A Slight risk severe weather today for portion of the southeast. Visit the Storm Prediction Center for the latest updates.
Excessive rainfall outlook for today
Monday, February 12, 2024
Monday, February 5, 2024
..A SECONDARY FRONT MOVING OVER FLORIDA TONIGHT WILL USHER IN STRONG WIND GUST TUESDAY..
A SECONDARY FRONT WEST OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA OVER NIGHT AND HELP TO USHER IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER A PORTION OF FLORIDA AND OFF SHORE THE EAST COAST. ROUGH SEAS SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE OUT OF HARBOR.
THERE IS A WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST AND A PORTION OF INLAND BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE. LOOSE ITEMS OR OBJECTS IN YOUR YARD COULD GET TOSSED AROUND WITH THE STRONGER WIND GUST. TAKE PRECAUTIONS AND SECURE LOOSE ITEMS IN YOUR YARDS.
RTW
THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS AND STORM OFF SHORE OVER THE GULF THAT WILL MOVE INLAND LATER THIS EVENING UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE STATE.
Saturday, February 3, 2024
..SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY INCREASES TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA..
Well the Storm Prediction Center has up there Marginal risk to a Slight risk for South Florida. This means there is a chance for Strong to Severe storms, gusty winds, and lightning on Sunday with the chance for isolated tornadoes. Stay tuned for the latest on this storm system.
RTW,
| SLIGHT | 7,721 | 3,544,400 | Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...Hollywood, FL... |
| MARGINAL | 49,910 | 16,649,326 | San Jose, CA...Jacksonville, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL... |
TORNADO OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
| 5 % | 7,525 | 3,427,206 | Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...Hollywood, FL... |
| 2 % | 47,629 | 16,154,760 | Jacksonville, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Salinas, CA... |
DAMGING WIND OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
| 5 % | 57,209 | 20,040,557 | San Jose, CA...Jacksonville, FL...Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL... |
HAIL OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
| 5 % | 24,819 | 9,012,929 | Jacksonville, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Gainesville, FL... |
Friday, February 2, 2024
..MONITORING THIS WEEKENDS STORM SYSTEM..
LOOKS LIKE NOW WE HAVE A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG STORMS FOR A PORTION OF FLORIDA. THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
THERE ARE OTHER AREAS WITH HIGHER RISK MAKE SURE TO MONITOR THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND WEATHER PREDICITION CENTER FOR THERE LATEST UPDATES.
RTW
DAY 1 -3 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK
| SLIGHT | 67,959 | 5,130,885 | San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Abilene, TX...Killeen, TX...Wichita Falls, TX... |
| MARGINAL | 104,662 | 11,153,780 | Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Plano, TX... |
DAY 1 HAIL PROBABILITY
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
| SIG SEVERE | 13,402 | 268,269 | Del Rio, TX...Eagle Pass, TX...Uvalde, TX...Hondo, TX... |
| 15 % | 68,343 | 5,150,200 | San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Abilene, TX...Killeen, TX...Wichita Falls, TX... |
| 5 % | 104,654 | 11,147,233 | Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Plano, TX... |
DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
| 2 % | 133,019 | 15,547,053 | San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX... |
DAY 1 DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
| 5 % | 172,704 | 16,274,935 | San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX... |
DAY 2 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK
| MARGINAL | 33,608 | 6,931,839 | Houston, TX...Pasadena, TX...Beaumont, TX...Sugar Land, TX...The Woodlands, TX... |
DAY 2 TORNADO PROBABILITY
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
| 2 % | 15,097 | 5,837,338 | Houston, TX...Pasadena, TX...Sugar Land, TX...Missouri City, TX...Baytown, TX.. |
DAY 2 DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
| 5 % | 33,697 | 6,942,549 | Houston, TX...Pasadena, TX...Beaumont, TX...Sugar Land, TX...The Woodlands, TX... |
DAY 3 SUNDAY SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK
| MARGINAL | 27,217 | 10,977,190 | Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL... |
DAY 3 PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
| 5 % | 27,217 | 10,977,190 | Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL... |
DAYS 1- 5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
Thursday, February 1, 2024
..FLORIDA WINTER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND TURNING COLD AGAIN..
A strong low along the California coast is producing an atmospheric river of moisture over a portion of the coast. This will enhance the potential for excessive rainfall and flash flooding. This system will then track east, affecting Texas, Louisiana, and a portion of Mississippi on Friday and Saturday, then east toward Florida.
There is a slight risk—at least a 15% chance for excessive rainfall—for a portion of southern Arkansas, Louisiana, and southern Mississippi.
So far, I see no chances for severe weather with this next front. Most of the models show the line breaking up before approaching Florida. However, there is at least a 5% marginal risk chance for excessive rainfall in the following states: a portion of Mississippi, all of Alabama, GA, a portion of South Carolina, and all of Florida. See maps below from (Weather Prediction Center).
RTW
Severe Weather Outlook Day 1-3
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