POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE #3 A BIT STRONGER...LONG MOISTURE TAIL WILL BRING IN HEAVY RAINS THIS EVENING...

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

...DISTURBANCE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS BEGINNING TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... 

1:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 18
Location: 27.3°N 91.1°W
Moving: NNE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

 

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Ralph's Tropical Weather

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE #3 10AM CDT UPDATE

 

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... 

 10:00 AM CDT Fri Jun 18
Location: 26.5°N 91.1°W
Moving: NNE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

 

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE #3 UPDATE

 

I JUST NOTICED THAT THE FIRST MAP WITH STORM TRACK IS NOT SHOWING OVER LAND.  I JUST FIXED IT SO NEXT UPDATE IT WILL SHOW CORRECTLY.  REMEMBER YOU CAN ALWAYS VIEW NHC MAPS BY VISITING THERE WEBSITE.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE #3 COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL.  THIS SYSTEM IS A LOPSIDED STORM SYSTEM WITH ALL THE HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE CENTER IS NOT UNDER THE CLUSTER OF STORMS AND THERE IS DRY AIR ON THE WEST QUADRANT OF THIS STORM.  REGARDLESS OF THIS, P.T.C. #3 IS A RAIN MAKER AND FLASH FLOODING IS THE MAIN CONCERN ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...

7:00 AM CDT Fri Jun 18
Location: 26.0°N 91.5°W
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

 

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National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE #3...JUNE 17, 2021 04:00PM CDT

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... 

4:00 PM CDT Thu Jun 17
Location: 22.9°N 92.4°W
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 30 mph

For NHC graphics and this evenings update click on their link: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 

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Ralph's Tropical Weather

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY MAY BE INITIATED AT 4:00PM CDT PER NHC

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico have become a little 
better organized today.  This system is expected to move generally 
northward, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to 
form over the west-central Gulf of Mexico tonight or early Friday.  
A tropical storm warning will likely be required for a portion of 
the northern Gulf Coast later this afternoon, and Potential Tropical 
Cyclone advisories will likely be initiated on this system at 4 PM 
CDT (2100 UTC).  An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft 
is en route to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. 

Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and 
southern Mexico during the next couple of days.  Heavy rains will 
also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday.  
Please consult products from your local meteorological service for 
more information. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

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Ralph's Tropical Weather

GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMEBER ANIMATION AND MODEL GUIDANCE LATEST AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUN

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Ralph's Tropical Weather

THIS IS WHY THESE MODEL RUN ARE NOT SOMETHING YOU WANT TO FOCUS ON.  THESE MODEL ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE SINCE WE HAVE A WEAK AND DISORGANIZED SYSTEM IN THE GULF.  UNTIL WE GET SOME AIR FORCE RECON DATA FROM THIS SYSTEM THE MODELS WILL REMAIN CONFUSED.  HERE ARE THE GFS 00Z AND LATEST 06Z  GFS MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBER AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE LATEST AND PREVIOUS.

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE 09:00AM EDT

 

INVEST 92L HAS FINALLY BEGUN ITS SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK.  THIS IS A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH MOST OF THE STORMS ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  THE CENTER IS VOID OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BUT THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A SUB-TROPICAL STORM OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS EVENING OR ON FRIDAY.  

THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS IN THE AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING.

FLORIDA COULD STILL SEE SOME MORE RAINS AS SOME OF THESE STORMS MAKE THEIR WAY EAST FROM THE GULF AROUND THE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION FROM THE LOW CENTER.

MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN YOUR AREAS AND NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR UPDATES.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

691 
ABNT20 KNHC 171151
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico 
is producing widespread but disorganized cloudiness, showers, and 
thunderstorms.  This system is expected to move northward, and a 
tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form over the 
west-central Gulf of Mexico tonight or early Friday.  An Air Force 
Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the 
disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.  Regardless of 
development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central 
America and southern Mexico during the next few days.  Heavy rains 
should also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on 
Friday.  Please consult products from your local meteorological 
service for more information. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JUNE 16, 2021

 

PLENTY OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA AS STORM INVEST 92L SITS STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTHWEST IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  SEEING STRONG STORMS OFFSHORE WESTERN CUBA AND SOME DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

HERE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161744
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of 
Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low 
pressure area.  This system will move little today and tonight, and 
little if any development is expected during that time due to 
interaction with land.  However, the system should begin to move 
northward on Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
by late Thursday or on Friday when the low moves across the western 
Gulf of Mexico.  An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft 
is scheduled to investigate the area on Thursday.  Regardless of 
development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central 
America and southern Mexico during the next few days.  Heavy rains 
should also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on 
Friday.  Please consult products from your local meteorological 
service for more information. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JUNE 16, 2021...11:12AM EDT

 

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS

JUNE 16, 2021...11:12AM EDT

GULF OF MEXICO, FLORIDA EAST COAST AND BAHAMAS

SOUTHERN GULF STILL SEEING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND STORMS DUE TO DISTURBANCE STATIONARY IN THE REGION.  STORM INVEST 92L PRODUCING AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA.  

INVEST 92L LOW IS STILL PARTIALLY OVER MEXICO BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWARD, AND WHEN IT MOVES AWAY FROM LAND SOME DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR.  SO FAR MODELS SUGGEST A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM SUCH AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUT WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW IT EVOLVES AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHWARD.

FLORIDA HAS BEEN GETTING HAMMERED BY STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS WHICH PRODUCED FLASH FLOODING OVER MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ENHANCING SHOWERS AND STORMS COURTESY OF INVEST 92L MOISTURE.

BAHAMAS MAY SEE SOME OF THESE STORMS AS TO PUSH OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA

THE CARIBBEAN HAS A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 76°-75° WEST OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH SAHARA DUST AND DRY AIR.

NORTH ATLANTIC, CENTRAL AND AFRICAN COAST

NORTH ATLANTIC HAS SHOWERS AND STORMS AND AREAS OF GALE WINDS, AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS SOME CLUSTERS AND STORMS AND TWO WAVES.  ONE WAVE NEAR 54°-53° WEST AND THE OTHER WEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 30° WEST.  BOTH OF THESE WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH SAHARA DUST AND DRY AIR.

AFRICA AND OFF SHORE WATERS IS SEEING WIDE SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.

RTW

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Ralph's Tropical Weather

TROPICAL STORM BILL 0500PM EDT

 

 ...BILL ALMOST AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... 

5:00 PM AST Tue Jun 15
Location: 41.6°N 59.6°W
Moving: NE at 36 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

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Ralph's Tropical Weather

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JUNE 15, 2021

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151717
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Bill, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Halifax, 
Canada.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay 
of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad 
low pressure area. This system is expected to move little during 
the next day or two, and any development should be slow to occur 
during that time period due to its close proximity to land.  
However, the disturbance should begin to move northward by 
Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in 
the week when the low moves across the central and 
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, 
heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America 
and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains 
could also begin to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast 
on Friday. Please consult products from your local 
meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Shower activity is limited in association with a tropical 
wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde 
Islands. Development, if any, should be slow to occur during the 
next couple of days while the wave moves westward. Thereafter, a 
combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds should 
end the chances of formation when the wave reaches the central 
tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Roth

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Ralph's Tropical Weather