..ERNESTO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS EVENING AUG 13, 2024 0509 PM EDT..

 

...ERNESTO HEADING TOWARD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT WHILE PASSING NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...

5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 13 Location: 18.0°N 64.1°W Moving: WNW at 18 mph Min pressure: 1001 mb Max sustained: 60 mph

..ERNESTO CONTINUES STRENGTHENING AUG 13, 2024 0200 PM EDT..

 

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERNESTO STILL STRENGTHENING... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN A FEW HOURS...

2:00 PM AST Tue Aug 13 Location: 17.5°N 63.5°W Moving: WNW at 18 mph Min pressure: 1003 mb Max sustained: 60 mph

..11 AM EDT AUG 13, 2024.. ..ERNESTO A BIT STRONGER.. ..SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR..

 

Well Ernesto is taking advantage of favorable upper-level environment and managed to strengthen a bit this morning.  Some additional strengthening cannot be ruled out.  

Sea Surface Temperatures are also warm enough to help Ernesto gather more steam.

Ernesto is coming loaded with precipitable water to so those in the islands can expect flash floods and deadly mudslides.

RTW

...ERNESTO A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT PASSES JUST SOUTH OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, VIEQUES, AND CULEBRA...

11:00 AM AST Tue Aug 13 Location: 16.9°N 62.6°W Moving: WNW at 18 mph Min pressure: 1003 mb Max sustained: 50 mph

Visible satellite shows Ernesto spinning up rather nicely with fair inflow but the outflow still needs some improvement. This is probably due to the interaction with the islands and dry air to the north of the tropical cyclone.

..TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO 0800 AM EDT UPDATE AUG 13, 2024..

 

Good morning. Now that Ernesto is slowing down for the eventual turn to the north, it is able to strengthen some more, and it is beginning to spin up nicely. Ernesto is in a favorable upper-level environment at this time. To the north of where Ernesto is located, upper-level shear is on the increase, so we will see if it hangs around as it tracks north away from the island change. 

 

Ernest accompanied with plenty of moisture, so flash flooding and mudslides will be the main concern for the islands and Puerto Rico. 

 

RTW

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE PASSING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...

8:00 AM AST Tue Aug 13 Location: 16.6°N 61.9°W Moving: W at 18 mph Min pressure: 1005 mb Max sustained: 45 mph

..TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS..

 

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...

5:00 PM AST Mon Aug 12 Location: 16.0°N 57.5°W Moving: WNW at 28 mph Min pressure: 1009 mb Max sustained: 40 mph