TROPICAL STORM ELSA 0800 AM EDT UPDATE

 

MY APOLOGY FOR NO UPDATE IN THE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  I FELL SICK IN THE AFTERNOON.  I AM FEELING A LITTLE BETTER BUT NOT 100% YET.  HERE IS THE LATEST ON ELSA.

ELSA HAS PLENTY OF RAINS TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OVER CUBA AND FLORIDA AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHWEST, THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST.  THERE IS A 2% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...ELSA NEARING LANDFALL IN WEST-CENTRAL CUBA...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

 8:00 AM EDT Mon Jul 5
Location: 21.4°N 80.7°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

 

NHC FORECAST TREND

ELSA UPDATE JULY 4, 2021 0800 AM EDT

 

...ELSA VERY NEAR JAMAICA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA... 

8:00 AM EDT Sun Jul 4
Location: 18.3°N 76.2°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

 

...ELSA NOT ANY STRONGER TEMPORARY BURST OF CONVECTION NO INFLOW OUTFLOW DISORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM...

I WAS WRONG A TEMPORARY BURST OF CONVECTION AND I FORGOT TO ADD THAT THERE IS NO INFLOW OR OUTFLOW SO SYSTEM WAS IN A WEAKENING TREND DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH LAND.  ELSA DOWN TO A 65 MPH STORM AND INTERACTION WITH CUBA WILL NOT HELP THE STORM UNLESS IT STAYS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.  AIR FORCE RECON PLANE FOUND A WEAKER ELSA. ELSA IS MOVING SLOWER AS I MENTIONED EARLIER.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ELSA A LITTLE WEAKER AND MOVING SLOWER BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA...

 

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

...ELSA SLOWING DOWN NEW BURST OF CONVECTION (THUNDERSTORMS) SOME STRENGTHENING COLULD OCCUR...

 

AS I MENTIONED EARLIER ELSA WAS PUTTING ON THE BRAKES AND THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CAUGHT UP TO THE CENTER.  WE COULD SEE HURRICANE ELSA BEFORE IT NEARS EASTERN CUBA.  AIR FORCE RECON IS IN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE.  I AM SEEING A NEW LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION (THUNDERSTORMS) OVER THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

...ELSA SLOWS DOWN AS IT PASSES BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA... ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM... 

 8:00 PM EDT Sat Jul 3
Location: 17.8°N 74.7°W
Moving: WNW at 23 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

 

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

...ELSA GRADUALLY SLOWING DOWN...THUNDERSTORMS ARE CATCHING UP WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...

 

LATEST SATELLITE REVIEW SHOWS CONVECTION (THUNDERSTORM) CATCHING UP TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  THE ONLY THING HOLDING ELSA FROM REGAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH IS THE LAND INTERACTION.  HOWEVER, AS ELSA CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM HAITI, OVER OPEN WATERS, AND SLOWS DOWN SOME MORE, THERE COULD BE SOME STRENGTHENING.  

THERE ARE STILL TWO INTENSITY MODELS THAT SUGGEST ELSA AS A CAT 1 HURRICANE AGAIN.  THIS OF COURSE WOULD BE TEMPORARY AS CUBA IS IN ELSA PATH AND MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL MOST DEFINITELY DISRUPT THE STORMS STRUCTURE.

FLORIDA KEYS AND DRY TORTUGA UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND EVENTUALLY THAT WILL BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING DEPENDING ON ELSA'S STORM STRUCTURE SURVIVING MORE LAND INTERACTION.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

...CENTER OF ELSA CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... 

5:00 PM EDT Sat Jul 3
Location: 17.5°N 73.9°W
Moving: WNW at 28 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

 

NHC FORECAST TRACK TREND

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

...NHC FORECAST SHIFTS WEST TAKING A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OUT OF THE CONE...

 

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...CENTER OF ELSA PASSING SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI... 

 2:00 PM EDT Sat Jul 3
Location: 17.3°N 73.0°W
Moving: WNW at 29 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph