SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK FOR TODAY CALLS FOR AN ENHANCED, SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST U.S.. VISIT THE STORM PREDICITION CENTER FOR THE LATEST SEVERE STORM OUTLOOKS, WATCHES MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #761 AND TORNADO WATCH 0210 FOR THIS MORNING:
Mesoscale Discussion 0761
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0900 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023
Areas affected...northern Louisiana into western Mississippi
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 111400Z - 111630Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A concentrated area of strong storms will likely persist
today, with a few severe storms expected.
DISCUSSION...Storms continue to evolve around an MCS, with a very
moist and unstable air mass available. Sufficient low-level shear
exists to support rotation within the stronger cells as they
propagate around the south and east side of the MCV, with low-level
shear enhancement from the MCV itself. Winds aloft are weak, but
low-level SRH is favorable with 850 mb winds over 30 kt. A focused
area of strong to locally severe storms, including strong gusts or
marginal hail, will remain possible throughout the day as the air
mass heats ahead of the MCV.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/11/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
WOUS64 KWNS 111421
WOU0
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 210
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 AM CDT THU MAY 11 2023
TORNADO WATCH 210 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ARC003-017-139-112200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0210.230511T1425Z-230511T2200Z/
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT UNION
LAC009-013-021-025-029-031-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-069-
073-079-081-083-085-107-111-115-123-127-112200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0210.230511T1425Z-230511T2200Z/
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
AVOYELLES BIENVILLE CALDWELL
CATAHOULA CONCORDIA DE SOTO
EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN GRANT
JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN
MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES
OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER
RICHLAND SABINE TENSAS
UNION VERNON WEST CARROLL
WINN THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY:
ENHANCED RISK: Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Norman, OK...Lawton, OK...
SLIGHT RISK: Jackson, MS...Wichita Falls, TX...Monroe, LA...Salina, KS...Alexandria, LA...
MARGINAL RISK: Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Baton Rouge, LA...
THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR TORNADO TODAY:
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Edmond, OK...Midwest City, OK...Moore, OK...
10% PROBABILITY: Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Norman, OK...Lawton, OK...
5% PROBABILITY: Wichita Falls, TX...Monroe, LA...Salina, KS...Alexandria, LA...Muskogee, OK...
2% PROBABILITY: Fort Worth, TX...Jackson, MS...Topeka, KS...Denton, TX...Lewisville, TX...
THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM DAMAGING WINDS TODAY:
15% PROBABILITY: Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Jackson, MS...Norman, OK...
5% PROBABILITY: Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Baton Rouge, LA...
THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM DAMAGING WINDS TODAY:
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...
30% PROBABILITY: Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Lawton, OK...Edmond, OK...Midwest City, OK...
15% PROBABILITY: Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Wichita Falls, TX...Broken Arrow, OK...Salina, KS...
5% PROBABILITY: Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...
