..DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.. ..JANUARY 12, 2024..

 

MAKE SURE TO MONITOR THE STORM PREDICITION CENTER SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK AS THE OUTLOOK MAY CHANGE DURING THE NEXT UPDATES.

RTW

TODAYS SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK

RISK AREAS!

ENHANCED	32,255	1,538,530	Greenville, MS...Tupelo, MS...Florence, AL...Columbus, MS...Starkville, MS...
SLIGHT	208,107	27,436,536	Memphis, TN...Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...Birmingham, AL...
MARGINAL	166,115	28,324,897	Jacksonville, FL...Nashville, TN...New Orleans, LA...Virginia Beach, VA...Tampa, FL...

HAIL PROBABILITY!

RISK AREAS!

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

5 %

181,873

24,494,302

Memphis, TN...Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...Birmingham, AL...

TORNADO PROBABILITY

RISK AREAS!

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

5 %	191,504	19,145,690	Memphis, TN...Raleigh, NC...Birmingham, AL...Durham, NC...Montgomery, AL...
2 %	106,389	18,253,597	Charlotte, NC...New Orleans, LA...Atlanta, GA...Greensboro, NC...Baton Rouge, LA...

DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY

RISK AREAS!

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

SIG SEVERE	33,217	1,572,974	Greenville, MS...Tupelo, MS...Florence, AL...Columbus, MS...Starkville, MS...
30 %	32,362	1,538,661	Greenville, MS...Tupelo, MS...Florence, AL...Columbus, MS...Starkville, MS...
15 %	208,021	27,367,145	Memphis, TN...Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...Birmingham, AL...
5 %	166,375	28,442,858	Jacksonville, FL...Nashville, TN...New Orleans, LA...Virginia Beach, VA...Tampa, FL...

..BUSY WEATHER DAY TOMORROW FOR THE SOUTHEAST.. ..STAY TUNED TO UPDATES FROM THE STORM PREDICITION CENTER..

 

DAY 2 ENHANCED, SLIGHT, TO A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS ALABAMA, GEORGIA, SOUTH CAROLINA, NORTH CAROLINA, TENNESSEE, LOUISIANA, KENTUCKY AND PORTION OF VIRGINIA.  PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU HAVE YOUR CELL PHONES CHARGED WITH ALERT MODE TURNED ON OR IF YOU HAVE A NOAA WEATHER RADIO MAKE SURE IT IS ON ALERT TONE MODE.  STAY SAFE!

RTW

SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY

RISK AREAS!

ENHANCED	78,770	8,486,620	Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Columbia, SC...Macon, GA...Albany, GA...
SLIGHT	156,951	28,837,679	Jacksonville, FL...Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...Tampa, FL...
MARGINAL	165,607	20,759,911	Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...New Orleans, LA...Virginia Beach, VA...Louisville, KY...

DAMAGING HAIL PROBABILITY

RISK AREAS!

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

15 %	161,621	17,510,035	Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...
5 %	81,702	13,103,030	Jacksonville, FL...Charlotte, NC...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...

TORNADO PROBABILITY

RISK AREAS!

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

SIG SEVERE	74,263	7,249,792	Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Columbia, SC...Macon, GA...Albany, GA...
10 %	78,885	8,305,871	Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Columbia, SC...Macon, GA...Albany, GA...
5 %	155,558	28,706,661	Jacksonville, FL...Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...Tampa, FL...
2 %	66,057	6,610,419	New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Winston-Salem, NC...Metairie, LA...Palm Bay, FL...

DAMAGING WND PROBABILITY

RISK AREAS!

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

SIG SEVERE	40,103	10,951,690	Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...
30 %	42,110	6,066,940	Columbus, GA...Columbia, SC...Macon, GA...Warner Robins, GA...Auburn, AL...
15 %	191,235	30,794,263	Jacksonville, FL...Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...Tampa, FL...
5 %	165,707	20,984,587	Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...New Orleans, LA...Virginia Beach, VA...Louisville, KY...

..DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK..

 

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BARRELING THROUGH TO THE EAST WILL BRING SLIGHT/ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALABAMA, GEORGIA SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY.  VISIT THE STORM PREDICITION CENTER FOR UPDATES.

RTW

DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

RISK AREAS:

ENHANCED	83,499	9,110,654	Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Fayetteville, NC...Columbia, SC...Macon, GA...
SLIGHT	129,530	19,099,314	Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Birmingham, AL...
MARGINAL	194,609	30,409,694	Jacksonville, FL...Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...New Orleans, LA...Virginia Beach, VA...

DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY

RISK AREAS:

Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point. 

SIG SEVERE	127,693	18,615,866	Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...Birmingham, AL...Durham, NC...
30 %	82,295	8,717,672	Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Fayetteville, NC...Columbia, SC...Macon, GA...
15 %	129,909	19,298,298	Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Birmingham, AL...
5 %	193,762	30,415,688	Jacksonville, FL...Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...New Orleans, LA...Virginia Beach, VA...

..SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 1 MONDAY JAN 8, 2024..

 

A potent winter weather system is tracking east and is setting up a volatile environment for severe storms, strong damaging winds, strong tornadoes, and damaging hail. The Storm Prediction Center is publishing their outlook information, so check their website this afternoon for another update.

RTW

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK

RISK AREAS FOR SEVERE STORM:

ENHANCED	59,502	9,738,868	Houston, TX...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Pasadena, TX...
SLIGHT	54,208	4,173,382	College Station, TX...Sugar Land, TX...Missouri City, TX...Bryan, TX...Dothan, AL...
MARGINAL	123,079	14,211,145	Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...

DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY

RISK AREAS IN THE BLACK HATCHED LINES 

HAS A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR TORNADOES.

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

SIG SEVERE	53,449	7,243,326	Houston, TX...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Pasadena, TX...
10 %	56,780	9,566,913	Houston, TX...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Pasadena, TX...
5 %	36,631	3,510,259	College Station, TX...Sugar Land, TX...Missouri City, TX...Bryan, TX...Panama City, FL...
2 %	20,847	878,068	Dothan, AL...Alexandria, LA...Lufkin, TX...Nacogdoches, TX...Enterprise, AL...

DAY 1 DAMAGING HAIL PROBABILITY 

RISK AREAS FOR DAMAGING HAIL:

15 %	69,382	11,087,093	Houston, TX...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Pasadena, TX...Metairie, LA...
5 %	83,267	5,162,547	Shreveport, LA...Mobile, AL...Jackson, MS...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...

DAY 1 DAMAGING WINDS PROBABILITY 

RISK AREAS IN THE BLACK HATCHED LINES 

HAS A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

SIG SEVERE	46,131	5,213,765	New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Lafayette, LA...
30 %	45,984	5,207,156	New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Lafayette, LA...
15 %	64,024	8,428,548	Houston, TX...Pasadena, TX...Beaumont, TX...Sugar Land, TX...The Woodlands, TX...
5 %	126,907	14,488,438	Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...

DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RINFALL OUTLOOK

..SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK DAYS 1 AND 2..

 SEVERE STORM PROBABILITY

SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK DAY 1

SEVERE STORM RISK AREAS

MARGINAL

40,097

4,360,329

New Orleans, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...Kenner, LA...

DAY 1 TORNADO OUTLOOK

 TORNADO RISK AREAS

2 %

40,308

4,376,017

New Orleans, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...Kenner, LA...

DAY 1 DAMAGING WIND OUTLOOK

DAMAGING WIND RISK AREA

40,161

4,368,727

New Orleans, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...Kenner, LA...

DAY 2 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK

SEVERE STORM RISK AREAS

MARGINAL

35,680

13,491,175

Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...

DAY 2 TORNADO OUTLOOK

TORNADO RISK AREA

2 %

35,316

13,334,902

Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...

DAY 2 DAMAGING WIND OUTLOOK

DAMAGING WIND RISK AREAS

5 %

35,482

13,469,876

Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Cape Coral, FL...Port St. Lucie, FL...

..MAY 2024 BRING YOU JOY HEALTH AND PROSPERITY..

 

HAPPY NEW YEAR FROM RTW AND FAMILY!

..SEVERE STORM THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER NIGHT STAY ALERT!..

 

Mesoscale Discussion 2331
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0759 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2023

   Areas affected...portions of the southern and central Florida
   Peninsula and Keys

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 170159Z - 170430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms may move ashore
   from the Gulf of Mexico over the next several hours. Isolated
   tornadoes and damaging gusts are the main threats. The need for a
   Tornado Watch issuance depends on how much instability can precede
   the approaching line of thunderstorms.

   DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to deepen across the eastern
   Gulf of Mexico and approach the FL Peninsula as an upper-level
   trough continues to amplify over the MS Valley. A confluence band
   preceding the aforementioned surface low is comprised of convection
   that has percolated in intensity over the last few hours, and is
   poised to move ashore sometime before Midnight EST. Widespread rain
   and convection have been overspreading the Peninsula for much of the
   day, with 00Z soundings over TBW and MFL depicting low/mid-level
   lapse rates barely exceeding 5 C/km. Despite low 70s F dewpoints,
   buoyancy has been meager so far, though gradual increases in
   instability are possible across southern FL tonight. 

   Shear profiles are impressive ahead of the rapidly deepening surface
   low, with the same aforementioned observed soundings showing very
   large, curved hodographs in the 0-3 km layer. As such, it is not out
   of the question for a few damaging gusts or tornadoes to occur if a
   persistent updraft can develop and ingest any available
   surface-based, unstable parcels. As such, conditions are being
   monitored for the need of a Tornado Watch issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 12/17/2023