SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA AND LATEST MESO DISCUSSION FROM SPC

 

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SAW0 
   WW 30 TORNADO AL FL CW 250900Z - 251600Z
   AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
   50NW PFN/PANAMA CITY FL/ - 30NE AAF/APALACHICOLA FL/
   ..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /22ESE CEW - 35SSW TLH/
   HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
   MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.

   LAT...LON 31458628 30768468 29318468 30018628

   THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
   FOR WOU0.

Watch 30 Status Report Messages:

STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 30

VALID 251335Z - 251440Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S PFN TO
15 NE MAI.

..GOSS..01/25/23

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 30 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

FLC005-013-037-045-077-251440-

FL 
.    FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAY		     CALHOUN		 FRANKLIN	     
GULF		     LIBERTY		 
$$


GMZ752-755-251440-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

COASTAL WATERS FROM MEXICO BEACH TO APALACHICOLA OUT 20 NM 

COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 30

VALID 251125Z - 251240Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW PFN
TO 20 W DHN.

..GOSS..01/25/23

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 30 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ALC061-069-251240-

AL 
.    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

GENEVA		     HOUSTON		 
$$


FLC005-013-037-045-059-063-077-133-251240-

FL 
.    FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAY		     CALHOUN		 FRANKLIN	     
GULF		     HOLMES		 JACKSON	     
LIBERTY 	     WASHINGTON 	 
$$


GMZ750-752-755-251240-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

COASTAL WATERS FROM OKALOOSA-WALTON COUNTY LINE TO MEXICO BEACH
OUT 20 NM 

COASTAL WATERS FROM MEXICO BEACH TO APALACHICOLA OUT 20 NM 

COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

Mesoscale Discussion 0106
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0936 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023

   Areas affected...Southern GA...Eastern FL Panhandle into northern FL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 30...

   Valid 251536Z - 251700Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 30 continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated wind gusts will remain possible, particularly
   along the coast, within the convective line moving across southern
   GA, the eastern FL Panhandle, and northern FL. Overall limited
   severe potential should preclude the need for a watch downstream
   across northern FL.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorm
   extending from southwest GA southwestward through the central FL
   Peninsula and off the coast at AAF. Individual cells within the line
   are moving northeastward at around 35 kt, while the line itself
   moves eastward at about 16 kt. This motion takes the northern
   portion of line to the edge of Tornado Watch 30 within the next
   hour, and the southern portion within the next two hours. 

   VAD wind profile at TLH continue to show strong wind fields, with 50
   kt recently sampled at 1 km. However, buoyancy within the air mass
   remains limited, evidenced by the low storm tops and somewhat
   anafrontal structure across much of the line. Convective wind gusts
   have also been muted as the line moves through, with surface
   observations sampling only modest gusts. Expectation is for this
   general trend to continue as it progresses eastward over the next
   few hours, limiting the downstream severe potential. 

   Even so, given the strong low-level flow, a few stronger gusts and a
   brief tornado could still occur, particularly close to the coast.
   Overall limited severe potential is expected to preclude the need
   for a watch downstream across northern FL, but convective trends
   will be monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 01/25/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK