Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW

Friday, December 15, 2023

..DAY 2-3 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK..

AS THIS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE SATURDAY AND OVER NIGHT SUNDAY MORNING, THE WIND GUST WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AS A BROKEN SQUALL LINE MOVES OVER THE STATE.

AS THIS BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES OVER FLORIDA, SOME OF THESE ISOLATED CELLS COULD BE IN THE STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUST.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE SEVERE CELLS COULD SPIN UP AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. HEAVEY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN THOSE STRONGER CELLS AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE WEST FLORIDA COAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE STATE OF FLORIDA, EFFECTIVE 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

ROUGH SURF, RIP CURRENT WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE; COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES, WIND ADVISORY, AND GALE WARNINGS OFF SHORE ARE ALSO IN PLACE.

SEE BELOW DAY 2 NWS MIAMI HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND STORM SPOTTER MESSAGE!

RTW

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI

..DAYS TWO Saturday-Sunday.

Thunderstorms and the potential for heavy rain are possible on
Saturday into early Sunday. Heavy rain may lead to localized
flooding. A few strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday
with damaging wind gusts. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as
well, especially for areas near Lake Okeechobee.

Dangerous marine conditions are anticipated through the weekend due
to strong winds and high seas.

Dangerous beach conditions are anticipated through the weekend along
the Atlantic coast with high rip current risks and large breaking
waves in the surf zone. The dangerous beach conditions may extend to
the Gulf coast late this weekend.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are possible through Saturday with the
strongest wind gusts occurring near the immediate east coast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail, and
flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

AREAS AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS

SLIGHT	31,681	12,516,942	Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...
MARGINAL	7,194	2,799,906	Orlando, FL...Spring Hill, FL...Deltona, FL...Daytona Beach, FL...Port Orange, FL...

DAY 2 TORNADO PROBABILITY

AREAS AT RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADO

5 %	31,680	12,521,747	Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...
2 %	7,002	2,755,072	Orlando, FL...Spring Hill, FL...Deltona, FL...Daytona Beach, FL...Port Orange, FL...

DAY 2 DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY

AREAS AT RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADO

15 %	31,720	12,594,743	Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...
5 %	6,970	2,697,897	Orlando, FL...Spring Hill, FL...Deltona, FL...Daytona Beach, FL...Port Orange, FL...

DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

AREAS AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS

MARGINAL

33,834

5,297,955

Savannah, GA...Charleston, SC...Wilmington, NC...Palm Bay, FL...North Charleston, SC...

AREAS AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORM PROBABILITY

5 %

33,880

5,331,642

Savannah, GA...Charleston, SC...Wilmington, NC...Palm Bay, FL...North Charleston, SC...

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

Wednesday, December 13, 2023

..FLOOD WATCH AND WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT..

Sorry this is not much of an update but I been morning our French Bull dog we had for 13-1/2 years. I had to put her to sleep last night because of Seizures. She was a loving pet we are missing her dearly!

Here are some models showing the low tracking northeast.

Tuesday, December 12, 2023

..STILL MONITORING THE DEVLOPMNT OF A LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE HEAVY RAINPOTENTIAL IN THE COMING DAYS..

Low pressure is developing in the Northwest Caribbean, and high pressure is producing a strong pressure gradient with strong gusty winds in the coming days. A front that will back up over Florida and the low will also enhance the rain and storm chances, increasing the probability of floods in those flood-prone areas. You should monitor the Weather Prediction Center for excessive rainfall forecasts in the coming days.

Winds could gust up to 40 mph and higher off shore by this weekend. You should consider securing loose items around your home before this weekend.

RTW

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING IN EFFECT

000
FZNT02 KNHC 121419
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC TUE DEC 12 2023

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC TUE DEC 12.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED DEC 13.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU DEC 14.

.WARNINGS.

...ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...
.ATLC WITHIN 31N35W TO 31N58W TO 24N67W TO 17N58W TO 19N35W TO
31N35W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT...HIGHEST NEAR
25N48W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 29N38W TO 17N49W. WITHIN 28N40W TO
28N41W TO 27N43W TO 26N43W TO 26N41W TO 27N39W TO 28N40W NE TO E
WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 31N35W TO 
31N56W TO 23N75W TO 15N58W TO 15N42W TO 31N35W NE TO E WINDS 20 
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT...HIGHEST ALONG LINE FROM 30N39W TO
20N62W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 25N44W 1012 MB. WITHIN 27N46W TO
26N48W TO 24N48W TO 24N47W TO 25N46W TO 27N46W WINDS 25 TO 35 
KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 31N35W TO 31N48W TO 
27N53W TO 23N52W TO 20N46W TO 21N40W TO 31N35W WINDS 20 TO 30 
KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 31N35W TO 31N54W TO 
26N71W TO 10N56W TO 23N36W TO 31N35W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 11 FT IN N TO NE SWELL.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC WITHIN 31N69W TO 31N76W TO 27N76W TO 27N74W TO 31N69W NE
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N68W TO 31N76W TO 29N80W TO 26N80W TO
26N78W TO 28N72W TO 31N68W NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N65W TO 31N81W TO 26N80W TO 26N75W TO
31N65W NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

