Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW

Saturday, October 13, 2018

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 13, 2018...1255 AM EDT

Hurricane Leslie headed for Portugal and Western Spain.

Elsewhere where tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Sunday...RTW

Friday, October 12, 2018

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 12, 2018...1032 AM EDT

1. Castastophic Michael exiting over the west Atlantic as a strong Post Tropical Cyclone and should remain a force to recon with as it cross the Atlantic.

After all is said and done I think damage accessment will yield that Michael was a lower cat 5 or a tad higher. There are a lot of similarities in damage comparison from what I seen to a weaker version of an Andrew Storm.

Ships should steer away from the path of this potent Gale center once called Michael.

2. Leslie a possible threat to the Canary Islands.

3. Nadine a weakening storm should disipate over the Central Atlantic.

4. As for the system NHC is watching in the South Caribbean I would not be to concern about it. Chance for formation is low and it is forecast to move over Central America not allowing for development.

Else where in the tropics, all remains quiet...RTW

Thursday, October 11, 2018

MICHAEL TROUGH OR TAIL END PRODUCING SHOWERS A STORMS...

Your probably wondering where these showers and storms coming from? Well this is the trough or tail end that extends from Michael's center of circulation. Almost like a upper level system in the winter dragging a squall line across the state. Some of these cells could produce funnel clouds may be a weak isolated tornado. Just a heads up.

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 11, 2018...0927 AM EDT

1. Michael continues causing havoc with gust winds and heavy rainfall as it tracks to the northeast.

Michael still has the potential for toppling trees snapping tree limbs and causing power outages along it's path. Heavy rains to an area affected by Florence is vulnerable and at risk for more flooding.

Michael is forecast to possibly strengthen some over the Atlantic as it speeds away.

2. Leslie still hanging in but is expected to be downgraded by the end of the forecast to a depression.

3. The center of Nadine is exposed with thunderstorms located to the east of center. Nadine is encountering wind shear from the west. Nadine should be a short lived storm no threat to land.

4. NHC is monitoring the Central and South Caribbean for possible development within 5 days. They are giving this area a 50% chance.

If this low does develop it is forecast to track over Central America as high pressure builds west over the Gulf of Mexico.

Elsewhere the tropics remain quiet for now...RTW

A note to my viewers since I have had many issues with getting website up and running I will be closing it down at end of this season. A lack of time, and to much to do for one person and the unreliable internet connection here at work, has made it impossible to keep the website updated on time and current. I will do my best to keep you updated here on the blog. I will keep alerting you all of potential tropical development as I see it during my daily satellite and model review. I won't to thank those who help me keep up the site for so many years.
Ralph

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

MICHAEL UPDATE OCT 10, 2018 0500 PM EDT

000
WTNT34 KNHC 102054
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...EYE OF MICHAEL APPROACHING EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC WINDS CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 85.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM W OF BAINBRIDGE GEORGIA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF ALBANY GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning west of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line has
been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Florida has been
discontinued south of the Suwanee River.

The Storm Surge Watch south of Anclote River has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was
located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 85.1 West. Michael is
moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected this evening or tonight. A motion
toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on
Thursday through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of
Michael will move across southeastern Alabama and southwestern
Georgia through this evening. Michael will then move northeastward
across the southeastern United States through Thursday, and
then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States
on late Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Michael is a dangerous category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Michael should weaken as it
crosses the southeastern United States through Thursday. Michael is
forecast to strengthen Thursday night and Friday when it moves off
the east coast of the United States and becomes a post-tropical
cyclone on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).  A wind gust to 69 mph (111 km/h) was recently reported
at the airport in Tallahassee, Florida.  A sustained wind of 59 mph
(96 km/h) with a gust to 74 mph (118 km/h) was observed at a
University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site just north of St.
George Island, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 932 mb (27.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  Water levels are beginning to recede in some
locations, however, the combination of a dangerous storm surge
and the tide will continue to cause normally dry areas near the
coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following
heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high
tide...

Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...5-10 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base...3-5 ft
Aucilla River FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anclote River FL...2-4 ft
Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to
Duck...2-4 ft

Water levels remain high along the coast of the Florida Panhandle. A
National Ocean Service water level station at Apalachicola recently
reported over 7 feet of inundation above ground level.

WIND:  Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are occurring over
portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and
southwestern Georgia and will continue to spread inland over
south-central Georgia tonight.

With the eye of Michael moving inland, residents are reminded to not
venture out into the relative calm of the eye, as hazardous winds
will increase very quickly as the eye passes!

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within
the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight
through Friday.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions southeastern
Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva
Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic
coast late Thursday night or Friday.

RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening
flash floods.

The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and into Virginia...3 to
6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1 to 3 inches.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible through tonight from
northern Florida into much of Georgia and southern South Carolina.

SURF:  Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the
eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through Thursday
morning.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

DAMAGE VIDEOS LINKS AND PICTURES FROM MICAHAEL RATH OCT 10, 2108

Gulf Coast Storm Center Retweeted

‏ @WFLAJosh

A look at what houses in #Mexico Beach, #Florida look like right now. This is a follow up from the previous clip posted. They are now submerged and were no match for #HurricaneMichael (via Tessa Talarico) #Hurricane #Michael #HurricaneMichael2018
https://twitter.com/i/status/1050098823194963968
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

‏ @StormVisuals

Complete distraction to the northeastern side of this bank. #hurricaneMichael #panamacity

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NeEmergencyNewsWX Retweeted

‏ @FHPTampa

Hundreds of #FHP Troopers en route to the Panhandle from across Florida to help with #HURRICANEMICHAEL recovery efforts...

https://twitter.com/i/status/1050111898098774016

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Owen Anastas Retweeted

‏Verified account @bustedcoverage

Another video of the destruction from Mexico Beach, Florida

https://twitter.com/i/status/1050102541189550080

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blazin3596 and Jonah Heinl liked

‏Verified account @WeatherNation

Here's evidence of storm surge at its worst. Brett Adair, an experienced field meteorologist, came upon a massive storm surge during #HurricaneMichael and abandoned his vehicle in search for higher ground.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1050095206157017088
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

James Spann Retweeted

‏ @_heyychels

Trees are being snatched from the roots in Panama City, FL! All of my friends and family please be safe! #HurricaneMichael

https://twitter.com/i/status/1050090437757870083
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gary Detman‏ @GaryDetmanNews 2h2 hours ago

Here's dramatic video of a home being obliterated as Hurricane Michael makes landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida, as a category 4 with 155 mph winds. @cbs12 http://bit.ly/2PlNRDT

https://twitter.com/i/status/1050097955489947650
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

‏Verified account @DavidOvalle305

Hurricane Michael damage in the old historic district of Panama City

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
‏ @cliftimestweet

Pine trees litter a yard in Port St. Joe on Garrison Avenue on Wednesday afternoon after Hurricane Michael made landfall in the Florida Panhandle. #HurricaneMichael @TB_Times

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
‏ @JimRupe

More #HuricaneMichael damage. @kmbc @NickBenderKMBC @KrisKetzKMBC

https://twitter.com/i/status/1050106388561715200

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

‏Verified account @ABC

Debris flies amidst heavy rains as #HurricaneMichael makes landfall in Panama City, Florida with 155mph winds. https://abcn.ws/2CCfB4A

https://twitter.com/i/status/1050103871941554177

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

‏Verified account @Ginger_Zee

Behind the storm now and seeing the damage. Surreal. #Michael

https://twitter.com/i/status/1050101892167151616

NWS LIVE RADAR OCT 10 2018...1230 PM EDT

FROM NEWS 10 IN MIAMI BRIAN NORCROSS

‏ @bnorcrossWPLG

READY FOR #MICHAEL: In the path of the eye take every precaution possible. Get mattresses off beds and turn an interior hall into a bunker. Take everything you need to stay there-food, chairs, phones, rain-gear. Use the mattresses for cover and to block doors to exterior rooms.

THE EYE OF POTENTIALLY CASTASTROPIC MICHAEL NEARING THE COAST 1208 PM EDT

NOTED ON RADAR THAT TORNADO VORTEX DETECTED WITHIN THE EYE WALL BY RADAR. TAKE COVER THOSE OF YOU THAT CHOOSE TO RISK YOUR LIFE AND STAY BEHIND.

MICHAEL UPDATE OCT 10, 2018...1109 AM EDT

History is unfolding in the Florida Panhandle today as Major Hurricane Michael makes landfall over the Florida Panhandle. I was hearing to a NOAA researcher Stanley Goldenburg this morning, that was flying missions into Michael over night.

He said that Michael is a strong Category 4 borderline Category 5. He mentioned that this is unlike any hurricane ever impacting this coast line. Flight winds using a special small drone recorded 170 mph.

This is a catastrophic event about to unfold and I hope people evacuated and left the coast.

I will post live radar away from the landfall location so we can maintain a good feed in case of wind damage to radar in the path of Michael.