 81.8 West. Irma is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a north-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected by tonight, with that motion continuing through Monday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should move near or over the west coast of the Florida Peninsula through Monday morning. Irma should then move inland over northern Florida and southwestern Georgia Monday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Although weakening is forecast, Irma is expected to remain a hurricane at least through Monday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). A mesonet site at Naples Municipal Airport recently reported a sustained wind of 88 mph (142 km/h) with a gust to 135 mph (217 km/h) while in the northern eyewall of Irma. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 938 mb (27.70 inches). A pressure of 937 mb (27.67 inches) was measured by a storm spotter on Marco Island while in Irma's eye. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Sable to Captiva...10 to 15 ft Captiva to Ana Maria Island...6 to 10 ft Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys... 5 to 10 ft Anna Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay... 5 to 8 ft North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay... 3 to 5 ft South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...3 to 5 ft North of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are continuing across portions of the southern Florida peninsula. Winds affecting the upper floors of high-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near ground level. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning areas through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area in the Northwestern Bahamas this evening. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Wednesday: Western Bahamas...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. The Florida Keys...Additional 3 to 6 inches with storm total amounts from 15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. Western Florida peninsula...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Eastern Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 12 inches, isolated 16 inches. The rest of Georgia, the eastern Florida Panhandle, southern and western South Carolina, and western North Carolina...3 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Southern Tennessee, northern Mississippi and much of Alabama...2 to 5 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. TORNADOES: Tornadoes remain possible through tonight, mainly across central and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula and extreme southeast Georgia. THE EYE: Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane passes over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the eye moves away. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
SORRY FOR LAPSE IN UPDATES BUT I AM IN THE MIDDLE OF HURRICANE IRMA CONDITIONS.
...IRMA HEADED FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST... ...WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 ...IRMA HEADED FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST... ...WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 81.5W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSE OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet * North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the Ochlockonee River * Florida Keys * Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian Pass * Florida Keys * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay * Cuban provinces of Matanzas and La Habana A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bimini and Grand Bahama A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 81.5 West. Irma is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h, and a north-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected later today, with that motion continuing through Monday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should move over the Lower Florida Keys shortly, and then move near or over the west coast of the Florida Peninsula later today through tonight. Irma should then move inland over northern Florida and southwestern Georgia Monday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While weakening is forecast, Irma is expected to remain a powerful hurricane while it moves near or along the west coast of Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). A 120 mph (193 km/h) gust was recently reported at the National Key Deer Refuge in Big Pine Key. A sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) with a gust of 94 mph (151 km/h) was reported at the Federal Aviation Administration station at Miami International Airport. A pressure of 940 mb (27.75 inches) was measured in the calm of the eye on Upper Sugarloaf Key. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 933 mb (27.55 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Sable to Captiva...10 to 15 ft Captiva to Ana Maria Island...6 to 10 ft Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys... 5 to 10 ft Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay... 5 to 8 ft North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay... 3 to 5 ft South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...2 to 4 ft North of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels along the north coast of Cuba will gradually subside today. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through this morning. Hurricane conditions are continuing across portions of the Florida Keys and southern Florida. Winds affecting the upper floors of high-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near ground level. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning areas through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Northwestern Bahamas today. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Wednesday: Western Cuba...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. Western Bahamas...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. The Florida Keys...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. Western Florida peninsula...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Eastern Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 12 inches, isolated 16 inches. The rest of Georgia, the eastern Florida Panhandle, southern and western South Carolina, and western North Carolina...3 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Eastern Alabama and southern Tennessee...2 to 5 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and, in some areas, mudslides. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through tonight, mainly across southern, central, and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula. THE EYE: Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane passes over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the eye moves away. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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