..BRET MOVING THROUGH DRY AIR AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR.. ..CINDY IS PRESENTLY IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVLOPMENT AND IS LOOKING BETTER ORGANIZED..

 

BRET IS NOW MOVING THROUGH DRY AIR AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND IS STRUGGLING TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM.  BRET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DOWN TO A DEPRESSION DISSIPATE TO AN OPEN WAVE.

CINDY ON THE OTHER HAND IS MOVING THROUGH A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, AND COULD DEVELOP SOME MORE BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST INTO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  CINDY IS NO THREAT TO LAND BUT COULD COME CLOSE TO BERMUDA IF IT MANAGES TO HOLD HER OWN.  

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...BRET MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LINGER IN PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...

11:00 AM AST Fri Jun 23 Location: 13.3°N 64.7°W Moving: W at 21 mph Min pressure: 1002 mb Max sustained: 60 mph

...TROPICAL STORM CINDY A LITTLE STRONGER...

11:00 AM AST Fri Jun 23 Location: 12.5°N 48.0°W Moving: WNW at 16 mph Min pressure: 1003 mb Max sustained: 50 mph

..BRET EXPERIENCING WIND SHEAR AGAIN.. ..DEPRESSION #4 ENCOUNTERING WIND SHEAR AS WELL..

 

BRET IS GOING THROUGH ITS DAILY DOSE OF MORNING WIND SHEAR.  YOU CAN SEE THE FEATHERING OF THE CLOUDS ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE AND WARMING OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS.  

REGARDLESS OF THIS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL HAVE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM MOVING OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS EVENING A ON FRIDAY.  

STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREADY ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND A PORTION OF FRIDAY.

BRET WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND ENCOUNTER MORE WIND SHEAR THAT SHOULD BRING BRET DOWN TO DEPRESSION THEN AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...BRET NEARING THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

11:00 AM AST Thu Jun 22 Location: 13.8°N 57.7°W Moving: W at 14 mph Min pressure: 999 mb Max sustained: 70 mph

FEATHERING OF THE CLOUDS WIND SHEAR OVER BRET.  WEST SIDE OF THE DEEPEST CLOUDS CUT OFF, FLATEND LIKE A PANCAKE.  BRET MOVING INTO A WALL OF SHEAR.

YOU CAN SEE THE DARKER MAROON COLORS WHICH ARE  THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS FADING TO A LIGHTER COLOR.  THAT IS AN INDICATION THAT SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE THESE CLOUDS IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND CAUSING THE CLOUDS TO WARM.  THAT MEANS BRET IS WEAKENING AT THIS TIME.  

THE OVER ALL STRUCTURE OF BRET ALSO LOOKS DISRUPTED.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

11:00 AM AST Thu Jun 22 Location: 11.3°N 42.9°W Moving: WNW at 15 mph Min pressure: 1007 mb Max sustained: 35 mph

..BRET CONTINUES ON A WESTERLY TRACK LESS ORGANIZED THAN 24 HOURS AGO.. ..WATCH AND WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE ISLANDS..

 

BRET TRACKING WEST TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.  

• A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA  

• TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT BABADOS, DOMINICA AND MARTINIQUE.

• OTHER NEIGHBORING ISLANDS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGESS OF BRET AS OTHER WATCH AND WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BRET TRACKING WESTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN WHERE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.   IN FACT MODELS SHOW BRET WEAKING TO AN OPEN WAVE.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY MORNING.  

AS FOR STORM INVEST 93L THAT WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM TO THE ISLANDS.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211126
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Bret, located several hundred miles east of the Windward 
Islands.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Satellite images indicate that the broad area of low pressure 
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the 
Lesser Antilles has become better organized overnight. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development 
of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form during 
the next couple of days.  This system is expected to move westward 
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical 
Atlantic through the early part of the weekend. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

..BRET GATHERS SOME STRENGTH AS SHEAR RELAXED OVER THE STORM.. ..TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOES..

 

BRET MANAGES TO STRENGTHEN SOME AS THE SHEAR THAT WAS AFFECTING BRET EARLIER RELAXED.  BRET IS STILL MOVING THOUGH DRY AIR SO WILL SEE IF IT HOLDS UP AS IT MOVES TOWARD MORE SHEAR IN THE CARIBBEAN.  

REGARDLESS OF THIS, BRET WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINS TO BARBADOES AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

RTW