The westward drift of Hurricane Melissa has prompted the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to nudge its official forecast track farther west this morning. Overnight model runs from both the Canadian (CMC) and European (ECMWF) weather models support this adjustment. Forecasters still expect the hurricane to begin turning north later today or tonight.
This morning’s updated track places the storm’s powerful core and eyewall closer to western Jamaica, according to the latest data. Ralph's Tropical Weather caution, however, that intense hurricanes like Melissa often wobble in the short term, creating temporary deviations from the forecast path.
No matter the exact track, Jamaica faces a high-impact event. Residents should brace for torrential rain capable of flash flooding and deadly landslides, along with catastrophic, life-threatening winds and storm surge beginning later this evening.
— RTW
Canadian Model:
European Model:
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NHC Public Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/271447.shtml
| ...CATEGORY 5 MELISSA EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY... | |||||
| 11:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 Location: 16.4°N 78.2°W Moving: W at 3 mph Min pressure: 908 mb Max sustained: 165 mph | |||||
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