..STORM INVESTIGATIONS AND HEAVY RAIN EVENT POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA..

 

NOAA NWS Weather Prediction Center

2h  · 

Be sure to remain weather aware across South Florida today and tonight. Very heavy rainfall could lead to highly impactful urban flash flooding.

A Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect. #flwx

.SKYWARN STORM SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail, and
flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

• Report any damage related to high winds
• Report any hail with strong thunderstorms
• Report flooding to the N.W.S. office in Miami Florida

Remember safety always comes first!

RTW

NWS Melbourne

6h

Wed Nov 15 | Windy conditions and northward moving showers today. Advisories continue for winds, dangerous seas, surf, and rip currents. Water runup and minor beach erosion possible surrounding high tide near mid morning. Heavy rain potential for tonight, especially along coast.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea is associated with a trough of low 
pressure. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for 
development of this system, and a tropical depression could still 
form by the weekend while the system begins moving northeastward 
across the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea. 
Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the 
southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should 
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this 
system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of the 
Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles through 
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Offshore Southeast Coast of United States:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to develop near 
southern Florida along a surface trough over the next day or so. 
This system is then forecast to move northeastward near the Bahamas 
and offshore of the east coast of the U.S. late this week and over 
the weekend. Although development into a tropical cyclone appears 
unlikely, this system is expected to produce gusty winds and heavy 
rains across portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the 
Bahamas during the next couple of days.  For more information on 
this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued 
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Papin

National Weather Service Radar Miami

..THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCREASE THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK TO MODERATE RICK FOR WEDNESDAY..

 

PLEASE TAKE AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MODERATE RISK SERIOUSLY!  

REMEMBER IF LAKES AND CANALS OVERFLOW ON TO THE ROADWAY THEY BECOME OBSCURED AND YOU WON'T KNOW THESE WATER WAVES ARE THERE.  

WE HAVE SEEN IN PAST RAIN EVENTS CAR IN A SHOPPING MALLS WHERE THERE WAS A RUN OFF LAKE RISE UP AT ROAD LEVEL COVERING THE LAKE AND DRIVERS NOT KNOWING HAVE ENDED UP DRIVING INTO THE LAKE.  

SO IF THE ROADWAY IS FLOODED AND YOU ARE NOT SURE OF THE DEPTH, "TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN"!

RTW

Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Outlook	Population Impacted	Area (Sq Mi) Impacted
Moderate (At Least 40%)	5,037,720	2,485
Slight (At Least 15%)	6,208,060	7,569
Marginal (At Least 5%)	8,137,070	17,241

FROM BOCA RATON SOUTH INTO FLORIDA CITY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE!

RAINFALL ACCUMULATION FROM 07.00-11.00 INCHES IN SOME AREAS.

..LOW ATTACHED TO AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND A DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST, WILL BRING FLOODING RAINS TO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA..

 

Moisture from a gale center low pressure associated with an occluded front in the Gulf of Mexico will merge with a low that will develop off the southeast coast of Florida. Moisture from this low, which will intensify as it tracks north-northeast, will produce the potential for heavy rainfall on the southeast coast of Florida and a portion inland over the metro areas.  You can expect 02.00" to 05.00" with 7 inches for those flood prone areas.  

A flood watch is in effect for a portion of the eastern Florida.

The Weather Prediction Center has a marginal and a slight risk for drenching showers and thunderstorms that could produce localized flooding in those flood-prone areas. Thursday afternoon into Friday, the heavy rains track northeast along the Florida coast as the low tracks north-northeast. On Saturday and Sunday, it looks good for most of Florida.

The Storm Prediction Center calls for general thunderstorms but not severe ones. However, there could be lightning and gusty winds with the stronger cells. I will monitor SPC for any changes to their outlook and will post them here if necessary.

RTW

Excessive Rainfall outlook Marginal Today and Marginal-Slight Risk Wed -Thu!

2-5 inches and up to 7 inches in flood prone areas

Day 2 Wednesday 15, 2023 Severe Storm Outlook (General Thunderstorms)

Day 3 Severe Storm Outlook Thursday (General Thunderstorms)

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea is associated with a broad trough of low 
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form during the latter part of the week while moving northeastward 
across the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea.  
Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the 
southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should 
monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of development, 
this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions 
of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles 
through the end of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Berg

NWS Miami

@NWSMiami

·

2hours ago

Good morning! The main show in terms of heavy rainfall will be tomorrow, but that doesn't mean today will be dry. In fact heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of the east coast metro this afternoon and this could result in localized flooding in prone urban areas.

A Flood Watch is in effect from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning for coastal/metro Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties.

..HEAVY RAINS AND STORMS WED-FRIDAY.. ..THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING..

 

A low associated with an occluded cold front is tracking toward Florida and will bring in an abundance of moisture from the Gulf and the Atlantic.  Forecast rainfall rates are between 2-4 inches and could be higher with storm cells that train over the same areas for long periods of time.  This would be a potential for flooding if that occurs.

Some of these storms could be strong to maybe severe at times.  High pressure and low pressure will make for a strong pressure gradient between the two and this will produce strong gusty winds.  Seas will be rough along the coastal areas.  Stay tuned for further updates!

RTW

NWS Miami

@NWSMiami

·

5h

Heavy rainfall is possible for the eastern areas of South Florida middle of this week. Rainfall amounts between 2 to 4 inches are possible over this area with isolated amounts up to 8 inches with any training showers and thunderstorms.

GFS Model Rain Accumulation next 3 days

ICON Model Rain Accumulation next 3 days

EURO Model Rain Accumulation next 3 days

Days 1-3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook

EURO Wind gust model

These are future reflectivity radar showing rainfall moving in from Gulf and Atlantic.