IRMA EXAMPLE 1
MARIA EXAMPLE 2
IRMA AND MARIA WITHOUT WIND FIELD RADIUS EXAMPLE 3
Sunday, September 24, 2017
CHANGES TO TRACKING MAP FOR BETTER VISUALS
I thought you might like some changes I made to the tracking map and the
forecast track storm symbols which you will see tomorrow when I post. I
was able to make the storm symbols match the color of the category. I
think that will make it easier to see what category the storm will be as
it gets closer to a location of interest. I hope you all like it plus I
made the tropical depression wind field wind a shade darker green
instead of that light mint color green, it makes it easier on the eyes
to see the storm wind fields radius. I also fixed the country outline
to show through wind field as the storm moves over the land area. I
noticed that Florida shows the outline of the state zoom in so I fixed
it so you can see land outline over wind field colors as I zoom out the
map. I played with some of the layers and I like what I see. Hope you
all like some of the changes to the tracking map...RTW
Saturday, September 23, 2017
MARIA 1100 PM EDT 09/23/17 UPDATE
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 ...HURRICANE MARIA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH 115 MPH WINDS... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 72.5W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor the progress of Maria. Tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for a portion of the coast on Sunday. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 72.5 West. Maria is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the core of Maria will be moving well east of the United States southeast coast during the next 2 days. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). NOAA buoy 41047 located north of Maria recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (86 km/h) with a gust of 75 mph (122 km/h). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane was 942 mb (27.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday. Swells also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
Friday, September 22, 2017
MARIA UPDATE 0500 PM EDT 9/22/2017
000 WTNT35 KNHC 222040 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 ...MARIA PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 71.4W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM ESE OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has changed the Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 71.4 West. Maria is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the north is forecast by Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the central Bahamas tonight. STORM SURGE: Water levels in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands will subside through tonight as Maria moves away from those islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Saturday: Turks and Caicos...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches Puerto Rico...additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated maximum storm total amounts 40 inches Mayaguana, southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches Inagua Islands and Crooked Island, Bahamas...2 to 6 inches Rest of eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, portions of the southeastern United States coast, and Bermuda. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
LATEST MAJOR STORM TRACK THAT AFFECTED LAND
The latest tracks of Harvey, Irma and Maria. I will update Maria's end track when the storm finally disspates.
MARIA 11 AM EDT UPDATE 9/22/2017
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 ...MARIA STILL PRODUCING 125-MPH WINDS AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 71.0W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued all warnings for the Dominican Republic. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 71.0 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the north by late Saturday. On the forecast track, Maria's core will move away from the Turks and Caicos Islands today, and pass northeast and east of the Bahamas through Sunday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas and will continue through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas beginning tonight. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Saturday: Turks and Caicos...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches Puerto Rico...additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum storm total amounts 40 inches Eastern Dominican Republic...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated storm total amounts 20 inches Western Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...additional 3 to 6 inches Mayaguana, southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches Inagua Islands and Crooked Island, Bahamas...2 to 6 inches Rest of eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells will reach portions of the United States southeastern coast today and Bermuda tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Thursday, September 21, 2017
MARIA 11 PM UPDATE 9/21/2017...CORRECTION 1115 PM EDT TO TITLE AND ADVISORY
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 ...MARIA IS NOT IN A HURRY AND IS TAKING ITS TIME TO APPROACH THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND DANGEROUS HIGH WAVES CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 70.2W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NNE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 70.2 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) but a motion toward the north-northwest is anticipated for Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, Maria's eye will gradually move away from the northern coast of the Dominican Republic and then move near or just east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during Friday and Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from a reconnaissance aircraft is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions continue across portions of the Dominican Republic, but should begin to subside during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas soon and will continue through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas beginning late Friday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Saturday: Puerto Rico...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated maximum storm total amounts 40 inches Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and Mayaguana in southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches Inagua Islands, Crooked Island, and rest of southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches Northern Haiti...4 to 8 inches Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will reach the remainder of the Bahamas soon and should reach portions of the United States southeastern coast on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
MARIA 05PM EDT UPDATE 9/21/2017
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 69.8W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 69.8 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast early Friday, with that motion continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, Maria's eye will continue to pass offshore of the northern coast of the Dominican Republic this evening, and then move near or just east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas tonight and on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions continue across portions of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are beginning to spread across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, and hurricane conditions are expected tonight or early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas beginning late Friday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Saturday: Puerto Rico...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated maximum storm total amounts 40 inches Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and Mayaguana in southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches Inagua Islands, Crooked Island, and rest of southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches Northern Haiti...4 to 8 inches Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will reach the remainder of the Bahamas tonight and should reach portions of the United States southeastern coast on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
SEA BREEZE STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND STORMS...
