...ELSA NOT LOOKING WELL DEFINED...LACKING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CENTER OF CIRCULATION...

 

AFTER REVIEWING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATION THIS MORNING, ELSA IS BARELY HOLDING ON TO HURRICANE STATUS.  

ELSA IS MOVING EVEN FASTER 31 MPH, THIS IS PRODUCING VERTICAL SHEAR OF THE STORM CENTER AND CAUSING THE  CENTER TO TILT IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY YOU CAN SEE THE FLUCTUATION IN CLOUD TEMPERATURE FROM WARM TO COLD AND BACK TO WARM.  

IN ORDER FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP, IT NEEDS TO HAVE A VERTICALLY STACKED CENTER, COLD CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE CENTER, AND NO VERTICAL SHEAR DISPERSING CLOUDS AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

AS LONG AS ELSA CONTINUES AT THIS FAST FORWARD SPEED, THE PROBABILITY OF STRENGTHENING IS MINIMAL.  ELSA IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME BEFORE LAND INTERACTION TO RECOVER HER STRENGTH.

HOWEVER, AFTER SEEING ELSA STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE WHILE MOVING AT 28 MPH YOU CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FLUCTUATION IN INTENSITY BEFORE INTERACTION WITH LAND MASS.

MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SUGGEST A TROPICAL STORM SOUTHWEST PASSING OVER CUBA AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FLORIDA COAST.  GFS NO LONGER SUGGESTING A HURRICANE, EURO IS NOW ONBOARD WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY THAT THIS WON'T BE A HURRICANE PASSING OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES.  HURRICANE CENTER MODELS ALSO NOT SUGGESTING A STRONG SYSTEM AS WELL.

WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND BE READY FOR WHAT IS TO COME.  BUT AS IT LOOKS NOW, ODDS OF A HURRICANE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE LOW.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

5:00 AM AST Sat Jul 3
Location: 16.2°N 69.0°W
Moving: WNW at 31 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

...HURRICANE ELSA A BIT WEAKER DUE TO FAST FORWARD MOTION PRODUCING VERTICAL SHEAR OVER STORM...

 

ELSA FAST FORWARD SPEED HAS TEMPORARILY HALTED STRENGTHENING PROCESS.

ELSA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME ON SATURDAY.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

11:00 PM AST Fri Jul 2
Location: 14.8°N 66.3°W
Moving: WNW at 29 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

 

NHC FORECAST TREND

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

...HURRICANE ELSA STRENGHTENS SOMEMORE AS THE STORM SPEEDS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 30 MPH...

 

ELSA WILL EVENTUALLY SLOW DOWN IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS THE STORM APPROACHES HAITI AND SOUTHEAST CUBA.  ELSA COULD STRENGTHEN SOME MORE AND MAYBE BECOME A CAT 2 OR 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.

FORECAST INTENSITY MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD HAPPEN BUT NOT FOR SURE.

REMEMBER THESE ARE ONLY FORECAST AND THEY ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE FROM MODEL RUN TO RUN.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

...ELSA MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR EASTERN CUBA...

5:00 PM AST Fri Jul 2
Location: 14.2°N 63.7°W
Moving: W at 30 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

 

 

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

HURRICANE ELSA UPDATE 11 AM EDT

 

ELSA MOVING FASTER 29 MPH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT THIS TIME.

RTW

...CENTER OF ELSA PASSING NEAR ST. VINCENT AND ST. LUCIA... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... 

11:00 AM AST Fri Jul 2
Location: 13.4°N 61.2°W
Moving: WNW at 29 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

 

CMC MODEL TREND ANIMATION

NHC FORECAST TREND ANIMATION

ELSA DEFIES LAWS OF PYSICS BY STERENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE WHILE MOVING NEAR 28 MPH

 

HURRICANE ELSA MANAGES TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

MODEL SPREAD TOWARD END OF FORECAST MEANS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST.  EURO MODEL SUGGEST THAT ELSA WILL TRACK OVER THE BAHAMAS WHILE GFS MODEL STILL SUGGEST OFF THE FLORIDA SOUTHWEST COAST.

WE ALL KNOW THAT BY NOW WE SHOULD HAVE ALL OUR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS KITS COMPLETED AND WE SHOULD BE READY FOR WHATEVER MOTHER NATURE TRACKS OUR WAY.  SO IF YOU ARE ONE OF THOSE WHO PROCRASTINATES, ITS TIME TO BEGIN JUST IN CASE.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

8:30 AM AST Fri Jul 2
Location: 13.1°N 60.1°W
Moving: WNW at 28 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

00Z 12 MIDNIGHT IS PREVIOUS MODEL RUN  AND 06Z 0600 AM  LATEST

TROPICAL STORM ELSA UPDATE...JULY 1, 2021...0500 PM EDT

 

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...ELSA STILL MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI... 

 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

5:00 PM AST Thu Jul 1
Location: 11.2°N 53.8°W
Moving: WNW at 29 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph 

 

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...JULY 1, 2021

 

A BRIEF TROPIC UPDATE:

MONITORING A STRONG WAVE PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTHWEST OF THE CAVO VERDE ISLANDS BEHIND TROPICAL STORM ELSA.  THIS IS A LOW LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE TRACKING WEST AND MORE THAN LIKELY WILL TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICAN COAST.  SO FAR MODELS ONLY SUGGEST LOW PRESSURE MAYBE DEVELOPING BUT DON'T SEE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT INTO NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG WAVE WILL EMERGE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST I WILL MONITOR THAT ONE AS WELL TOO.

REMNANTS SHOWERS AND STORMS OF INVEST 95L ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ARE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN AS IT TRACK WESTWARD.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.

RTW

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather