NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED DAYS 1-3 ACCORDING TO THE
Friday, February 3, 2023
Thursday, February 2, 2023
DAYS 1-3 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK... THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK...
DAYS 1-3 NOTHING SIGNIFICANT STORM WISE BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MARGINAL RISK FOR A SMALL AREA. STAY UP TO DATE WITH STORM PREDICTION CENTER SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS.
10:17am CST #SPC Day1 Outlook Marginal Risk: mainly late tonight across parts of the Florida Panhandle https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
MARGINAL RISK: ...Tallahassee, FL...Panama City, FL...Fort Walton Beach, FL...Lynn Haven, FL...Callaway, FL...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TODAY:
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
MARGINAL RISK
DAYS 1-3 NATTIONAL FORECAST CHARTS
Wednesday, February 1, 2023
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK WITH A 2% RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADO... ...ICE STORM CONTINUES FOR TEXAS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW... ...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SLIGHT RISK DAY 2...
DAY 2 SHOWS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND A 2% FOR ISOLATED TORNADO. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT BUT YOU NEED TO BE AWARE THAT STORMS COULD PRODUCE A QUICK SPIN UP OF A LOWER LEVEL ISOLATED TORNADO.
HERE ARE THE AREAS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED BY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OR TORNADO.
New Orleans, LA...Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...
TORNADO PROBABILITY 2% CHANCE THAT A TORNADO WILL SPIN UP.
AREAS THAT COULD EXPERIENCE A TORNADO.
Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Gulfport, MS...Dothan, AL...Pensacola, FL...
HAIL PROBABILITY 5% CHANCE OF HAIL.
AREAS THAT COULD EXPERIENCE A HAIL.
New Orleans, LA...Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...
DAY 3 A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM LESS THAN 5%
ICY CONDTIONS PERSIST FOR TEXAS TODAY AND TOMORROW EASING OFF BY WEDNESDAY. RADAR SHOWS PERSISTENT RAIN TURNING TO ICE OVER TEXAS ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. SNOW FOR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
RTW
POWER OUTAGE MAP SHOWS 100K+ OUTAGE FOR TEXAS. CLICK HERE FOR THE LATEST UPDATES TO THIS REAL TIME MAP.
DAYS 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING!
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER NATIONAL FORECAST CHARTS
Tuesday, January 31, 2023
...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON DAY 3... ...ICE STORM STILL AFFECTING TEXAS... ...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED IN THE COMING DAYS...
SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK, PER STORM PREDICTION CENTER
DAY 1
DAY 2
DAY 3 A (MARGINAL RISK) FOR SEVERE STORMS
AREAS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED BY SEVERE STORMS:
...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Metairie, LA...
DAY 3 TORNADO PROBABILITY
5% RISK ...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Metairie, LA...
DAY 2-3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL FORECAST CHARTS
MESO DISCUSSION
Mesoscale Discussion 0118
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0718 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma and adjacent west-central and
southwestern Arkansas...and southward to central Texas
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 311318Z - 311715Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain, falling at rates in excess of 0.05" per
hour, can be expected this morning from central Texas northeastward
across southeastern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Arkansas.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows the cold front now over
the western Gulf of Mexico, having cleared even deep South Texas.
As a result, temperatures across much of the state -- with the
exception of the Coastal Plain -- are near or below freezing.
As the western U.S upper system (low centered over far northern Baja
at this time) advances slowly eastward, a broad/leading plume of
ascent -- evident in water vapor imagery across northern Mexico and
the southern Plains, and arcing anticyclonically eastward across the
Southeast -- is contributing to the development of convective
precipitation across parts of central and northern Texas.
This evolution is fairly well-handled by current CAM runs, which
suggest the convection will continue to increase in coverage, and
spread northeastward across southeastern Oklahoma with time, and
eventually into parts of western Arkansas through late
morning/midday.
Morning RAOBs, and model point forecast soundings, reveal warm air
aloft and weak instability, atop the sub-freezing boundary layer.
This suggests potential for freezing rain, with rates in excess of
0.05" per hour, including substantially greater rates over short
intervals locally, as convective cells shift quickly northeastward.
Freezing rain is being observed at this time across central and
northern Texas with this developing precipitation, though parts of
western North Texas and into south-central Oklahoma may also
experience sleet, given the increasingly deep surface-based layer of
sub-freezing air with northward extent.
..Goss.. 01/31/2023
Monday, January 30, 2023
POTENTIAL ICE STORM WITH MIXED PRECIPTATION AND FLOODING IN THE COMING DAYS!
MONITORING ICE STORM POTENTIAL COMING DAYS AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA EAST-NORTHEAST TO VIRGINA. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR UPDATES.
RTW
Mon 1/30/2023 DANGEROUS TRAVEL expected due to slick/icy roads from multiple rounds of freezing rain & sleet today into Wednesday across portions of the Southern Plains into the Mid-South. Stay off roads if possible. If you do drive, slow down & allow for additional travel time
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