...FRED HAS A ROUGH ROAD AHEAD AND OBSTICLES THAT WILL DEVILITATE THE STORMS STRUCTURE...

 

FRED HAS A ROUGH ROAD AHEAD, MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, DRY AIR, AND SOME WIND SHEAR IN THE AREA AS WELL.  THE WATERS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS STILL REMAIN VERY WARM BUT THIS MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH TO GET THIS STORM GOING AS IT INTERACT WITH CUBAN COAST.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AS IT TURNS NORTH TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST A DEPRESSION BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING.

RTW

...CENTER OF FRED JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

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8:00 AM AST Wed Aug 11
Location: 18.0°N 69.1°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

...PTC SIX IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING...

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...DISTURBANCE NOW SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...SYSTEM LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...

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5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 10
Location: 16.9°N 65.5°W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

 

NEW STORM INVESTIGATION NO NUMBER I MENTION THIS MORNING

 

THIS MORNING I MENTIONED A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS.  THIS WAVE IN NOW A NEW STORM INVESTIGATION BEING MONITORED BY NHC.  THIS MAY BE THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM SOME OF THE MODELS WERE HINTING ON THIS MORNING IN SOME OF THE MODEL ANIMATION I POSTED.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101719
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential 
Tropical Cyclone Six, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms located a few 
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated 
with a tropical wave. Some gradual development of this system is 
possible over the next several days while it moves westward across 
the tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued 
under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. 
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued 
under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Latto

PLENTY OF WARM WATERS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS FOR SIX TO STRENGTHEN

 

SIX NOT YET A TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO BECOME ONE BEFORE NEAR PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  STORM WATCH AND WARNINGS FOR PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

WATER TEMPS ARE VERY WARM OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THAT COULD FUEL SIX AS IT NEARS THIS SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  INTENSITY MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A HURRICANE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT THAT IS NOT FOR SURE.  THOSE WATER IN THE STRAITS ARE DEFINITELY WARM ENOUGH FOR STORM STRENGTHENING THOUGH.  CLOSE EYE AND REMEMBER TO ALWAYS BE HURRICANE READY.

I AM ALSO WATCHING A STRONG WAVE SOUTH OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS THAT COULD BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THE DISTURBANCE IS NOT YET A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...

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11:00 AM AST Tue Aug 10
Location: 16.3°N 63.8°W
Moving: WNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph