Thursday, December 20, 2018
NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM A WATCH
/O.NEW.KMFL.SV.A.0440.181220T1915Z-181221T0200Z/
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
440 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IN FLORIDA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES
IN SOUTH FLORIDA
BROWARD MAINLAND MONROE MIAMI-DADE
PALM BEACH
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF FLAMINGO, FORT LAUDERDALE, MIAMI,
AND WEST PALM BEACH.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WARNINGS
Severe line tracking east between Lakeland and Port charlotte prompting severe thunderstorm and tornado warning.
FLOOD ADVISORY MONROE COUNTY
/O.NEW.KMFL.CF.S.0005.181221T0000Z-181222T0000Z/
Mainland Monroe-
1135 AM EST Thu Dec 20 2018
...COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY EVENING...
* COASTAL FLOODING...Sensitive and low-lying areas along the
Mainland Monroe coast may experience minor flooding with
inundation levels of 1-2 ft likely.
* TIMING...Main periods of concerns for coastal flooding will be
around high tide late this evening and late tomorrow morning
with at least minor coastal flooding lingering into Friday
evening.
* IMPACTS...Flooding will impact streets/roads adjacent to the
coast, docks, and piers.
FLORIDA SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE
The atmosphere is constately changing. Severe weather Outlook graphics showing Central Florida as 'Enhanced' chance for severe storm development now.
This is more than likely due, because all that rain and storms have been training over this area since yesterday.
This area yesterday was under a 'Slight' chance for severe storm development.
I have notice on this morning satellite that the colder cloud top have warned over night. This may be due to lack of heating from the day.
Humidity levels are now rising as the sun heats the surface and we could see cooling off the clouds again as they tower upward and this means possibility of damaging winds, severe storms and isolated water spouts and tornado...
Stay alert today Central Florida and Southern Florida this evening in case severe weather Increases... RTW
https://www.weather.gov/mfl/
Wednesday, December 19, 2018
LISTEN UP FLORIDA KEYS MESSAGE FROM NWS MIAMI
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Including the cities of Key Largo, Marathon, and Key West
824 PM EST Wed Dec 19 2018
...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE KEYS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...
A strong cold front is expected to blast through the Florida Keys
and adjacent coastal waters late Thursday or Thursday night. This
front is expected to bring multiple weather hazards to the Keys
from Thursday morning through Friday evening, including strong to
severe thunderstorms, strong winds on land with gales likely on
the coastal waters, and possible coastal flooding on the Gulf and
Bayside.
The main weather event is expected to occur from Thursday morning
through Friday night. The potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms ahead of the cold front will be highest from
Thursday into Thursday night. These thunderstorms may organize
into a squall line which could move through the Keys during the
late afternoon or evening hours. The primary hazards with any
thunderstorms will be strong, gusty and shifting winds along with
lightning strikes. Some of the thunderstorms on Thursday or
Thursday night could become severe with damaging winds and large
hail. Isolated waterspouts will also be possible, and there is a
slight risk for tornadoes as well. The Storm Prediction Center
continues to include all of South Florida and the Keys within a
severe thunderstorm risk area for Thursday into Thursday night.
On land, gusty south to southwest winds will increase to 20 to 30
mph on Thursday. Strong sustained west winds around 30 mph with
gusts near 40 mph are expected on Friday, with winds possibly
reaching these speeds beginning Thursday night. This will prompt a
Wind Advisory.
These persistent and strong westerly winds will cause Coastal
Flooding impacts on the Gulf and Bay side communities along the
length of the Florida Keys. The maximum water levels will likely
occur along the shores of Blackwater and Buttonwood Sounds,
around the time of high tide late Friday afternoon. In these
areas total water levels may reach 3 to 4.5 feet above mean sea
level Friday into Friday night. Coastal flood warnings and
advisories may be required.
Mariners should continue to prepare for a high impact weather
event for Thursday through Friday night, and time is running
short. Small Craft Advisories will certainly be needed during this
event beginning Thursday as strong southerly breezes develop.
Winds will become westerly and increase to near gale behind the
front Thursday night, lasting into Friday night. There is an
increasing likelihood that Gale Warnings will be needed for much
or all of the Keys coastal waters. A Gale Watch is now in effect
for all Keys coastal waters. Very large seas are also expected
with this event, peaking on Friday at 10 to 17 feet across the
Straits of Florida and deep waters of the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico, 5 to 8 feet in Hawk Channel inside the reef, and 4 to 8
feet across the Gulf waters inside five fathoms.
Listen to NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio for the latest weather
information, including possible warnings. In addition, please
remember to turn on your radio's severe weather tone activation
feature. Also visit your Florida Keys National Weather Service on
the web at www.weather.gov/keywest.
FLORIDA SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE
Storm Prediction Center has upgraded a portion of Florida "Enhanced" chance for severe weather along the east coast (see map). The other portion of Florida from Central Florida including south to the Florida straits is still under a "slight" chance.
Looks like the first batch of rain and storms could arrive over night and and the second half Thursday. Stay alert!
THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND SEVERE STORMS OVER FLORIDA THURSDAY
There is still a chance for the possibility of strong to severe storms with damaging winds, heavy rains and isolated tornadoes on Thursday evening.
A trough moving across the Gulf and a bit of Caribbean moisture is helping to energize an area of showers and storms over the southeast Gulf. This trough will sweep this disturbance across Florida with the potential for heavy rains, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
This will more than likely occur late Thursday and over night so if the severe weather materializes you need to have your NOAA weather radio set to alert or have your cell phone near by so alerts will be heared when issued via cell phone network emergency alert system...RTW
Tuesday, December 18, 2018
STRONG TROUGH COULD PRODUCE SEVERE STORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
Strong trough will be dipping south across the southeast by Thursday and it is forecast to drag a pre-front squall line across Central and Southern Florida.
This system could produce enough upper level lift for the formation of mesocyclone type thunderstorms, and they can be severe in nature.
With these type of storms you can't rule out isolated water spouts and tornado as the water spouts move onshore within the squall line by Thursday.
I will continue to monitor this system in the coming days...RTW
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