SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK THURSDAY 19, 2023

STAY UP TO DATE WITH SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK BY VISITING STORM PREDICTION CENTER.

EHANCED, SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY THURSDAY 19, 2023 FOR THE FOLLOWING OHIO COUNTIES:

ENHANCED RISK: Columbus, OH...Springfield, OH...Mansfield, OH...Newark, OH...Huber Heights, OH...

SLIGHT RISK: Cleveland, OH...Akron, OH...Dayton, OH...Parma, OH...Canton, OH...

MARGINAL RISK: Pittsburgh, PA...Toledo, OH...Cincinnati, OH...Fort Wayne, IN...Euclid, OH...

TORNADO PROBABILITIES

TORNADO PROB FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN OHIO:

2% Columbus, OH...Akron, OH...Dayton, OH...Canton, OH...Youngstown, OH...

HAIL PROBABILITIES

HAIL PROB FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN OHIO:

5% Columbus, OH...Dayton, OH...Springfield, OH...Kettering, OH...Middletown, OH...

DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES

DAMAGING WIND PROB FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN OHIO:

30% Columbus, OH...Springfield, OH...Mansfield, OH...Newark, OH...Huber Heights, OH...

15% Cleveland, OH...Akron, OH...Dayton, OH...Parma, OH...Canton, OH...

5% Pittsburgh, PA...Toledo, OH...Cincinnati, OH...Fort Wayne, IN...Euclid, OH...

Mesoscale Discussion 0077
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0648 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

   Areas affected...Parts of Upper MI

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 191248Z - 191745Z

   SUMMARY...Snow rates of 1-2 inches/hour will be possible for a few
   hours this morning.

   DISCUSSION...An area of moderate to heavy snow has been moving
   quickly northward across central/northern WI early this morning,
   within a strongly difluent upper-level flow regime to the northeast
   of a deepening mid/upper-level cyclone that is moving eastward out
   of the central Plains. This area of snow is moving into Upper
   Michigan, where colder temperature profiles may support somewhat
   higher snow ratios compared to farther south. In addition,
   large-scale ascent will likely become maximized between 15-18Z, as
   the mid/upper-level cyclone reaches peak intensity, and 1-2
   inch/hour snow rates may develop and persist over portions of Upper
   MI into the late morning hours, before a weakening trend commences
   by early/mid afternoon.

   ..Dean.. 01/19/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK

 THOSE OF YOU IN THE SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK RISK AREA NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO SPC UPDATES AND BE READY TO TAKE SHLETER IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.  

RTW

HERE ARE THE FOLLOWING AREAS AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS:

SLIGHT RISK: Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, TN...Bossier City, LA...

MARGINAL RISK: Houston, TX...Nashville, TN...Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Pasadena, TX...

TORNADO PROBABILITY

AREAS AT RISK FOR TORNADO:

5% Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Bossier City, LA...North Little Rock, AR...

2% Houston, TX...Nashville, TN...Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Pasadena, TX...

HAIL PROBABILITY

AREAS AT RISK FOR HAIL:

5% Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Tyler, TX...Fort Smith, AR...

DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY

AREAS AT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS:

15% Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, TN...Bossier City, LA...

5% Houston, TX...Nashville, TN...Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Pasadena, TX...

DAY 2 WEDNESDAY SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK

 A SLIGHT RISK ON WEDNESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR LATEST SPC UPDATES CLICK (HERE)!

HERE ARE THE FOLOWING AREAS THE STORM PREDICITION CENTER HAS UNDER THIS RISK:

SLIGHT: Memphis, TN...Jackson, MS...Lake Charles, LA...Jackson, TN...Pine Bluff, AR...

MARGINAL: Houston, TX...Nashville, TN...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Shreveport, LA...

TORNADO PROBABILITY

HERE ARE THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN THIS PROBABILITY RISK:

5% Memphis, TN...Jackson, TN...Pine Bluff, AR...Monroe, LA...Alexandria, LA...

2% Nashville, TN...Baton Rouge, LA...Shreveport, LA...Jackson, MS...Evansville, IN...

PROBABILITY OF HAIL

HERE ARE THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN THIS PROBABILITY RISK:

5% Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...

PROBABILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS

HERE ARE THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN THIS PROBABILITY RISK:

15% Memphis, TN...Jackson, MS...Lake Charles, LA...Jackson, TN...Pine Bluff, AR...

5% Houston, TX...Nashville, TN...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Shreveport, LA...

