I AM MONITORING A DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF TRACKING EAST. IF THIS DISTURBANCE HOLDS TOGETHER, IT COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND STORM FOR FLORIDA IN THE COMING DAYS.
ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW COMING OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND SOME OUT OF THE GULF. I AM ALSO KEEPING AN EYE IN THOSE OCEAN BASIN AS THESE ARE AREAS TO MONITOR IN JUNE.
I AM SEEING 5 TROPICAL WAVE MARCHING WEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE ATLANTIC. NONE OF THESE WAVES ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.
RTW
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Papin NNNN
NATL. HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC
000 AXNT20 KNHC 301036 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue May 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 21W, from 11N to 03N, moving west at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 08N between 18W and 25W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 33/34W, from 11N to 01N, moving west at 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 09N, between 27W and 36W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 46/47W, from 11N to 01N, moving west at 10 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 43W and 49W. A weak, western Atlantic tropical wave extends along 60W, from 11N to 01N, moving west at 10 knots. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 55W and 62W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 72/73W, from 13N to 03N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed over western Venezuela and eastern Colombia near the wave axis from 07N to 11N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 07N21W. The ITCZ continues in segments interrupted by tropical waves from 07N21W to 05N32W and from 05N35W to 05N44W. In addition to the convection described in the tropical wave section above, scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 06N between 08W and 14.5W, and from 07N to 10N between 37W and 42.5W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula northward to the central Gulf of Mexico near 25N90W. An upper-level trough extends across the Gulf from western Louisiana to the Yucatan Peninsula. Due to low-level convergence from the surface trough and upper-level diffluence just east of the upper- trough axis, numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted over the central Gulf from 23N to 27.5N between 87.5W and 91W, strongest from 23N to 25.5N between 88W and 89.5W. Weak surface high pressure of 1013 mb is centered near 27.5N86W. A weak cold front extends from Apalachicola, FL to New Orleans, LA. Winds across the Gulf of Mexico are mostly gentle to moderate with seas 3 ft or less. However, locally stronger winds and higher seas are possible within and near the aforementioned convective area. For the forecast, a surface trough or surface low pressure could form over the south-central or southeastern Gulf tonight or Wed and potentially linger over the eastern Gulf into Fri. Moderate winds are forecast in the area, but there is a chance that the trough or low could develop fresh to strong winds later this week. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are also possible across the eastern half of the Gulf Wed into Fri. Elsewhere, over the western Gulf, high pressure should lead to gentle to moderate winds into the weekend, with occasional fresh pulses along the W coast of Yucatan. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough axis extends from western Louisiana to the Yucatan Peninsula to El Salvador. East of the upper-trough axis, upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection across the NW Caribbean north of 17N and west of 75W to 88W. Similar activity is noted from 13.5N to 17N and west of 81.5W. The east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered thunderstorms south of 12N between 75.5W and 81W. No major precipitation areas are noted east of 75W, except for inland over Venezuela, where moderate to strong convection is occurring over portions of that country. Moderate trades prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean, locally fresh near the coast of western Venezuela and Colombia. Seas are 3-4 ft across the eastern and central Caribbean, except for 4-5 ft in the south-central basin. Light to gentle winds prevail over the western Caribbean, except for moderate SE over the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 1-3 ft across the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses along the N coast of Venezuela and Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak stationary boundary extends southwestward from a 1013 mb low pressure near 34N71W to 31N73W to S Florida near 27N80W. A 1013 mb high pressure is centered NW of the front near 30N78W, where winds are light to gentle with 2-4 ft seas. E of the front, winds are gentle to moderate from the S with 3-5 ft seas. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends south- southeastward from the aforementioned low pressure N of the area, and these showers and thunderstorms cover the area north of 28N between 66.5W and 71W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted over the southeast Bahamas area, mainly south of 25N between 71W and 76.5W. In the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N31W to 29N38W to 29.5N41W, stationary to 31N44W. N of the front, winds are moderate from the NW with 6-8 ft seas. S of the front, winds are fresh from the WSW with 5-7 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1020 mb high pressure centered near 26N24W dominates the pattern. Winds are light to gentle near the high, increasing to fresh NE winds south of 24N between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands, where seas are 6-8 ft. Throughout the basin south of 20N, winds are moderate to fresh from the E with 5-7 ft seas. For the forecast W of 55W, a weak pressure pattern will result in quiescent conditions through Thu. A broad area of low pres is likely to form by late this week, extending across the western Atlantic from Florida to well south of Bermuda. Increasing winds and building seas are likely over the waters east of the Bahamas on Sat. Expect increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the western Atlantic by Thu. $$ Hagen
GFS MODEL ENSEMBLE
EURO MODEL ENSEMBLE
CANADIAN MODEL ENSEMBLE
GFS MODEL ENSEMBLE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
SURFACE FRONTS AND SEA-LEVEL PRESSURES
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS
YOU CAN SEE THAT DAYS 1-7 THERE IS PLENTY OF RAINFALL OVER FLORIDA AND IN THE GULF. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A PORTION OF FLORIDA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
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