Friday, November 2, 2018
radar detecting water spout off shore Florida west coast
TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 2, 2018...1028 AM EDT
Tropical Wave:
1. A westward moving tropical wave near 28 degrees west is not showing g signs of organization.
2. A westward moving tropical wave near 58 degrees west is not showing signs of organization.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Sunday...RTW
Please note tropical waves added to this surface map were added by myself. I am borrowing their map until I can come e up with another map of my own.
Here is a link to there site:
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticAnalysis.aspx
Thursday, November 1, 2018
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS STILL TRACKING EAST
Latest radar still showing strong but broken line of storms over the northeast Gulf, Panhandle and Alabama tracking east. This line is prompting Marine warnings that could become severe thunderstorm warnings as it moves on shore. Just a heads up! RTW
COOLER, WETTER AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST THIS WINTER
A cold Front dropping a frontal boundary over the warm Gulf waters clashing with cold air from the north.
This will produce pre-front squall lines ahead of frontal boundary and enhance the severe storm chance with the possibility of tornadoes.
So unlike this past winter where we had La Nina conditions and dry weather and warmer winter this will be the opposite, wetter with severe weather, and colder temps...RTW
TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 1, 2018...1031 AM EDT
Tropical Waves:
1. A westward moving tropical wave near 23 degrees west is not showing signs of organization.
2. Another westward moving tropical wave near 52 degrees west is also not showing signs of organization.
Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Saturday.
SEVERE LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH ALABAMA AND FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING
Line of strong the severe storms tracking east over Alabama and the Florida Panhandle this morning. Stay alert
Wednesday, October 31, 2018
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR GUKF COAST STATES OCT 31, 2018
SPC AC 311956 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... The greatest risk for severe thunderstorms, capable of producing damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes, exists from southeast Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley through tonight. ...Discussion... Have removed severe probabilities from portions of the Big Country into north Texas, where the south/southeastward progression of a cold front and an expansive trailing precipitation shield are likely minimizing any severe threat. Additionally, Marginal probabilities have been extended westward towards El Paso, where forcing for ascent with the primary shortwave impulse may continue to support a localized hail/wind threat. Otherwise, a greater tornado/damaging wind potential is still expected to materialize late this evening into tonight from southeast Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley, and no changes have been made to the ongoing probabilities here. For more information on this threat, see the previous discussion below. ..Picca.. 10/31/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018/ ...TX today to LA/MS overnight... A midlevel shortwave trough now near El Paso will continue eastward across TX through tonight. Weak cyclogenesis is expected by this evening and continuing through tonight, along a pre-existing front from central TX to the Mid South. A moist low-level air mass is already present south of the front, with low 70s boundary-layer dewpoints spreading across the northwest Gulf coast. Gradual mass response to the cyclogenesis will result in strengthening low-level flow/shear, especially tonight across LA/MS. Ongoing convection in TX has largely remained elevated atop the frontal surface, but may gradually transition to surface-based storms along the front later this afternoon. Isolated strong-severe storms will also be possible this afternoon/evening into southwest TX, along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and in the zone of stronger low-midlevel ascent preceding the shortwave trough. Farther east, the ongoing warm sector convection across the upper TX coast should persist through the afternoon and spread slowly eastward/northeastward. Additional warm sector storm development is also expected tonight along the moist axis into southern LA. Wind profiles are only marginally favorable for organized/supercell storms at present across TX, with slow strengthening of vertical shear expected later this afternoon through tonight farther east toward the lower MS Valley. A few supercells could evolve from the ongoing upper TX coast convection, as well as embedded supercells/bowing segments along the front from central into east TX. This frontal convection will likely evolve into a line that will move eastward overnight, with an accompanying threat for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations. The more substantial supercell/tornado threat is expected overnight into parts of LA (and possibly MS) within the moist sector, and where low-level shear becomes the strongest. A strong tornado or two will be possible, especially with any pre-frontal supercell clusters, where effective SRH increases to greater than 400 m2/s2 in a moist environment with sufficient surface-based buoyancy.
Tornado Outlook
Strong Wind Outlook
Hail Outlook
Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 31, 2018...0940 AM EDT
Tropical Waves:
1. A westward moving tropical wave located near 46 degrees and 45 degrees west has some moisture associated with it, however, upper level shear is disrupting the shower and storm development at this time.
2. Another westward moving tropical wave near 60 degrees and 58 west is still not showing any signs of organization.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Friday...RTW
Tuesday, October 30, 2018
OSCAR UPDATE OCT 30, 2018... 1107 AM EDT
000 WTNT31 KNHC 301435 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 30 2018 ...OSCAR TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...HIGH SURF EXPECTED ALONG BERMUDA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 57.7W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 57.7 West. Oscar is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A north-northeastward or northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Oscar is expected to become a powerful extratropical low over the north-central Atlantic Ocean by late Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Oscar will affect Bermuda through Wednesday. Please consult products from your local weather office, as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 30, 2018... 1039 AM EDT
Tropical Waves:
1. A tropical wave near 40 degrees west has not changed much since yesterday.
2. A tropical wave near 57 degrees west is not showing signs of development.
Other than Hurricane Oscar, the tropics remain quiet...RTW
Monday, October 29, 2018
OSCAR UPDATE OCT 29, 2018...EDT
Hurricane Oscar:
000 WTNT31 KNHC 291434 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 29 2018 ...OSCAR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... ...NO THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 58.4W ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM SE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 58.4 West. Oscar is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northwest at a slower forward speed is expected later today, followed by a motion toward the north tonight. On Tuesday, Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed. The hurricane is then expected to accelerate quickly toward the northeast through the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through Tuesday, followed by gradual weakening thereafter. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 29, 2018...1123 AM EDT
Tropical waves:
1. A westward moving tropical between 35 and 30 degrees west is producing strong showers and storms south of the ITCZ or Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. I will monitor it closely however, upper level winds ahead of this wave are hostile at this time.
2. Another westward wave is between 54 and 50 degrees west and this wave is not showing any signs of organization...RTW
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