000 WTNT42 KNHC 200242 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2017 This evening's satellite presentation shows an improved cloud pattern with a small central dense overcast feature developing just to the north of the circulation center. Earlier microwave imagery and this afternoon's aircraft reconnaissance fix indicate that the vertical structure of the cyclone is tilted toward the north due to the increasing southerly shear. No change in the current satellite intensity estimates from the previous advisory and the initial intensity remains at 35 kt. Interaction with the coast of Venezuela and persistent southerly shear produced by a mid-Atlantic trough digging into the central Caribbean Sea should initiate a weakening trend during the next 24 hours, or so. The large-scale models continue to show Bret dissipating over the Central Caribbean in about 2 days and the official forecast follows suit. The intensity forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is based on the IVCN consensus. The initial motion is estimated to be 285/20 kt, a little slower than 6 hours ago. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the previous advisory. A well-established mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of Bret should steer the system generally west-northwestward during the next 24 hours. Afterward, a more westward track is likely while a weaker, more shallow system moves within the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and very similar to the latest model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 10.0N 61.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 11.0N 63.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 12.1N 67.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 12.8N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 13.5N 75.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Monday, June 19, 2017
TROPICAL UPDATE FOR TORPICAL STORM BRET JUNE 19, 2017 1123 PM EDT
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE JUNE 19, 2017 1054 PM EDT
000 WTNT42 KNHC 200242 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2017 This evening's satellite presentation shows an improved cloud pattern with a small central dense overcast feature developing just to the north of the circulation center. Earlier microwave imagery and this afternoon's aircraft reconnaissance fix indicate that the vertical structure of the cyclone is tilted toward the north due to the increasing southerly shear. No change in the current satellite intensity estimates from the previous advisory and the initial intensity remains at 35 kt. Interaction with the coast of Venezuela and persistent southerly shear produced by a mid-Atlantic trough digging into the central Caribbean Sea should initiate a weakening trend during the next 24 hours, or so. The large-scale models continue to show Bret dissipating over the Central Caribbean in about 2 days and the official forecast follows suit. The intensity forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is based on the IVCN consensus. The initial motion is estimated to be 285/20 kt, a little slower than 6 hours ago. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the previous advisory. A well-established mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of Bret should steer the system generally west-northwestward during the next 24 hours. Afterward, a more westward track is likely while a weaker, more shallow system moves within the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and very similar to the latest model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 10.0N 61.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 11.0N 63.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 12.1N 67.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 12.8N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 13.5N 75.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
TRACKING THE TROPICS JUNE 19, 2017 1028 PM EDT
Other than BRET and PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) THREE there are no signs of tropical cyclone formation elsewhere.
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
BRET TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 19, 2017 0500 PM EDT
000 WTNT42 KNHC 192042 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017 500 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2017 An Air Force WC-130 invest mission this afternoon into the disturbance was able - after much effort - to find a well-defined closed circulation. The location of the center was substantially farther west than anticipated, as the system is now moving toward the west-northwest at a very quick 26 kt. Because the system has developed a well-defined center, it is now considered a tropical storm and has been named Bret. Convection continues to display robust bands on the northwestern and southeastern quadrants of the disturbance, as seen in the geostationary satellite and Trinidad radar imagery. The Hurricane Hunter mission also found maximum surface winds of about 35 kt, which agrees with the Dvorak 2.5 CI number from TAFB. These winds are only occurring in the northern semicircle due to the very quick translational velocity of the system. While the convective structure has been impressive today, it appears that the window of opportunity for the system to further develop is closing. Between interaction with the landmass of Venezuela and increasing vertical shear beginning in about a day, the intensity model guidance does not show any significant intensification. The official intensity forecast is steady state for about a day, followed by gradual weakening until dissipation in about three days. An alternative scenario - given that the disturbance has tracked left, or equatorward, of the guidance thus far - is that it could remain south of the forecast track and dissipate over Venezuela and never reach the Caribbean Sea. The system is anticipated to slow somewhat, but still move at a rapid rate toward the west-northwest until dissipation, steered by strong trade winds south of the Bermuda high. The official track forecast is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique and is faster compared with the previous advisory, due to the farther west initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 9.4N 59.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 10.1N 62.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 11.3N 65.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 12.2N 68.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 13.0N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
TRACKING THE TROPICS JUNE 19 2017 0424 PM EDT
Three waves in the tropics other than the two systems that are being monitored closely these waves are not showing signs of organization at this time...RTW
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
INVEST 93L TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 19, 2017 0401 PM
I WILL MORE THAN LIKE HAVE TO UPDATE THIS INFO AGAIN AS SOON AS THE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS IN AT NHC AND THEY DETERMINE WHAT STATUS TO GIVE THIS STORM SYSTEM.
SO FAR FOLKS FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM.
