Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW

Saturday, August 14, 2021

GRACE AND FRED FORECAST COMBINED

...SQUALLY WEATHER FROM GRACE SPREADING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES WILL BE A CONCERN IN THE COMING DAYS...

5:00 PM AST Sat Aug 14
Location: 15.9°N 60.7°W
Moving: W at 26 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

...REMNANTS OF FRED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...

5:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 14
Location: 24.0°N 84.6°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

...LATEST NHC TRACK ALMOST MIMICS FRED'S PREVIOUS TRACK...

AS YOU CAN SEE IN MAP BELOW THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK FOR GRACE, TRACKS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES, SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO, DOMINICAN AND CUBA. WE ALL KNOW THIS WILL CHANGE FROM FORECAST TO FORECAST RUN, BUT IT DOES SEEM TO BE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE CAMPED OUT IN THIS REGION AND THESE STORMS ARE FOLLOWING THE SAME PATH. ALSO WEAKER SYSTEMS TEND TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD THAN STRONGER SYSTEMS, THAT ARE GOVERN BY COLD FRONTS AND WHERE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS LOCATED.

...NOW THAT FRED IS DOWN GRADED TO AN OPEN WAVE, SEVEN GETS THE NAME OF GRACE...

NOW THAT FRED IS DOWN FOR THE COUNT...I FOCUS MY ATTENTION ON GRACE UNTIL FRED MAKES HIS COME BACK IF AT ALL.

GRACE IS LOOKING HEALTHY OVER WARM WATERS AND LOW WIND SHEAR. A TRACK OVER SOME OF THE ISLANDS AND SOME COOLER WATER TEMPS NEAR DOMINICAN LEFT BEHIND BY FRED IS GOING TO BE AN OBSTACLE THAT GRACE WILL HAVE TO HURDLE. INTENSITY MODELS SUGGEST THAT GRACE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE STORMS LIFE TIME BUT WILL SEE.

THE TRACK IS ALMOST LIKE FRED'S OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BUT WE NO THIS WILL CHANGE IN TIME , MORE THAN LIKELY ANOTHER GULF STORM. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC IS GENERALLY TRACKING THESE STORMS WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THIS SEEMS TO BE THE PATTERN FOR NOW..

EURO MODEL TRACKS GRACE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES JUST LIKE FRED AND DOES NOT SHOW GRACE STRENGTHENING. GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AND TRACKS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA THEN STRENGTHENS IT INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE GULF AND TRACKS IT WEST TOWARD TEXAS.

ONCE AGAIN THESE MODELS TEND TO DO THIS AND WE KNOW THAT INTENSITY MODELS ARE NOT ACCURATE MOST OF THE TIME. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS OF FRED AND GRACE.

RTW