..TRACKING THE TROPICS OCT. 12, 2023..

...SEAN STRENGTHENS BACK INTO A TROPICAL STORM...

11:00 AM AST Thu Oct 12 Location: 13.1°N 37.2°W Moving: NW at 10 mph Min pressure: 1006 mb Max sustained: 40 mph

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
upgraded Tropical Storm Sean, located over the central tropical 
Atlantic.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity is limited and disorganized this 
afternoon in association with a broad area of low pressure located 
several hundred miles to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands. While 
environmental conditions are currently only marginally favorable for 
slow development over the next couple of days, they are forecast to 
become more favorable by early next week. A tropical depression 
could form by the middle of next week as this system moves generally 
westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Papin

..TRACKING THE TROPICS OCT. 11, 2023..

 

..SEAN CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

11:00 AM AST Wed Oct 11 Location: 10.9°N 34.4°W Moving: WNW at 13 mph Min pressure: 1006 mb Max sustained: 40 mph

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111140
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
upgraded Tropical Storm Sean, located over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles to the south-southeast 
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of showers and 
thunderstorms. This activity is showing some signs of organization 
this morning, and environmental conditions appear conducive for some 
additional development of this system over the next several days 
while the wave moves westward across the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Sean are issued under WMO header 
WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on 
Tropical Storm Sean are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and 
under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Warm front backing north over Florida is enhancing showers and
storms. A disturbance in the Gulf is merging with this front and will bring gusty winds and severe storms to the a portion of Northern and Central Florida.

Latest days 1-2 Severe Storm Outlook for Florida (Slight to marginal risk for severe storms, tornado and damaging winds.

Day 2 also a slight Marginal risk!

Day three a chance for thunderstorms but not severe.

NWS Miami

@NWSMiami

·

4h

There is a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms across South FL today. T-storms will begin in the early afternoon while moving from south to north through the area into the evening hours. The greatest risks will be in Hendry, Glades & Palm Beach Co. near the Lake O region.

Day 1-3 Excessive rainfall outlook.

..TRACKING THE TROPICS OCT 10, 2023..

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest 
of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of 
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive 
for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
during the next couple of days while the system moves 
west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern tropical 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased some, but remain 
disorganized, in association with an area of low pressure over the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. While environmental conditions appear 
only marginally favorable, surface pressures have been falling near 
the system, and it has a short window to develop further over 
the next day or so. However, by Wednesday morning the system is 
forecast to merge with a developing frontal system over the western 
Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary.

Regardless of tropical cyclone development, the system is forecast 
to produce gale-force winds over portions of the northern Gulf of 
Mexico by Wednesday, and potentially heavy rainfall along the Gulf 
Coast by the latter portion of this week. For more information, see 
products from your local National Weather Service office, and high 
seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Papin