STILL MONITORING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MULTIPLE LOWS THAT ARE PRODUCING STRONG STORMS OVER FLORIDA THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC AND TRACK TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST AS A WEAK LOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS LOW COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINS AS IT MOVES INLAND BRIEFY BEFORE TRACKING OFFSHORE CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
RAINS AND STORMS ARE STILL LIKELY OVER A PORTION OF FLORIDA BUT THERE IS NO MARGINAL RISK PER SPC. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
REFER TO NHC BELOW FOR TROPICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
RTW
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Atlantic: A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form along a frontal boundary offshore of the southeastern United States coast within the next day or two. The system appears unlikely to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone since it is forecast to remain frontal while moving generally northward and inland over the Carolinas this weekend. Regardless, the system is likely to produce gusty winds and dangerous surf and rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern United States coast late this week and into the weekend. Heavy rainfall is expected in portions of the Carolinas with hazardous marine conditions expected over the coastal and offshore waters where gale warnings are in effect. For more information, see products from your local National Weather Service office and high seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Brown
000 AXNT20 KNHC 251022 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu May 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... W Atlantic Gale Warning: The 1007 mb low pressure system near SW coast of Florida is forecast to strengthen and drift over the western Atlantic through Sat. The system will then move north through Sat night. The pressure gradient between the high pressure over the eastern U.S. and the low will support fresh to strong NE winds and large NE swell across the NE Florida offshore waters beginning Thu night, spreading southward to near Daytona Beach Fri through Sat. NE gales are expected offshore northern Florida beginning on Fri evening and continue through the night. Seas will build to near 15 ft Fri night. Winds and seas will diminish late Sat into Sun as the low moves north of the area. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W, south of 12N, moving westward around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 11N and east of 28W. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 34W, south of 12N, moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 49W, south of 12N, moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 09N13W to 05N28W. The ITCZ extends from 05N28W to 05N33W, then from 04N35W to 04N49W, and then from 05N50W to 08N59W. All significant convection is described in the tropical wave section above. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for information about the low currently centered over the SW Gulf. The combination of the low pressure near the SW coast of Florida, ample moisture, and divergence aloft is enhancing scattered showers over the eastern half of the basin. A weak high pressure regime dominates the rest of the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted N of 28N and E of 90W. Similar N-NE winds are noted in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas in the regions described are 2-3 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle anticyclonic winds and slight seas prevail. Haze is noted over most of the central and western Gulf sections due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico and in Central America. For the forecast, the moderate to fresh winds over the NE gulf waters will prevail through Sat morning. Otherwise, weak high pressure will dominate the basin through the next several days, supporting gentle to moderate winds. Slight seas will build to moderate through Sat. Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico near 19N99W remains in a state of unrest and continues to erupt and produce volcanic ash, however the current ash plume is confined inland. Mariners should still exercise caution in the southern Bay of Campeche in case additional, and more northward plumes develop. If mariners encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris, you are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4424. CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside from the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Windward Passage and off northern Colombia, mainly dry conditions prevail across the basin. The subtropical ridge extends weakly into the basin, supporting moderate easterly winds in the eastern Caribbean and primarily light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas of 2-4 ft are occurring in the eastern Caribbean and 1-2 ft elsewhere. Haze is present over the northwestern Caribbean due to agricultural fires in Central America. For the forecast, elongated troughing N of the basin will help to maintain a weak pres gradient across the central and western Caribbean today, supporting light to gentle winds. A trough will prevail across the NW Caribbean through the end of the week, leading to a slight increase in winds and seas. Over the E Caribbean, the Azores High will support gentle to moderate E-SE trade winds through the weekend, diminishing slightly into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for more details on the developing gale force low in the western Atlantic. A 1007 mb low pressure is centered near SW Florida. A surface trough extends from the low near 25N81W to 28N76W. Abundant tropical moisture and divergence aloft results in a broad area of scattered showers and thunderstorms between 63W and Florida and north of the Greater Antilles. A recent scatterometer pass depict fresh to strong winds associated with the strongest storms. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 29N33W to 19N31W with no significant convection at this time. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an extensive subtropical ridge positioned well north of the Azores. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are found between mainly 35W and 67W. Wave heights in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the low pres is forecast to strengthen and drift over the W Atlc then move N through Sat night. The pres gradient between high pres over the eastern U.S. and the low will support fresh to strong NE winds and large NE swell across the NE Florida offshore waters beginning tonight, spreading southward to near Daytona Beach Fri through Sat before the low moves N of the area. NE gales are expected offshore northern Florida Fri night. $$ ERAGFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER SHOWS LOW BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT LIKE A STRONGTROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE.
ENSEMBLE ARE SHOW THE LOW APRAOCHING THE COAST BUT NOT AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM.MOSTLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS
EURO (ECMWF) MODELCANADIAN (GEM) MODELAMERICAN (GFS) MODELYOU CAN SEE AS HEAVY RINS ARE OFF SHORE AND THEN MOVE INLAND BY SAT-MONDAY.MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR FLORIDA SLIGHT/MARGINAL FOR THE CAROLINASDURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FLOODING WILL BE THE MAJOR CONCERN WITH THIS LOW.SURFACE FRONTS AND SEA-LEVEL PRESSURES WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
