..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE SEPT 27, 2023..

 

Philippe remains a weak tropical storm as it continues on a westward track. Remember, as I have mentioned in past storm updates, weaker storm systems are not influenced by cold fronts or troughs to their north. High pressure steers them generally westward. This means that even though Philippe is forecast to weaken, it could bring gusty winds and heavy rains to the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic.

Regardless, interest in the Northern Leeward, Puerto Rico, and Dominican Republic should monitor Philippe advisories from the National Hurricane Center in the coming days.

RTW

...PHILIPPE SLIGHTLY STRONGER... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...

11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 27 Location: 17.5°N 53.7°W Moving: W at 9 mph Min pressure: 998 mb Max sustained: 50 mph

Storm Investigation 91L

..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE SEPT. 26, 2023..

 

...PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE...

11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 26 Location: 17.3°N 50.3°W Moving: W at 14 mph Min pressure: 1003 mb Max sustained: 45 mph

STORM INVESTIGATION 91L

THE CARIBBEAN IS LOOKING TROPICAL CYCLONE-FREE THROUGH OCTOBER 10, 2023, ACCORDING TO GLOBAL TROPICS HAZARDS OUTLOOK FROM THE  

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER.

..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE SEPT. 25, 2023..

 ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Philippe, located over the central tropical Atlantic. 

1. Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized shower activity 
over portions of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  Development, if 
any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur over the next 
day or two while it moves slowly westward.  The disturbance is 
expected to move into unfavorable environmental conditions by the 
middle of the week, ending its chances for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of 
the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form within the next few days as the system moves 
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik

..TRACKING THE TROPICS SEPT. 24, 2023..

 

000

ABNT20 KNHC 242320
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Philippe, located over the central tropical Atlantic. 

Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the 
southeastern Gulf of Mexico in association with a surface trough of 
low pressure and an upper-level trough. Further development, if any, 
is expected to be slow to occur over the next few days while the 
system moves slowly westward.  By the middle of the week, 
upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for 
additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of 
the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a broad area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions 
are forecast to be conducive for additional development, and a 
tropical depression is now likely to form around mid-week as the 
system moves west-northwestward across the central tropical 
Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

..TRACKING THE TROPICS SEPT 24, 2023..

 

Philippe is not a concern to the U.S., and neither is the one behind him. I begin to focus my attention on the southern and northwest Caribbean as we transition into the latter half of the peak of the hurricane season. October development usually occurs in the southern and northwest Caribbean, and looking back in history, Florida has had more storms make landfall in October than any other time of the hurricane season. 

There is a surface trough of low pressure producing strong storms with plenty of lightning between Yucatan and Cuba. I will keep a close eye on it, as we know storms love to form along frontal boundaries and surface troughs. Nothing to be concerned about at this time; just watch and always be storm-ready!

RTW