SEA BREEZE STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND STORMS BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE.
LATEST MARIA UPDFATE 1100 AM EDT 9/21/2017
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 ...MARIA HEADING TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUES IN PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 69.1W ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM ENE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic west of Andres/Boca Chica. The Hurricane Watch from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano has also been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti * Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Andres/Boca Chica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 69.1 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast early Friday, with that motion continuing through early Saturday. On the forecast track, Maria's eye will continue to pass offshore of the northern coast of the Dominican Republic today, and then move near or just east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas tonight and on Friday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions continue across portions of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today, with hurricane conditions expected tonight or early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas beginning late Friday. Strong gusty winds are still possible today over portions of Puerto Rico, especially in heavier rainbands that are moving over the island. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Saturday: Puerto Rico...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated maximum storm total amounts 35 inches. U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 2 to 4 inches. Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and Mayaguana in southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches. Inagua Islands, Crooked Island, and rest of southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches. Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches. Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will reach the remainder of the Bahamas today and tonight and should reach portions of the United States southeastern coast on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Wednesday, September 20, 2017
MARIA FORECAST ADVISORY 0500 PM EDT 9/20/2017
000 WTNT35 KNHC 202038 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... ...CONDITIONS NOW DETERIORATING OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 67.3W ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM NNW OF AGUADILLA PUERTO RICO ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning for the U.S. Virgin Islands has been discontinued. The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti * Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 67.3 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Thursday night. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will continue to move away from the northwestern coast of Puerto Rico this evening. The center will then pass offshore of the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday and then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas Thursday night and Friday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Maria could regain major hurricane status by Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force aircraft is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are still occurring over portions of Puerto Rico. Tropical storm conditions are spreading across the warning areas in the Dominican Republic, and hurricane conditions should start in the hurricane warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, with hurricane conditions starting Thursday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore wind over western portions of Puerto Rico, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Puerto Rico...20 to 25 inches, isolated 35 inches U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 3 to 5 inches Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches Rainfall on these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These swells will begin affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
WINDFIELD RADIUS IF IT IS STILL THIS SIZE AT 02PM EDT 9/20/17
THIS WIND FIELD IS FROM THE 11 AM EDT ADVISORY SO IF IT REMAINS THIS SIZE A DIAMETER THEN MINUS THE CAT 4-5 WINDS IT WOULD BE LOOKING LIKE THIS.
GIVES YOU AN IDEA OF WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE ISLAND AND MOVING INTO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RTW
GIVES YOU AN IDEA OF WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE ISLAND AND MOVING INTO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RTW
MARIA PRESENT POSITION AS OF 2PM EDT 9/20/17
Here is the past coordinate positions and present location of center of Maria as it entered the Atlantic.
12Z MODEL RUN FOR MARIA, AND THOSE OF YOU WORRIED ABOUT LEE
Maria's trackwell in agreement until the end of the forecast run where it could either turn back toward the U.S. or the northeast. Florida has no worries!
Jose still meandering and model run a bit more complex not in well agreement all over the place but turning the cyclone back toward the U.S. mainland.
As for the remnants of Lee they seems to have a chance for development into a tropical cyclone but this system will not be a threat to land only to the shipping lanes.
Jose still meandering and model run a bit more complex not in well agreement all over the place but turning the cyclone back toward the U.S. mainland.
As for the remnants of Lee they seems to have a chance for development into a tropical cyclone but this system will not be a threat to land only to the shipping lanes.
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