...ELSA NOT LOOKING WELL DEFINED...LACKING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CENTER OF CIRCULATION...

 

AFTER REVIEWING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATION THIS MORNING, ELSA IS BARELY HOLDING ON TO HURRICANE STATUS.  

ELSA IS MOVING EVEN FASTER 31 MPH, THIS IS PRODUCING VERTICAL SHEAR OF THE STORM CENTER AND CAUSING THE  CENTER TO TILT IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY YOU CAN SEE THE FLUCTUATION IN CLOUD TEMPERATURE FROM WARM TO COLD AND BACK TO WARM.  

IN ORDER FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP, IT NEEDS TO HAVE A VERTICALLY STACKED CENTER, COLD CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE CENTER, AND NO VERTICAL SHEAR DISPERSING CLOUDS AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

AS LONG AS ELSA CONTINUES AT THIS FAST FORWARD SPEED, THE PROBABILITY OF STRENGTHENING IS MINIMAL.  ELSA IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME BEFORE LAND INTERACTION TO RECOVER HER STRENGTH.

HOWEVER, AFTER SEEING ELSA STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE WHILE MOVING AT 28 MPH YOU CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FLUCTUATION IN INTENSITY BEFORE INTERACTION WITH LAND MASS.

MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SUGGEST A TROPICAL STORM SOUTHWEST PASSING OVER CUBA AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FLORIDA COAST.  GFS NO LONGER SUGGESTING A HURRICANE, EURO IS NOW ONBOARD WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY THAT THIS WON'T BE A HURRICANE PASSING OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES.  HURRICANE CENTER MODELS ALSO NOT SUGGESTING A STRONG SYSTEM AS WELL.

WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND BE READY FOR WHAT IS TO COME.  BUT AS IT LOOKS NOW, ODDS OF A HURRICANE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE LOW.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

5:00 AM AST Sat Jul 3
Location: 16.2°N 69.0°W
Moving: WNW at 31 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

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Ralph's Tropical Weather