CRISTOBAL NOT LOOKING AS WELL ORGANIZED NOW THAT THE CENTER IS OVER LAND. SHOULD REGAIN STRENGTH AS CRISTOBAL MOVES AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. HEAVY RAINS LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
RTW
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PUBLIC ADVISORY
000
WTNT33 KNHC 032038
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020
...CRISTOBAL WEAKENING VERY SLOWLY WHILE MOVING OVER LAND...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONTINUES...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 91.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 91.8 West. Cristobal is
moving toward the southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a turn toward
the east is expected by tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast
and north is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast
track, the center will move over the land mass of eastern Mexico
through Thursday. The center is forecast to move back over the
southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday, and over the central Gulf of
Mexico on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening will occur while the cyclone moves over land, and
Cristobal will likely become a tropical depression by Thursday
evening. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin on Friday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following
rain accumulations through Friday night:
Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco,
and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25
inches.
Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches.
Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm
total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