.CARIBBEAN WITHIN 20N83W TO 21N84W TO 21N87W TO 19N88W TO 18N85W
TO 19N83W TO 20N83W...INCLUDING IN YUCATAN CHANNEL... NE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.CARIBBEAN WITHIN 16N64W TO 18N72W TO 16N81W TO 11N82W TO 10N76W
TO 14N66W TO 16N64W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT...HIGHEST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 18N65W TO 18N74W TO 15N82W TO 11N82W TO
09N76W TO 13N65W TO 18N65W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
11 FT. WITHIN 20N73W TO 20N75W TO 19N77W TO 18N77W TO 18N75W TO 
19N74W TO 20N73W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 14N74W TO 16N71W TO 18N72W TO 13N78W TO
10N78W TO 10N76W TO 14N74W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N65W TO 18N75W TO 15N81W TO 10N81W TO 
09N76W TO 13N67W TO 17N65W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT
IN E SWELL.

.GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 26N85W TO 26N86W TO 25N88W TO 23N88W TO
22N86W TO 23N84W TO 26N85W...INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... NE
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 26N82W TO 28N84W TO 26N88W TO 21N87W TO
21N85W TO 23N82W TO 26N82W...INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IN
YUCATAN CHANNEL... NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30N84W TO 30N89W TO 28N96W TO 25N95W TO
22N87W TO 25N82W TO 30N84W...INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IN
YUCATAN CHANNEL... NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

3 day excessive rainfall outlook at this time is Marginal

1-3 day rainfall accumulation

Monday, December 11, 2023

..WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WHOLE WEEK AND MONITORING POSSIBLE NON-TROPICAL LOW BY SUNDAY MONDAY NEXT WEEK..

Forecast models are calling for gusty winds all this week and possible low tracking east or northeast across Florida from the Gulf. I am usually skeptical about these lows in the winter coming out of the Gulf, but five models are all saying the same. Being that we are in an EL Niño, these lows are now unusual and could become a nor'easter as well.

Mariners beware that small craft warnings may be required sometime this week as high pressure and low pressure produce a strong pressure gradient this week. We could also see the National Weather Service issuing an inland wind advisory in the coming days.

The model is also showing strong thunderstorms as this low crosses Florida. However, as we all know, the weather is constantly changing, and so is the forecast. I will monitor the forecast in the coming days and continue to report here.

RTW

Here is the EURO, GFS, CMC, NOGAPS, and the ICON model forecast from this morning.

Thursday, December 7, 2023

..DAY 2-3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK PER STORM PREDICTION CENTER..

DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK AREA

MARGINAL

61,521

3,400,902

Little Rock, AR...Fort Smith, AR...Longview, TX...Fayetteville, AR...North Little Rock, AR...

DAY 2 HAIL OUTLOOK

DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK AREAS ON SATURDAY

SLIGHT	109,436	11,053,446	Houston, TX...Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...
MARGINAL	134,626	12,409,377	New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...

DAY 3 SEVERE STORM PROBABILITY

PROBABILITIC AREA AT RISK

15 %	109,147	11,047,809	Houston, TX...Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...
5 %	135,042	12,421,566	New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...

ECMWF (EURO) 00Z 500MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT

LOOKING AT FLORIDA'S CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE FRONT TRACKS OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY EVENING. SEEMS LIKE SOME SHOWERS MAYBE AN ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY EVENING, BUT SO FAR THE EURO MODEL DOES NOT SUGGEST ANYTHING SEVERE, HOWEVER, IT DOES SHOW STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GULF AND THE ATLANTIC AS THIS SYSTEM TRACK SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. AND BEFORE I FORGET WINDS, I WILL PICK UP ON MONDAY AND STRONGER OFF SHORE. MONDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL COOLER DUE TO THE BREEZY CONDITIONS.

RTW

EURO THUNDRSTORM FORECAST