... A WINTER TYPE SUB-TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF SHORE THE EAST COAST IS BEING MONITORED BY NHC...

 

A RARE STORM SYSTEM WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION FORMED FROM A COLD CORE WINTER STORM OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A 0% CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME AND THE ONLY AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM TO THE U.S. IS WINTRY CONDITIONS WITH SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST, MIXED SNOW AND ICE.  YOU CAN'T RULE OUT THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A WARM CORE TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER NOVA SCOTIA.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161502
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for 
subtropical development over the northwest Atlantic.

Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical low pressure system centered over the northwestern 
Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles north of Bermuda is producing 
storm-force winds.  Although the cyclone is producing some 
thunderstorm activity near the center, it is embedded in a cold air 
mass with nearby frontal boundaries.  The low is expected to move 
northeastward today and northward tonight, bringing the system over 
much colder waters and across Atlantic Canada by early Tuesday.  
Therefore, it is unlikely that the low will transition to a 
subtropical or tropical cyclone.  Nevertheless, the system is 
expected to remain a strong non-tropical low during the next day or 
so, and additional information, including storm-force wind warnings, 
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service.  

No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for 
this system.  Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will 
resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will 
be issued as necessary during the off-season. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

VERY COLD NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING EXPECTED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA!

TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 30S OVER NIGHT AND THIS HAS PROMPTED A FROST WARNING WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND A FROST ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

IF YOU ARE A GROWER YOU NEED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES TO PREVENT CROP OR DELICATE PLANT DAMAGE.  

PLEASE REMEMBER TO BRING IN YOUR PETS THIS EVENING!

RTW

HERE ARE FORECAST TEMPS PER THE GFS, EURO AND THE CANADIAN MODEL"

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK FOR JAN 13, 2023

 A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE, USHERING IN COLD DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH. 

WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY BECOMING BREEZY MAKING IT FEEL COLDER THAN IT IS.  SATURDAY MORNING MAY REQUIRE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF FLORIDA AS THESE GUATY WINDS WILL MAKING IT FEEL COLDER THAN IT IS.

SPC DOES NOT SHOW ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY FOR THE NEX 8 DAYS.  CHECK DAILY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK FOR UPDATED CHART MAPS.

RTW

SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS 

THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK MAINLY FOR THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AS THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER CONTINUES WITH TWO LOW MOVING INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC, POSSIBILITY OF MORE FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES.

WPC FRONT ANALYSIS CHARTS

WPC NATIONAL FORECAST CHARTS

 

BUSY SEVERE STORM DAY FOR THE SOUHEAST U.S., STAY ALERT SET NOAA WEATHER RADIO ON ALERT!

 THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEED TO BE READY FOR SEVERE WEATHER STORMS TODAY:

ENHANCED RISK:  Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Sandy Springs, GA...

SLIGHT RISK: Charlotte, NC...Nashville, TN...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Knoxville, TN...Huntsville, AL...

MARGINAL RISK:  New Orleans, LA...Louisville, KY...Greensboro, NC...Baton Rouge, LA...Winston-Salem, NC...

TORNADO WATCH #0017

FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 17
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   655 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northern and central Alabama
     Central and eastern Mississippi
     Exreme southern middle Tennessee

   * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 655 AM until
     100 PM CST.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 75 mph possible
     Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A broken band of pre-frontal storms will increase in
   intensity through the day while spreading eastward from Mississippi
   into Alabama.  The more intense supercells could produce tornadoes,
   including a strong tornado or two, along with isolated large hail. 
   The threat for damaging winds up to 75 mph will increase through the
   day as some upscale growth occurs and bowing segments evolve through
   the day.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Huntsville AL to
   45 miles west of Pine Belt MS. For a complete depiction of the watch
   see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

DAY 2 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK SLIGHT RISK, STAY UP TO DATE WITH STORM PREDICTION CENTER UPDATES!

STORM PREDICTION CENTER CALLING FOR A SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Huntsville, AL...

Charlotte, NC...Nashville, TN...New Orleans, LA...Louisville, KY...Lexington-Fayette, KY...

DAY 2 TORNADO OUTLOOK FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

2% ...Charlotte, NC...Nashville, TN...Atlanta, GA...Louisville, KY...Lexington-Fayette, KY...

DAY 2 DAMAGING WIND OUTLOOK FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

15% ...Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Huntsville, AL...

5% ...Charlotte, NC...Nashville, TN...New Orleans, LA...Louisville, KY...Lexington-Fayette, KY...