Four tropical waves are being monitored, but upper-level winds remain unfavorable over the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico at this time.
RTW
000 ABNT20 KNHC 291713 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Berg
Spanish version
308 ACCA62 KNHC 291714 TWOSAT Perspectiva de Tiempo Tropical Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL 200 PM EDT miércoles 29 de mayo de 2024 Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar del Caribe y el Golfo de México: No se espera la formación de ciclones tropicales durante los próximos 7 días. $$ Pronosticador Berg *** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es siempre la versión autorizada. ***
000
AXNT20 KNHC 291711 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed May 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1655 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced in the eastern Atlantic along 17W, south of 15N based on satellite imagery and wave diagnostic guidance. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 12N and east of 23W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 34W, south of 11N, moving westward at 15-20 knots. A few showers are noted near the wave axis. Another tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 58W, south of 13N, moving westward at 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 12N and between 54W and 62W. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean along 82W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring in the SW Caribbean, south of 13W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 08N19W. The ITCZ extends from 08N19W to 04N33W and then from 04N35W to 05N53W. Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on the convection near the monsoon trough and ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A few showers are noted on satellite imagery in the western Gulf of Mexico, mainly off Veracruz and Tamaulipas. The strong convection previously in the NW Gulf has mostly dissipated. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of a subtropical ridge positioned a few hundred miles SE of Newfoundland. The weak pressure gradient sustains moderate to locally fresh SE winds between 90W and 95W. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico and Central America persist across most of the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Observation sites along the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf continue to report visibilities at 3 nm of less. For the forecast, weak surface ridging will continue to dominate across the Gulf through Sun. As a result, winds will pulse moderate to fresh during the evenings through the weekend. A weak cold front moving across the far NE Gulf will continue to support gentle W to NW winds over that region this morning. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse near the N and W portions of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoons and at night through the weekend. Haze west of 89W due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days, impacting visibility at times. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical wave in the western Caribbean. An upper level trough extending into the NW Caribbean Sea continues to push tropical moisture northward, and along with the tropical wave passage, results in scattered showers over portions of the NW and central Caribbean, affecting eastern Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola. The environment will remain conducive for showers and isolated thunderstorms to affect eastern Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola during the next several days, especially in the evening and night hours. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds are possible, especially in mountainous areas, leading to flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather office for more specific information. The pressure gradient between a 1029 mb high pressure system SE of Newfoundland and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 3-6 ft are occurring in the north-central and eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to light and slight seas are found elsewhere. Hazy conditions continue to affect the Gulf of Honduras due to agricultural fires in Central America. Visibilities may decrease below 3 nm at times, especially along the northern coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands. For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between high pressure and associated ridging north of the area and low pressure along near Colombia will force fresh to locally strong trades over the S central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through today. Winds will become moderate to fresh from Thu through the weekend. A tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the SW Caribbean. The wave is forecast to move across Central America into the E Pacific waters tonight into Thu. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central America is causing reduced visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the three tropical waves in the central and eastern Atlantic. A late-season cold front has emerged off the southeast coast of the United States, extending from 31N78W to Daytona Beach, Florida, based on the 1500 UTC surface map. Divergence aloft is helping to induce a few showers ahead of the boundary, especially north of 26N and west of 70W. Farther east, a cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N41W and continues southwestward to 30N48W, where it becomes a surface trough, stretching southwestward to near Puerto Rico. The trough is producing scattered showers from 20N to 26N and between 50W and 65W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are present north of these boundaries and east of 57W. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge centered SE of Newfoundland, resulting in moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by broad ridging. The pressure gradient between the broad ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain moderate to locally fresh easterly winds south of a line from the the western Canary Islands to the northern Leeward Islands. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging extending from high pressure over the NW Atlantic is contributing towards moderate or lighter winds across the region. A weak cold front is slowly emerging from the SE United States with scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with it. The front will move eastward toward the Greater Antilles later this week and into the weekend, bringing moderate to fresh winds. Otherwise, winds and seas away from the thunderstorms should remain quiescent for the next few days across the forecast waters. $$ DelgadoEURO model ensemble not showing much development at this time.
GEFS ensemble models continues to hint at possible some development.
EURO
CANADIAN model ensemble a bit more aggressive.
GEFS ensemble models not as aggressive.
Upper level conditions are unfavorable!
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Will be monitoring the Bay of Campeche Southern Gulf of Mexico
and the Northwest Caribbean June 12- June 18, 2024.
Tropical Cyclone formation probability are greater than 20%
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