..TRACKING THE TROPICS OCT 17, 2023..

 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171149
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure located over the central tropical 
Atlantic about 1100 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to 
produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.   
Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for 
gradual development, and a tropical depression will likely form 
during the next 2-3 days while the system moves westward to 
west-northwestward across the central and western tropical Atlantic. 
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of 
this system. Additional information on this system, including gale 
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the 
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Blake

..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE OCT 16, 2023..

 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161148
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure located over the central tropical 
Atlantic about midway between the Windward Islands and western 
Africa is producing disorganized shower activity.  The low-level 
circulation has become better defined since yesterday and, since 
environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for 
further development, a tropical depression is still likely to form 
within a few days.  This system is forecast to move westward or 
west-northwestward across the central and western tropical Atlantic 
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

..TRACKING THE TROPICS OCT 14, 2023..

 

Storm Invest 94L is tracking westward. The model suggests a westward track with a turn northwest as another cold front moves off shore along the east coast. The question is: will 94L move over the lesser Antilles or will it turn northwest before it reaches the northern Leeward? As it is now, both the EURO and the GFS suggest a turn northwest will occur. For now, the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of 94L into next week. 94L is not a threat to the U.S. mainland.

RTW

..MONITORING 94L OCT. 13, 2023..

 

...SEAN WEAKENING...

11:00 AM AST Fri Oct 13 Location: 14.6°N 41.7°W Moving: WNW at 12 mph Min pressure: 1006 mb Max sustained: 40 mph

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131121
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Sean, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a few 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Only gradual development of 
this disturbance is expected during the next couple of days. 
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for 
development by the end of the weekend while the disturbance begins 
to move westward across the central tropical Atlantic. Additional 
development is expected after that, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form during the early to middle portion of next week as 
the system moves steadily westward across the central and western 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky