Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW

...FRED IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...CENTER OF FRED CROSSING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

5:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 11
Location: 18.9°N 71.0°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 11, 2021

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111744
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Fred, located about 30 miles west of Santo Domingo, Dominican 
Republic.

A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several 
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to 
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to become gradually more conducive for 
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by 
early next week while moving generally westward across the tropical 
Atlantic near 20 mph.  This system could reach portions of the 
Leeward Islands by late Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 11, 2021

95L HAS PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO MOVE THROUGH WILL SEE IF IT SURVIVES.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111143
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Fred, located about 50 miles east-southeast of Santo 
Domingo, Dominican Republic.

A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several 
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to 
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some gradual 
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression 
could form by early next week while moving generally westward 
across the tropical Atlantic near 20 mph.  This system could reach 
portions of the Leeward Islands by late Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

...FRED HAS A ROUGH ROAD AHEAD AND OBSTICLES THAT WILL DEVILITATE THE STORMS STRUCTURE...

FRED HAS A ROUGH ROAD AHEAD, MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, DRY AIR, AND SOME WIND SHEAR IN THE AREA AS WELL. THE WATERS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS STILL REMAIN VERY WARM BUT THIS MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH TO GET THIS STORM GOING AS IT INTERACT WITH CUBAN COAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AS IT TURNS NORTH TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST A DEPRESSION BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING.

RTW

...CENTER OF FRED JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

8:00 AM AST Wed Aug 11
Location: 18.0°N 69.1°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph