...TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE OCTOBER 30, 2025...

 

Aside from Hurricane Melissa, conditions across the tropics remain relatively quiet at this time. The Climate Prediction Center indicates a greater than 20% probability of tropical development in the northwestern, southern, and portions of the central Caribbean.

For more details, scroll to the bottom of this page to view the Global Tropics Hazards Outlook.

Please continue to keep Jamaica, Cuba, the Bahamas, Haiti, and the southern Dominican Republic in your thoughts and prayers as these regions recover from recent flash flooding and catastrophic wind damage.

— RTW

...MELISSA WILL BE APPROACHING BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...

11:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 Location: 27.8°N 71.7°W Moving: NNE at 24 mph Min pressure: 965 mb Max sustained: 105 mph

TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE OCTOBER 29, 2025

 

...MELISSA NOW OFFSHORE OF EAST CUBA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC... ...DAMAGING WINDS, FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE FOR CUBA, BAHAMAS, AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS TODAY...

11:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 Location: 21.4°N 75.6°W Moving: NE at 14 mph Min pressure: 974 mb Max sustained: 100 mph

...EXTREMELY DANAGEROUS CATOGORY 5 MELISSA HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD... ...IT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TURNING NORTHWARD TODAY...

 

The westward drift of Hurricane Melissa has prompted the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to nudge its official forecast track farther west this morning. Overnight model runs from both the Canadian (CMC) and European (ECMWF) weather models support this adjustment. Forecasters still expect the hurricane to begin turning north later today or tonight.

This morning’s updated track places the storm’s powerful core and eyewall closer to western Jamaica, according to the latest data. Ralph's Tropical Weather caution, however, that intense hurricanes like Melissa often wobble in the short term, creating temporary deviations from the forecast path.

No matter the exact track, Jamaica faces a high-impact event. Residents should brace for torrential rain capable of flash flooding and deadly landslides, along with catastrophic, life-threatening winds and storm surge beginning later this evening.

— RTW

Canadian Model:

European Model:

NHC Public Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/271447.shtml

...CATEGORY 5 MELISSA EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...

11:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 Location: 16.4°N 78.2°W Moving: W at 3 mph Min pressure: 908 mb Max sustained: 165 mph