..NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT AT THIS TIME.. ..HAPPY NOVEMBER 1 2023..

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean 
Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure.  Environmental 
conditions could become a little more conducive for development in a 
day or two, and a tropical depression could form when the system 
moves over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the latter part of 
this week.  Regardless of development, this system has the potential 
to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America late this 
week and into the weekend. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Brown

..97L 0200 PM EDT UPDATE LEVEL LOWERED FROM HIGH 70% IN 7 DAYS TO MED 60%..

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with a trough of low 
pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea has diminished and not 
become any better organized this afternoon. Although environmental 
conditions appear marginally conducive for further development 
during the next several days while the system moves westward over 
the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea, a tropical depression 
could form by the latter part of this week. Regardless of 
development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains 
over portions of Central America towards the end of the week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Kelly

..MONITORING STORM INVESTIGATION 97L DEVELOPING IN THE EAST CARIBBEAN OCT 31, 2023..

Well, I have my eyes on 97L and the cold fronts and troughs, plus the building highs to the north of this developing storm system. Lots can happen if this system doesn't move much faster. So I monitor and will report daily on its progress, or sooner if models begin to trend differently.

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL97):
A trough of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing 
a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for further development during the next several 
days while the system moves westward over the central and 
southwestern Caribbean Sea, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form by the latter part of this week. Regardless of development, 
this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions 
of Central America towards the end of the week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Kelly

..TRACKING THE TROPICS OCT 30 2023..

 

ACCORDING TO THE FORECAST, UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT PUSHS EAST THIS WEEK, SO 96L DOES NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE. IT WILL BE MONITORED, BUT FAR MODELS SUGGEST NOTHING MUCH OUT OF THIS STORM INVESTIGATION.

AS FOR INVESTMENT IN THE CARIBBEAN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WATERS, PUSHING THIS SYSTEM TOWARD THE WEST. I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND REPORT DAILY ON THIS SYSTEM.

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL96):
An area of low pressure with associated disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms is located a couple of hundred miles east of the 
northwestern Bahamas.  This system is moving into an area of strong 
upper-level winds and dry air, and the chances of it becoming a 
short-lived tropical storm appear to be decreasing.  The low is 
expected to move slowly west-northwestward today and then turn 
northward and northeastward on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Additional 
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in 
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A trough of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea is 
associated with disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  This system 
is expected to move westward during the next several days, and 
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development.  
A tropical depression could form late this week when the system 
reaches the central or southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Bucci

UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WHERE THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED!

..STORM INVESTIGATIONS OCT 28, 2023..

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Tammy, located a few hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda.

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL96):
A small area of low pressure has formed about 120 miles northeast 
of the coast of the Dominican Republic with disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity.  Some development of this system is possible 
during the next couple of days while it moves northwestward, east 
of the Bahamas.  Upper-level winds are forecast to become too 
strong for further development by late Monday while the system 
turns northward east of the northwestern Bahamas. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Western Caribbean Sea:
An area of disturbed weather continues over the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea in associated with a broad area of low pressure.  
Further development of this system appears unlikely while it drifts 
northward or north-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Blake

..TROPICAL OUTLOOK FRIDAT OCTOBER 27, 2023..

 

NHC continues to monitor Tammy's low which is stuck between high pressure with nowhere to go for now.  They are also monitoring the Caribbean for possible low pressure into next week.  For now all is looking good.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271147
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Atlantic (Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy):
A strong extratropical cyclone (formerly Tammy) associated with an 
occluded front is located a few hundred miles east of Bermuda.  
This low is forecast to become separated from the front soon, and 
conditions appear favorable for the system to redevelop into a 
tropical storm later today or Saturday.  Regardless of tropical 
redevelopment, the system is likely to bring gusty winds to Bermuda 
during the next day or so, and a gale warning is in effect for 
the island.  Interests on Bermuda should monitor the progress of 
this system.  For additional information, including storm and gale 
warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service and products from the Bermuda Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days.  Environmental 
conditions could support some slow development of this system early 
next week while it moves generally northward. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Pasch

..NHC IS NOW MONITORING THE CARIBBEAN FOR DEVELOPMENT AS WELL..

 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 262336
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Atlantic (Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy):
A strong extratropical cyclone (formerly Tammy) associated with an 
occluded front is located a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. This 
system is forecast to become separated from the front during the 
next day or so, and environmental conditions are forecast to become 
more conducive for the low to regain tropical characteristics while 
it meanders over the northwestern Atlantic to the east of Bermuda 
through Saturday. Regardless of tropical redevelopment, the system 
is likely to bring gusty winds and heavy rainfall to Bermuda during 
the next couple of days. Interests on Bermuda should monitor the 
progress of this system. For additional information, including storm 
and gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service and products from the Bermuda Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Environmental 
conditions could support some slow development of this system early 
next week while it moves generally northward over western or central 
portions of the basin. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart