RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 9, 2021...03:30PM EDT

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091736
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the area of low pressure 
located about 100 miles east-northeast of Barbados continue to show 
signs of organization. However, recent satellite wind data indicates 
that the system currently lacks a well-defined center.  
Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for 
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
later today or tonight while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 
to 15 mph.  The disturbance is forecast to move through portions of 
the Lesser Antilles tonight, then move near the Virgin Islands and 
Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and Hispaniola on Wednesday. Tropical storm 
watches or warnings could be required this afternoon with 
shorter-than-normal lead times for portions of the Lesser Antilles, 
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.  In addition, heavy rains and 
flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and 
Puerto Rico.  Interests in those areas should monitor the progress 
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms in association with an elongated low 
pressure area located several hundred miles east of the Lesser 
Antilles have diminished.  Environmental conditions have become
unfavorable and development of this system is no longer expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Papin

EURO MODEL

CANADIAN MODEL

AMERICAN MODEL

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 9, 2021

 

INVEST 93L DOESN'T SEEM TO HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS LONG AS 94L REMAINS CLOSE BY.  93L IS LACKING THUNDERSTORMS AND DRY AIR SURROUNDS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.

AS FOR INVEST 94L IT IS IN A POCKET OF MOISTURE THAT IS ALLOWING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MAKING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEK.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091146
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated this morning 
in association with a low pressure system located about 150 miles 
east of Barbados. Environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  The disturbance is forecast to 
reach portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight, then move near the 
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola 
around the middle of this week.  Tropical storm watches or warnings 
could be required today with shorter-than-normal lead times for 
portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto 
Rico.  In addition, heavy rains and flooding are likely for the 
Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.  Interests in 
those areas should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have changed little in 
association with an elongated low pressure area located several 
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.  Development of this 
system is becoming less likely during the next few days while it 
moves toward the west or west-southwest at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown

12z GUIDANCE MODELS

06z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 8, 2021...04:12PM EDT

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081733
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
east of the Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected 
to be favorable to support some gradual development over the next 
few days, and this system could become a tropical depression while 
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  The disturbance is 
forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles late Monday, and 
then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and 
near Hispaniola around the middle of this week.  Interests in those 
areas should monitor the progress of this system, as it could bring 
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of that area.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located over the tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo 
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles have diminished this morning. 
Although environmental conditions appear to be only marginally  
conducive for development, this system could still become a 
tropical depression later this week while it moves toward the 
west-southwest or west at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 8, 2021

INVEST 92L DOWN TO 0% FORMATION CHANCE DRY AIR COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPS UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

INVEST 93L HAS LOSS SOME OF THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO DRY AROUND SURROUNDING THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.  THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE DRY AIR.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

INVEST 93L AHEAD OF 92L HAS A BIT MORE COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND THIS IS DUE THAT 93L AT A LOWER LATITUDE AND IN AN AREA WITH LESS DRY AIR.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE DRY SAHARA DUST/DRY AIR IN THE COMING DAYS.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081141
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms over the tropical Atlantic several hundred miles east 
of the Windward Islands.  Environmental conditions are expected 
to be favorable to support some gradual development, and this 
system could become a tropical depression while it moves west- 
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  The disturbance is forecast to 
reach portions of the Lesser Antilles late Monday and then move 
across the eastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles through the 
middle of this week.  Interests in those areas should monitor the 
progress of this system, as it could bring locally heavy rainfall 
and gusty winds to portions of that area.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located over the tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo 
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles have become more concentrated 
since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to become a 
little more favorable for gradual development, and this system 
could become a tropical depression within the next few days.  The 
system is forecast to move slowly toward the west-southwest or west 
during the next couple of days, and then move a little faster toward 
the west by mid-week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located about a hundred miles west of the southwesternmost 
Cabo Verde Islands have diminished since yesterday.  Strong 
upper-level winds and cooler waters are expected to prevent the 
development of this system while it moves toward the west or 
west-northwest. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

INVEST 93L

INVEST 94L