TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 3, 2025

 

I’m monitoring the central and southern Caribbean, where an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with a westward-moving tropical wave. If this system lingers, low pressure could develop in the southern Caribbean.

At this time, the Euro and Google DeepMind models do not indicate any significant development. However, the GFS and CMC ensemble models suggest that low pressure may form in the western or central Caribbean later on in the forecast.

RTW

Estoy monitoreando el centro y sur del Caribe, donde una zona de chubascos y tormentas eléctricas dispersas está asociada a una onda tropical que se desplaza hacia el oeste. Si este sistema persiste, podría desarrollarse una baja presión en el sur del Caribe.

Por el momento, los modelos Euro y Google DeepMind no indican ningún desarrollo significativo. Sin embargo, los modelos de conjunto GFS y CMC sugieren que podría formarse una baja presión en el oeste o centro del Caribe más adelante en el pronóstico.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031724
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

---------------------------------------------

083 
ACCA62 KNHC 031725
TWOSAT

Perspectivas del Tiempo Tropical
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
100 PM EST lunes 3 de noviembre de 2025

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de América:

No se espera la formación de ciclón tropical durante los próximos 7
días.

$$
Pronosticador Blake

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TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 31, 2025

 

Weather Update from RTW:

Now that Melissa has moved out of the area, I hope some of you are enjoying the cooler temperatures that followed the front moving off the East Coast yesterday.

What have I heard from Jamaica:

I’ve been closely monitoring the situation in Jamaica, and there’s finally some good news. The U.S. and several neighboring countries have stepped up, sending food and relief supplies by ship and cargo plane now that the airports have reopened for both relief and commercial flights. Local crews with bulldozers have also begun clearing roads in the hardest-hit areas after three long days.

Unfortunately, there’s still some heartbreaking news — many people remain missing, and as of this morning, the death toll stands at 19. Given how powerful and catastrophic this storm was, it’s sadly possible that more victims will be found. I continue to lift in prayer all those affected by Melissa, from Jamaica through the Bahamas, from which I’ve not yet received updates.

The Tropical Outlook:

Turning to the tropics, a few ensemble models are hinting at possible weak lows developing in the southern and western Caribbean, with some tracking into the Gulf. However, none of these systems appear strong at this time. Both the Euro ensemble and Google DeepMind ensemble models are showing very little development.

I’ll continue to keep a close eye on things, but for now, all remains quiet. Oh and a reminder that Saturday night you need to set you clock back one hour.

– RTW

...TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE OCTOBER 30, 2025...

 

Aside from Hurricane Melissa, conditions across the tropics remain relatively quiet at this time. The Climate Prediction Center indicates a greater than 20% probability of tropical development in the northwestern, southern, and portions of the central Caribbean.

For more details, scroll to the bottom of this page to view the Global Tropics Hazards Outlook.

Please continue to keep Jamaica, Cuba, the Bahamas, Haiti, and the southern Dominican Republic in your thoughts and prayers as these regions recover from recent flash flooding and catastrophic wind damage.

— RTW

...MELISSA WILL BE APPROACHING BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...

11:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 Location: 27.8°N 71.7°W Moving: NNE at 24 mph Min pressure: 965 mb Max sustained: 105 mph