SO FAR FOLKS FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM.
TRACKING THE TROPICS JUNE 19, 2017 1222 PM EDT
There three tropical waves over the Atlantic and so far those are not showing signs of organization.
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 19, 2017 0924 AM EDT
INVEST 92L, TD TWO OR BRET IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF SHEAR AS IT PASSES 55WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE A SMALL COMPACT STORM AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS IT ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
INVEST 93L STILL ORGANIZING AND TAKING ONE OF THOSE WEIRD GULF OF MEXICO STORMS SHAPE. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ANYWHERE BETWEEN NORTH TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST. KEEP CLOSELY MONITORING AND BE READY TO ACT IF WATCH OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA...RTW
INVEST 93L STILL ORGANIZING AND TAKING ONE OF THOSE WEIRD GULF OF MEXICO STORMS SHAPE. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ANYWHERE BETWEEN NORTH TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST. KEEP CLOSELY MONITORING AND BE READY TO ACT IF WATCH OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA...RTW
Sunday, June 18, 2017
UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST
Today JUNE 18, 2017 0342 AM EDT
Mostly cloudy
with showers likely during the day: Highs
around 84°F. Heat index around 93°F. Southeast
wind 8 to 16 MPH, gusting to 21 MPH.
Chance of rain 70
percent.
Mostly cloudy
with thunderstorms likely during the night: Lows around 79°F. East southeast wind to 15
MPH. Chance of rain 70
percent.
Monday Jun 19
Mostly cloudy
with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 95°F. Southeast wind to 16 MPH,
gusting to 21 MPH.
Chance of rain 60
percent.
Mostly cloudy
with showers likely during the night: Lows
around 79°F. East southeast wind to 15 MPH, gusting to 20 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday Jun 20
: Mostly
cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 16 MPH,
gusting to 21 MPH.
Chance of rain 30
percent.
Partly cloudy
with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 79°F. East southeast wind to 13
MPH. Chance of rain 30
percent.
Wednesday Jun 21
Partly cloudy
with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat
index around 99°F. Southeast wind to 10 MPH, gusting to 15 MPH. Chance
of rain 50 percent.
Partly cloudy
with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 79°F. Southeast wind to 8 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday Jun 22
Partly cloudy
with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat
index around 99°F. Southeast wind 8 to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Partly cloudy
with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 79°F. East southeast wind to 10
MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday Jun 23
Partly cloudy
with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat
index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Partly cloudy
with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 79°F. East wind to 13 MPH. Chance
of rain 20 percent.
Saturday Jun 24
Partly cloudy
with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat
index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.
FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR IS COURTESY OF N.W.S. MIAMI FLORIDA
EYE ON THE TROPICS JUNE 18, 2017 0313 AM EDT... "HAPPY FATHER'S DAY"...
INVEST 92L STILL NO CHANGE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT IS SLOWLY TRACKING TOWARD 55 WEST WHERE THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE AT THIS TIME.
ALSO AS THIS SYSTEM ENTERS THE EAST CARIBBEAN THERE IS NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR NEAR 65 WEST THAT COULD ALSO HINDER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE 40% WITHIN 48HRS. AND A MEDIUM CHANCE 50% WITHIN 5-DAYS.
NOTE THAT IS A DECREASE FROM 60% EARLIER DUE FORESEEABLE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
INVEST 93L IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP. THIS SYSTEM SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOW BEING ENHANCED BY A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS FIRING UP HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN CUBA, CAYMAN ISLANDS, JAMAICA AND NORTHEAST COAST OF NICARAGUA.
THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE 40% WITHIN 48HRS. AND AN MEDIUM CHANCE 80% WITHIN 5-DAYS.
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT STILL UNCERTAIN WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING TEXAS, LOUSIANA, AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.
I SUGGEST THAT THOSE WHO LIVE IN THE GULF COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM...RTW
ALSO AS THIS SYSTEM ENTERS THE EAST CARIBBEAN THERE IS NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR NEAR 65 WEST THAT COULD ALSO HINDER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE 40% WITHIN 48HRS. AND A MEDIUM CHANCE 50% WITHIN 5-DAYS.
NOTE THAT IS A DECREASE FROM 60% EARLIER DUE FORESEEABLE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
INVEST 93L IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP. THIS SYSTEM SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOW BEING ENHANCED BY A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS FIRING UP HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN CUBA, CAYMAN ISLANDS, JAMAICA AND NORTHEAST COAST OF NICARAGUA.
THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE 40% WITHIN 48HRS. AND AN MEDIUM CHANCE 80% WITHIN 5-DAYS.
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT STILL UNCERTAIN WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING TEXAS, LOUSIANA, AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.
I SUGGEST THAT THOSE WHO LIVE IN THE GULF COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM...RTW
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