...PTC SIX IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING...

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...DISTURBANCE NOW SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...SYSTEM LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...

---

5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 10
Location: 16.9°N 65.5°W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

 

NEW STORM INVESTIGATION NO NUMBER I MENTION THIS MORNING

 

THIS MORNING I MENTIONED A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS.  THIS WAVE IN NOW A NEW STORM INVESTIGATION BEING MONITORED BY NHC.  THIS MAY BE THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM SOME OF THE MODELS WERE HINTING ON THIS MORNING IN SOME OF THE MODEL ANIMATION I POSTED.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101719
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential 
Tropical Cyclone Six, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms located a few 
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated 
with a tropical wave. Some gradual development of this system is 
possible over the next several days while it moves westward across 
the tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued 
under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. 
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued 
under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Latto

PLENTY OF WARM WATERS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS FOR SIX TO STRENGTHEN

 

SIX NOT YET A TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO BECOME ONE BEFORE NEAR PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  STORM WATCH AND WARNINGS FOR PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

WATER TEMPS ARE VERY WARM OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THAT COULD FUEL SIX AS IT NEARS THIS SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  INTENSITY MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A HURRICANE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT THAT IS NOT FOR SURE.  THOSE WATER IN THE STRAITS ARE DEFINITELY WARM ENOUGH FOR STORM STRENGTHENING THOUGH.  CLOSE EYE AND REMEMBER TO ALWAYS BE HURRICANE READY.

I AM ALSO WATCHING A STRONG WAVE SOUTH OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS THAT COULD BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THE DISTURBANCE IS NOT YET A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...

---

11:00 AM AST Tue Aug 10
Location: 16.3°N 63.8°W
Moving: WNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

 

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 9, 2021...03:30PM EDT

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091736
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the area of low pressure 
located about 100 miles east-northeast of Barbados continue to show 
signs of organization. However, recent satellite wind data indicates 
that the system currently lacks a well-defined center.  
Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for 
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
later today or tonight while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 
to 15 mph.  The disturbance is forecast to move through portions of 
the Lesser Antilles tonight, then move near the Virgin Islands and 
Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and Hispaniola on Wednesday. Tropical storm 
watches or warnings could be required this afternoon with 
shorter-than-normal lead times for portions of the Lesser Antilles, 
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.  In addition, heavy rains and 
flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and 
Puerto Rico.  Interests in those areas should monitor the progress 
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms in association with an elongated low 
pressure area located several hundred miles east of the Lesser 
Antilles have diminished.  Environmental conditions have become
unfavorable and development of this system is no longer expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Papin

EURO MODEL

CANADIAN MODEL

AMERICAN MODEL

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 9, 2021

 

INVEST 93L DOESN'T SEEM TO HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS LONG AS 94L REMAINS CLOSE BY.  93L IS LACKING THUNDERSTORMS AND DRY AIR SURROUNDS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.

AS FOR INVEST 94L IT IS IN A POCKET OF MOISTURE THAT IS ALLOWING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MAKING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEK.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091146
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated this morning 
in association with a low pressure system located about 150 miles 
east of Barbados. Environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  The disturbance is forecast to 
reach portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight, then move near the 
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola 
around the middle of this week.  Tropical storm watches or warnings 
could be required today with shorter-than-normal lead times for 
portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto 
Rico.  In addition, heavy rains and flooding are likely for the 
Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.  Interests in 
those areas should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have changed little in 
association with an elongated low pressure area located several 
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.  Development of this 
system is becoming less likely during the next few days while it 
moves toward the west or west-southwest at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown

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