The low pressure disturbance has meander northward into warmer waters allowing for this system to organize some over night. There is a chance for some slow development, but it should be a short lived system according most of the models.
As for the flooding rains as we first thought with previous model run it remans questionable. If this system tracks south and away from Florida the heavy rain chances decrease.
We still have a strong southwesterly sub-tropical jet over the northwest Caribbean and the Bahamas, but so far the rains we were suppose to get last night, never materialized due to the southwesterly mid to upper level jet shifting toward the east and the low pressure moving further away from southern Florida west coast.
The Weather Predication Center is still forecasting a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, for a portion of Florida during the next 3 days. So we continue to monitor. South Florida is still under a flood watch through Friday evening
Upper level conditions are forecast to become unfavorable during the next few days preventing this weather system from developing further. I will continue to monitor and will post here if any changes to there is changes to the forecast.
RTW
Flood Watch
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Miami FL
146 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023
FLZ063-066>068-071>074-168-172>174-020845-
/O.EXT.KMFL.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-230603T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Glades-Hendry-Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Inland Broward County-Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Coastal Palm Beach County-Coastal Broward
County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-Dade County-
Including the cities of Sunrise, Royal Palm Ranger, Hendry
Correctional, Lion Country Safari Park, Muse, Greenacres City, Palm
Beach Gardens, Florida Gardens, Ortona, Boca Raton, Miramar,
Caloosa, Miami, Hollywood, Pompano Beach, Delray Beach, Lake Worth,
Hialeah, Miccosukee Indian Reservation, Lakeport, Sandalfoot Cove,
Brighton Seminole, Sawgrass Mills Mal, Wellington, Davie, Moore
Haven, Kendale Lakes, West Palm Beach, Jupiter, Homestead,
Clewiston, Boynton Beach, Buckhead Ridge, Mahogany Hammock,
Deerfield Beach, Carol City, Royal Palm Beach, Belle Glade, Pembroke
Pines, Kendall, Felda, The Acreage, Riviera Beach, Coral Springs,
Palmdale, and Fort Lauderdale
146 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023
...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...Portions of southeast Florida and southern Florida,
including the following areas, in southeast Florida, Coastal
Broward County, Coastal Miami Dade County, Coastal Palm Beach
County, Far South Miami-Dade County, Inland Broward County, Inland
Miami-Dade County, Inland Palm Beach County, Metro Broward County,
Metro Palm Beach County and Metropolitan Miami Dade. In southern
Florida, Glades and Hendry.
* WHEN...Several rounds of precipitation possible through at least
Friday evening.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Widespread amounts of 2 to 4 inches of rainfall are possible
over the next few days with localized amounts of 6+ inches
possible.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico have increased and become better organized during the overnight hours. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development over the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form over that time span as the system meanders over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, by this weekend environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as the system drifts southward, likely remaining offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall could occur over portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30. The long-term averages for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 14, 7, and 3, respectively. The list of names for 2023 is as follows: Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation -------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Arlene ar-LEEN Lee lee Bret bret Margot MAR-go Cindy SIN-dee Nigel NY-juhl Don dahn Ophelia o-FEEL-ya Emily EH-mih-lee Philippe fee-LEEP Franklin FRANK-lin Rina REE-nuh Gert ger Sean shawn Harold HAIR-uld Tammy TAM-ee Idalia ee-DAL-ya Vince vinss Jose ho-Zay Whitney WHIT-nee Katia KAH-tya This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days. The issuance times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT. After the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST. A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular Tropical Weather Outlooks. A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected changes or to modify watches or warnings. NHC has the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. For these land-threatening "potential tropical cyclones", NHC will issue the full suite of advisory and watch/warning products. Potential tropical cyclones share the naming conventions currently in place for tropical depressions, being numbered from a single list (e.g., "One", "Two", "Three", etc.). The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of significant changes in a tropical cyclone, to post or cancel watches or warnings, or to provide hourly position updates between intermediate advisories when the storm center is easily followed by radar. It is used in lieu of or to precede the issuance of a special advisory package. Tropical Cyclone Updates, which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5. All NHC text and graphical products are available on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov. More information on NHC text and graphical products can be found at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Product_Description.pdf. New and updated products for the 2023 season can be found at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_New_Products_Updates_2023.pdf. You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC. Notifications are available via Twitter when select National Hurricane Center products are issued. Information about our Atlantic Twitter feed (@NHC_Atlantic) is available at https://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.php. Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi/Brown
The EURO ensemble model is not very excited about 91L
The GFS shows a weak low tracking south and back toward the east as a weak low.
Excessive Rainfall Forecasts Days 1-3
Upper Level Winds
Red Unfavorable, Green Favorable, Yellow Neutral conditions
Shear Increasing in the (White) and Decreasing if in the light (Blue).
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