...IDA HAS NOT STRENGTHEN SINCE LAST ADVISORY BUT IT IS FORECAST THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...

 

STORM HAS NOT CHANGE IN STRENGTH BUT THE EYE IS RATHER SMALL AND TIGHT AND THIS COULD MEAN THAT IDA IS STRONGER. HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES HAVE BEEN HAVING MECHANICAL PROBLEMS TODAY SO THIS ADVISORY DOES NOT HAVE DATA FROM THE PLANE.  PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SO MORE THAN LIKELY IDA IS GETTING STRONGER.  I BEEN MONITORING MODEL TREND AND THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK.  THIS HAS BEEN NOTED BY NHC AS WELL.  HURRICANE WIND IMPACTS TO NEW ORLEANS IS INCREASING IF THE TRACK KEEPS SHIFTING EAST.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...IDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING...

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10:00 PM CDT Sat Aug 28
Location: 27.2°N 88.0°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 964 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

 

06z-12z-18z-00z MODEL TREND DEFINITE SHIFT EAST IN THIS ANIMATION

...HURRICANE IDA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWEST...TRACK A TAD MORE TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...

 

SINCE THE EYE FORMED A BIT EAST OF EARLIER FORECAST MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. NEVER FOLLOW THE STRAIT LINE OF THE FORECAST.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...IDA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY...

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4:00 PM CDT Sat Aug 28
Location: 26.2°N 87.0°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 976 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

 

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....IDA WILL SOON BE MOVING INTO THE WARM LOOP CURRENT THAT WILL BOOST INTENSIFICATION PROCESS...FINISH PREPARATIONS TODAY...

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...IDA EXPECTED TO BEGIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SOON... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

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10:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 28
Location: 24.8°N 86.1°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph