RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 8, 2021...04:12PM EDT

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081733
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
east of the Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected 
to be favorable to support some gradual development over the next 
few days, and this system could become a tropical depression while 
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  The disturbance is 
forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles late Monday, and 
then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and 
near Hispaniola around the middle of this week.  Interests in those 
areas should monitor the progress of this system, as it could bring 
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of that area.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located over the tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo 
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles have diminished this morning. 
Although environmental conditions appear to be only marginally  
conducive for development, this system could still become a 
tropical depression later this week while it moves toward the 
west-southwest or west at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 8, 2021

INVEST 92L DOWN TO 0% FORMATION CHANCE DRY AIR COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPS UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

INVEST 93L HAS LOSS SOME OF THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO DRY AROUND SURROUNDING THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.  THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE DRY AIR.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

INVEST 93L AHEAD OF 92L HAS A BIT MORE COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND THIS IS DUE THAT 93L AT A LOWER LATITUDE AND IN AN AREA WITH LESS DRY AIR.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE DRY SAHARA DUST/DRY AIR IN THE COMING DAYS.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081141
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms over the tropical Atlantic several hundred miles east 
of the Windward Islands.  Environmental conditions are expected 
to be favorable to support some gradual development, and this 
system could become a tropical depression while it moves west- 
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  The disturbance is forecast to 
reach portions of the Lesser Antilles late Monday and then move 
across the eastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles through the 
middle of this week.  Interests in those areas should monitor the 
progress of this system, as it could bring locally heavy rainfall 
and gusty winds to portions of that area.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located over the tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo 
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles have become more concentrated 
since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to become a 
little more favorable for gradual development, and this system 
could become a tropical depression within the next few days.  The 
system is forecast to move slowly toward the west-southwest or west 
during the next couple of days, and then move a little faster toward 
the west by mid-week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located about a hundred miles west of the southwesternmost 
Cabo Verde Islands have diminished since yesterday.  Strong 
upper-level winds and cooler waters are expected to prevent the 
development of this system while it moves toward the west or 
west-northwest. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

INVEST 93L

INVEST 94L

 

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICSL UPDATE AUG 7, 2021...10:26PM EDT

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 072315
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located about a hundred miles southwest of the 
southwesternmost Cabo Verde Islands have been decreasing during the 
past several hours.  Strong upper-level winds and cooler waters are 
expected to prevent significant development of this system while it 
moves toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph during the 
next few days.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall 
and gusty winds still are possible over portions of the westernmost 
Cabo Verde Islands through Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A small but well-defined area of low pressure located over the 
tropical Atlantic about a thousand miles west of the Cabo Verde 
Islands continues to produce limited shower activity.  
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more 
favorable for gradual development over the next several days, and 
this system could become a tropical depression by the middle of next 
week.  The system is forecast to drift toward the west-southwest or 
west during the next couple of days, and then move a little faster 
toward the west-northwest by mid-week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A surface trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic several 
hundred miles east of the Windward Islands.  Some gradual 
development of this system is possible while it moves 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, reaching portions of the Lesser 
Antilles late Monday and then moving across the eastern Caribbean 
Sea and Greater Antilles through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 7, 2021

 

INVESTIGATION 92L HAS TAKEN A TRACK NORTH FOR NOW INTO AN AREA WITH NO DRY AIR.  THIS IS TEMPORARY AND A TRACK BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF 92L ARE NOT FAVORABLE AND IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

NEW 93L HAS A BETTER CHANCE IF IT TRACKS SOUTH OF THE DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND STAYS ON A TRACK INTO THE CARIBBEAN.  IT DOES NOT SEEM THAT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN AS MODELS TRACK THIS SYSTEM NORTH IN TIME.  HOWEVER, THE 18z GFS DEVELOPS 93L AND TURNS IT AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S..

AS FOR THE NO NUMBER INVEST, THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT STAND A CHANCE IF IT TRACKS NORTH EITHER, HOWEVER SOME MODELS TAKE A WEAK SYSTEM INTO THE CARIBBEAN IN TIME AND DEVELOPS SOME IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

RTW

477 
ABNT20 KNHC 071730
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located a little more than 100 miles south of the 
southwesternmost Cabo Verde Islands have increased today.  Some 
gradual additional development is possible during the next day or 
so but strong upper-level winds and cooler waters are likely to 
prevent significant development after that time. The system is 
expected to move generally west-northwestward to northwestward 
across the eastern tropical Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph.  Regardless 
of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are 
possible over portions of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands 
tonight and Sunday. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A small but well-defined area of low pressure located over the 
tropical Atlantic about a thousand miles west of the Cabo Verde 
Islands continues to produce limited shower activity. Environmental 
conditions are expected to become a little more favorable for 
gradual development over the next several days, and this system 
could become a tropical depression by the middle of next week.  
The system is forecast to drift toward the west-southwest or west 
during the next couple of days, and then move a little faster 
toward the west-northwest early next week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave located over the west-central tropical Atlantic 
is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.  Significant 
development of this system is not anticipated as it moves 
west-northwestward across the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean 
Sea during the early to middle part of next week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown 

STORM INVEST 92L

STORM INVEST 93L