| ...LOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE BEGINNING ON FRIDAY... | |||||||
| 5:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 Location: 29.2°N 75.9°W Moving: N at 8 mph Min pressure: 1012 mb Max sustained: 35 mph | |||||||
| ...LOW PRESSURE AREA EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS... | |||||||
| 11:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 Location: 28.7°N 75.9°W Moving: N at 9 mph Min pressure: 1012 mb Max sustained: 35 mph | |||||||
000
ABNT20 KNHC 211356 CCA
TWOAT
Special Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023
Corrrected time in the product
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special outlook issued to raise probabilities and update discussion
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Nigel, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.
Off the Southeastern United States Coast (AL99):
Updated...A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
east of the Florida peninsula continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A non-tropical low pressure
system is expected to form within this area by early Friday, and
there are increasing chances that this system could acquire some
tropical or subtropical characteristics on Friday or early Saturday
while it moves generally northward toward the coast of North
Carolina. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, this
low is likely to bring tropical storm force winds, heavy rain,
coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of the southeast and
mid-Atlantic United States coastline on Friday and into the
weekend. Tropical Storm watches or warnings could be required for
this system as soon as later this morning. Additional information on
this system, including storm and gale warnings, can be found in High
Seas Forecasts and products from your local National Weather Service
office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this weekend or early next week while the system moves
generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown
000
ABNT20 KNHC 201746 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Nigel, located over the central subtropical Atlantic. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is currently located a couple of hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is expected to merge with another disturbance located a few hundred miles to its west in a few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Western Atlantic: A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form within a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the east of the Florida peninsula within the next day or two. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics on Friday while it moves generally northward. Regardless of development, this low is likely to bring gusty winds to gale force, heavy rain, and high surf to portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic United States late this week and into this weekend. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts and products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Pasch
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000 ABNT20 KNHC 191732 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Nigel, located over the central subtropical Atlantic. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by Wednesday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of the wave thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves generally westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Western Atlantic: A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form east of the Florida peninsula late this week. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics this weekend while it moves generally northward. Regardless of subtropical development, this low is likely to bring gusty winds, heavy rain, and high surf conditions to portions of the coastal Carolinas into the coastal Mid-Atlantic states late this week into this weekend. Please see products from your local National Weather Service office for more details. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Reinhart
| ...LEE REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON... | |||||||
| 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 15 Location: 36.0°N 66.9°W Moving: NNE at 18 mph Min pressure: 962 mb Max sustained: 80 mph | |||||||
Storm Investigation 97L has a 90–90% formation chance and will more than likely be the next hurricane in the Atlantic. As it is, this storm system is scheduled to recurve over the North Atlantic and is not a threat to the U.S. mainland.
The other storm investigation behind 97L presently has a 0–20% chance of formation. I will monitor this system since it could track further west and maybe into the eastern Caribbean.
Refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest updates.
RTW
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Lee, located several hundred miles south-southeast of the New England states, and on Hurricane Margot, located over the central Atlantic. 1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97): Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in association with a broad low pressure area located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions remain conducive for additional development, and this system is expected to become a tropical depression within the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. For additional information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. 2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by the middle part of next week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while the system moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Bucci
