SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK, PER STORM PREDICTION CENTER
DAY 1
DAY 2
DAY 3 A (MARGINAL RISK) FOR SEVERE STORMS
AREAS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED BY SEVERE STORMS:
...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Metairie, LA...
DAY 3 TORNADO PROBABILITY
5% RISK ...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Metairie, LA...
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
DAY 2-3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
NATIONAL FORECAST CHARTS
MESO DISCUSSION
Mesoscale Discussion 0118
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0718 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma and adjacent west-central and
southwestern Arkansas...and southward to central Texas
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 311318Z - 311715Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain, falling at rates in excess of 0.05" per
hour, can be expected this morning from central Texas northeastward
across southeastern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Arkansas.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows the cold front now over
the western Gulf of Mexico, having cleared even deep South Texas.
As a result, temperatures across much of the state -- with the
exception of the Coastal Plain -- are near or below freezing.
As the western U.S upper system (low centered over far northern Baja
at this time) advances slowly eastward, a broad/leading plume of
ascent -- evident in water vapor imagery across northern Mexico and
the southern Plains, and arcing anticyclonically eastward across the
Southeast -- is contributing to the development of convective
precipitation across parts of central and northern Texas.
This evolution is fairly well-handled by current CAM runs, which
suggest the convection will continue to increase in coverage, and
spread northeastward across southeastern Oklahoma with time, and
eventually into parts of western Arkansas through late
morning/midday.
Morning RAOBs, and model point forecast soundings, reveal warm air
aloft and weak instability, atop the sub-freezing boundary layer.
This suggests potential for freezing rain, with rates in excess of
0.05" per hour, including substantially greater rates over short
intervals locally, as convective cells shift quickly northeastward.
Freezing rain is being observed at this time across central and
northern Texas with this developing precipitation, though parts of
western North Texas and into south-central Oklahoma may also
experience sleet, given the increasingly deep surface-based layer of
sub-freezing air with northward extent.
..Goss.. 01/31/2023
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