MELISSA'S CENTER RELOCATED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST POSITION OCTOBER 24, 2025

 

I’ve been monitoring model tracks, satellite data, and NOAA hurricane hunter information throughout the morning. It’s clear that Melissa has shifted slightly eastward, and the center may be reforming farther east, as noted by the Air Force reconnaissance during a pass over the storm’s center.

What does this mean for the forecast track? If the center of Melissa is indeed farther east, the forecast track will also need to be adjusted in that direction. Some of the early-morning (00Z) model runs and ensemble guidance are already reflecting this trend. The forecast becomes more complicated as the center relocates, but one thing is clear — the direct impact expected on Jamaica and the indirect impacts on Haiti and the Dominican Republic are worsening, due to continued torrential rainfall expected from this system.

RTW

Melissa’s eastward drift is helping to keep the storm separated from the drier air to the west, allowing for improved organization. Additionally, the upper-level wind pattern in Melissa’s current location is somewhat more favorable for development.

RTW

...AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT MELISSA COULD BE REFORMING TO THE EAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

11:00 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 Location: 15.7°N 74.6°W Moving: ESE at 2 mph Min pressure: 1001 mb Max sustained: 45 mph